The Morning Line: 43rd Canadian General Election

Welcome to Babel-on-the-Bay’s starting point in understanding the coming election. Bear in mind that these are starting odds only. There will likely be changes by election day. Be sure you get full odds on any of your wagers.

And, believe me, this is not a simple calculation. It has never been more difficult. In the past five years there have been far too many surprise elections. It made us question our judgement. It certainly made us question the judgement of the voters. Our guess is that it is most unlikely that any party can win a majority of seats as a result of this election. The odds are for the possibility of any party forming a majority government.

Liberal Party: 2 to 5 – Likely Seats: 152

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has neither justified all his actions nor quieted concerns but he is the best choice for prime minister in a weak field. His Johnny Appleseed scattering of goodies during the campaign did him little good. He needs to stay close to home and learn what leadership means over the next four years.

Conservative Party: 3 to 5 – Likely Seats: 145

This was Andrew Scheer’s race to win until voters got to know him. He is not the choirboy he says he is. As he is unlikely to win, the conservative knives will be out for him on his return to Ottawa.

Green Party: 9 to 5 – Likely Seats: 18

Elizabeth May’s greens are coming on strong and are likely to replace the NDP as the third party after this election. She needs to learn that voters can remember one or two promises but when the promises come by the bushel, the memory no longer functions well.

New Democratic Party: 15 to 1 – Likely Seats: 15

Jagmeet Singh is going to rue the day he swamped Canadian  NDP membership to steal the leadership of a dying party. If only he knew where they wanted to go!

Bloc Québécois: 50 to 1 – Likely Seats: 8

Leader Yves-François Blanchet stepped up to bring the leaderless Quebec party into this election. He will get the troublemaker vote from Quebec’s aging rural separatists for a pointless four years.

People’s Party of Canada: 100 to 1 – Seats: 0

Leader Maxime Bernier came second to Andrew Scheer for the conservative leadership. He is a libertarian and a loser.

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Copyright 2019 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  peter@lowry.me

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