Every election should have a morning line. As the polls are already open for advance voting in Quebec, this is a bit late but the situation in Quebec is still fluid. While the polls are showing the Quebec Liberal Party in the lead it is only marginal. As happens in any horse race, things change. And there is always that extra juice caused by momentum. It is what makes the race interesting.
Quebec Liberal Party – 2 to 1
Phillippe Couillard and the Quebec Liberals are currently favourites. Couillard has been shaking off the increasing attacks on him and his party since Quebecers deduced that he came out ahead on the first debate. In the second debate, he held out against increasingly desperate attempts at smearing him with past concerns both real and imagined. His opponents were hurting themselves with some of these attempts.
Parti Québécois – 3 to 1
Pauline Marois and the Parti Québécois have dropped to second place because of the mistakes they have been making with their campaign focus. It has become less clear as the campaign goes on who might lead Quebec into a referendum and the ultimate role of Pierre Karl Péladeau. He could be more of a liability than anyone expected.
Coalition Avenir Québec – 10 to 1
Coalition Avenir Québec and Leader François Legault are losing votes steadily to the Quebec Liberals. It is these votes that are increasing the likelihood of a Liberal majority.
Québec Solidaire – 50 to 1
Québec Solidaire with its collective leadership has actually stayed the course through this election and might hold on to its two seats. The only value to the party is if Pauline Marois needs just two seats to keep the Liberals from taking over. It would make for a very volatile few years in Quebec politics.
Liberal majority government – Even money
While the Quebec Liberal Party is far too right wing for Babel-on-the-Bay to support, there is no question that the economic benefits of a stable majority government are critical to the wellbeing of Quebec citizens at this time. There is no question also that the simple plurality of Quebec votes will favour the Liberals. It will not necessarily translate into a majority of seats in the Quebec Legislature. Bonne chance!
Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry
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