Morning Line: B.C. Provincial Election – May 2017.

This morning line is not up to our usual standards. We simply lack the complete information needed to assess the public mood. All we can do is provide a baseline for betting based on what stats and performances are available. And there is no getting around the fact that B.C. voters have fooled us all at one time or another.

BC New Democrats: 4 to 1

With an untried leader and the current situation, we would not bet the farm on this one. John Horgan and his team need 44 seats in the legislature for a majority and that might be hard to do with the way the votes might split. It all depends on the support for the Greens. A strong Green Party showing will hurt the NDP—and keep the Liberals in power.

BC Liberals: 6 to 1

A minority would not work for Christy Clark and her business-oriented Liberals. For them it is 44 seats or bust. Most of the advice we are hearing is that Clark and team have run out of rabbits to pull from the hat this time.

BC Green: 15 to 1

With only one seat in the legislature, we are wondering why all the optimism from our Green friends. While we have been seeing some drift of NDP support to the Greens, we think they might drift back when push comes to shove. If Ms. Clark sees enough of them wandering off from the NDP, she’ll be dancing a jig through the election.

BC Progressive Conservatives: 50 to 1

We know they are out there. The problem in B.C. is that nobody can tell the difference between a provincial Liberal and a provincial Conservative. And as of this date there are more Libertarians nominated than Conservatives. It does not look good for either party.

Corruption: 2 to 1

This is a special category of the Morning Line. Our readers across the rest of Canada will be surprised to hear that there are virtually no limits on political contributions in British Columbia. Last year, in a non-election year, Christy Clark’s government is reported to have raised over $12 million, two-thirds of that from business and about 10 per cent from outside B.C.

It is reports that Clark not only gets her premier’s pay from the legislature but also takes additional payment from these donations that amazes this politico. If the premier of any other province in Canada did that there would be serious calls for impeachment and/or criminal charges

Here we thought we were aware of most possibly corrupt practices in politics and this one blew us away.

We are pleased to note that the provincial NDP has promised to put an end to this practice. It might help bring B.C. politics out of the middle ages.


Copyright 2017 © Peter Lowry

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