Gratuitous advice on snapshots in time.

You know that you get what you pay for but this advice is free anyway. You should try not to get your knickers in a knot every time a poll is announced that says the Republican candidate might win the presidency in the U.S. As horrifying as the thought might be Canadians are resilient and we can handle it.

And remember that polls are just another opinion. They are based on limited information, suppositions about voting intentions and some braggadocio. The only poll that will count is the one taking place on election day. Even if things go south then, you can always take solace on election night in the belief that the voters usually get what they deserve. Not that we should be over confident. Canada would not come off unscathed by a Republican win either.

But we can always come back to the morning line. While Babel-on-the-Bay has redefined its morning line on the Republican candidate to a 4 to 1 bet, we are holding firm on Hillary Clinton at 2 to 1. Despite the ups and downs of the pollsters, the two candidates can change positions every few days without upsetting the end result.

The immutable facts of the election are that some Republican voters will refuse to vote for their party’s candidate. Some will stay home. Some will not vote for the Electoral College that chooses the President.

And the sad news for the Republicans is that many of those angry, ignorant, irrational white men who say they are going vote for the Republican candidate are going to forget to go to the polls on election day. Going to vote is just not one of the important things on their agenda. And the Republican Party has better things to do than help turn out the vote for a candidate who might only embarrass them.

Conversely, many Democratic voters will declare a holiday on November 8, 2016 and will vote as early and as often as they can. There will be a preponderance of women voters. They will not all be fond of Mrs. Clinton but they sure as hell do not want the alternative. They will be joined by many Latino voters. They have a special incentive to vote. They know that walls do not make a friendly border. And every Muslim who has a vote will want to exercise it as a protest against bigotry. Other people who have known or witnessed bigotry and racial strife in the United States of America might want to join them.

But it is always that element of the unknown that makes for a horse race. We are always best to prepare for the worst and to hope for the best. God help us.


Copyright 2016 © Peter Lowry

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