The Morning Line: Alberta 2015.

The May 5 provincial election in Alberta is something of a wake up call as Albertans shake themselves from the Tar Sands dream. It was probably the recent Prentice austerity budget more than anything else that told people that times are changing. There is no question but Albertans need to adapt to reality. There is just is no way they will like it.

In producing a Morning Line for this election you start by ignoring all the polls. Albertans lie to pollsters. They have been lying to them since the days of Bible Bill Aberhart. And if you had voted for Aberhart and his funny-money Social Credit, you would also have lied about it.

The only reality in this election is the 40-year record of the Longest Continuing Progressive Conservative dynasty. Prentice will not win the election with any rhetoric, he will just quietly accept the honour. The facts are that Albertans feel they have no choice. And they are hardly the type of people to take chances.

Progressive Conservative Party – 3 to 2

The only interesting question in the Alberta election is which party will come second. Rachel Notley and her New Democrats could be the comers. Notley has the political credentials and the trust that can make her the opposition leader. The provincial Liberals are lying low, waiting for the federal election and leaving the field open.

New Democratic Party – 5 to 1

And that leaves ‘what’s his name’ and the Wildrose Party. This situation is probably the hardest to read. The Wildrose is in disarray, lacking strong leadership or rational platform. It is difficult, even in Alberta, to be more right-wing than the Progressive Conservatives. It is too easy to think of Wildrose as a pale copy of the American Tea Party or the radical right of the federal Conservatives. Frankly, it looks like Jim Prentice’s strategy has hurt Wildrose more than him. It will be interesting to see the size of the rump that Wildrose will have in the Legislature after the election.

Wildrose Party – 12 to 1

To be fair, we should give a figure on the Alberta Liberal Party. The problem is we have never seen a situation where a mainstream party fails to nominate candidates in virtually every riding. A partial list is tantamount to surrender.

Alberta Liberal Party – 20 to 1

-30-

Copyright 2015 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to peter@lowry.me

Tags: , ,

Comments are closed.