Weighing in against the pundits!

Your writer has never lost a bet on a Canadian election.  He is hardly about to lose this time.  We are looking at a 37-day campaign.  This is Day Two.  Over the next three weeks, there will be considerable jockeying for position.  To start to firm up your forecasts before then is a mistake.  Many things happen in campaigns.

But by April 18, we will be ready to put figures to our forecast.  Easter comes the following weekend and some people will want to pray.  Never did believe in that very much but if it helps people get their minds around things, that is fine.  And by then there will have been some debates and a few surprises.  People will have a better perspective of their voting options.

When we publish our figures in this blog, there will be people who will tell you ‘That guy is smoking something strange.’  No we are not.  We will remind you that last year it was almost impossible to find anyone to bet against us.  It was the campaign manager who we took.  We had shown him our figures for the outcome for mayor and he said that we were out to lunch on the figures for the three also-rans.  Even the candidate agreed with him but our candidate was not about to put money in the pot.  It was great collecting the ten bucks from the campaign manager.

There are too many readers of this blog to take on all comers because we do not make bets we cannot cover and easily pay.  And it is in Canadian money so none of our non-Canadian readers can take advantage of a chance to lose their greenbacks, yen, pounds, kroner or marks.  Not that our foreign readers would disagree with us anyway.  If they have not figured out that we have a liberal bias by now, they do not read us very often.

The bet limit per individual will be ten bucks.  It will be on the honour system.  Nobody likes to look cheap and welsh on a ten-buck bet.  You can bet less, but once the betting hits my limit, I will tell the latecomers that the betting window is closed.

As things stand now, the pollsters are dealing with old information.  They are spouting to support a position instead of really thinking it through.  They will change their story later without hint of embarrassment.

As of now, the news media are just showing their bias.  Any newspaper that hangs repeated stories on the Conservative stance about some fancied ‘coalition’ is in the Conservative Party’s pocket.  They will be very slow to relate to the realities of this election because it is unlikely that the Conservatives can hold their position.

The trust factor has yet to be measured and the censure of the Harper government by parliament is not yet understood by Canadians.  The pathetic budget effort of Jim Flaherty will soon be forgotten and voters will be examining the federal party leaders in a new light.

We are looking forward to it.

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Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  peter@lowry.me

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