The upcoming battle for the GTA.

Some pundits are under the impression that the key battle in the coming federal election is in the greater Toronto area (GTA). They might be able to give logical support for their assumptions but I would not suggest that it is all a done deal. Some things have changed and we need to pay attention.

It takes a while for population shifts to be recognized by census and there will certainly be some new electoral districts to be considered in a few years. In the meantime, there will be some surprises in store as assumptions are not met.

To start with there is a band of ridings that starts outside of Ottawa on the east and heads toward the Windsor area. It is what we used to think of as dominated by rural conservative and Ontario Landowner voters. Many of these ridings have been absorbing newcomers who are former city dwellers and quite often liberal voters. This offers some opportunities for aspiring liberal candidates.

It is unlikely that Trudeau and his trusted henchmen will understand it. Even more serious, they could not take much advantage of the situation. They have let those ridings drift away from them. They have destroyed the base of liberal support in that area. When you have spent the last six years doing nothing with the liberals there but demand they send money, there might not be much organization left.

And we should also wonder about the shape of the liberal organization in Toronto itself. There could be a few surprises for Trudeau’s liberals in the 25 liberal seats in the city. Why? It is a tired vote. The supposed liberal supporters will be harder to motivate. These people have been taken for granted by the Trudeau liberals and some are looking for an alternative. A couple ridings could even fall to the green party—to the disappointment of the new democrats. It should come as no surprise that a higher green vote will be mostly at the expense of the NDP. What will be concerning is the slightly higher percentage of conservative votes. Combined with a slightly lower vote for the liberals could put four to five ridings at risk. Justin Trudeau should not bank on moving back to a majority government.


Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

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