Posts Tagged ‘Liberal Leadership’

Looking ahead to Canada’s 2015 election.

Tuesday, May 1st, 2012

If you do not plan for future events, they will happen to you. Prime Minister Harper might be enjoying the one-year anniversary of his majority government but we have to make sure, it never happens again. Planning must be ongoing.

The good news for the next election is that there will be a re-alignment of seats in the more populated areas of the country. Ontario will be a major fighting ground and it will have 30 more seats to be contested. And most of those new seats can be won by the Liberal Party. They will be carved out of the new suburbs around the major cities. They will be predominantly younger Canadians with small children. These voters represent our country’s future.

And they want the hope and promise of a liberal future. These are people who have grown up with the Internet. These voters are communications savvy and Liberals know how to communicate with them. The women voters are strong-willed, have their own opinions and share the management of the household. And the women are the ones most likely to reject social conservatism. Both the men and women reject the collectivism of unions and socialist parties. The wives share ideas with their neighbours while the men share their lawn implements. Men and women both lean to liberalism with its emphasis on the rights of the individual in our society.

The basic tenets of the 2015 election will be the Canadian belief in the individual’s right to medical services, their right to access to education and the firm belief that  Canada’s role in the world is being eroded by Prime Minister Harper’s Conservatives. The only concern for the Liberals will be the question of how far removed by then we will be from the world’s financial problems. The economic troubles were a key factor in Stephen Harper winning a majority in 2011. The only way the Liberal Party could overcome Harper’s economic credibility would be to draft Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney as its next leader.

But the leadership of the Liberal Party should go to the young. We already know the other parties are lead by greybeards. Harper and Mulcair have both exceeded their ‘best before’ dates. They are of the past. The Liberal leader must exude energy and purpose. It is not chronological age we are stressing but the exuberance. Liberalism has exciting ideas and excitement can grow.

The Liberals have to show their new leader leading a spin class, enjoying a 10K run, talking to economists, leading business leaders and comfortable with children. In addition, this paradigm will be invulnerable to Conservative attack advertising because he or she is every Canadian.

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Copyright 2012 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  peter@lowry.me

Canada’s Conservatives face war on two fronts.

Monday, March 26th, 2012

The news media will be paying an inordinate amount of attention to the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair for the next while. He won that party’s terribly dull leadership race and earned the attention. It would be a mistake though to think this means a breather for the Liberal’s Interim Leader Bob Rae.

The Conservatives ensured there would be no break for Rae with those ridiculous attack ads that are inundating the Harper-friendly television networks. We have listened to many theories about this attack from Conservatives, as well as seasoned political observers, and it is still not clear. It is like a bunch of young ruffians poking sticks into a wild animal’s den. You hope the creature is not rabid when they get bitten but they will certainly deserve a few scars. All that the Conservatives have proved so far is that they have more money to spend than they need. And they are not very imaginative.

We can only hope that Liberals do not respond to Bob Rae’s plea for additional funds from the party to pay for Liberal attack ads. If Bob Rae has a shred of dignity left, he will make all his attacks on the Conservatives in the House of Commons.

And that is where the most telling assaults will be made for the next year. The Conservatives are vulnerable on many issues. They lack depth (and brains) in their front bench and will have a difficult time fending off two aggressive opponents in the House.

The worst result of the stupid attack ad is that Rae might decide to enter the race to be leader of the party. That would be a mistake. What Rae did in the 1990s in Ontario was not what the attack ad says. What he failed to do at that time as Premier was to lead his party. He is a very experienced and articulate politician. He is just not a leader.

By having Bob Rae working in parliament during the Liberal leadership contest, the party will be in far better position than the NDP during their contest. The Interim Leader of NDP was virtually ignored while the NDP front-bench was out chasing the leadership. This will not be the case for the Liberals.

The one-two punch of Mulcair and Rae spell trouble for Mr. Harper. If Harper was weak in Quebec before this, he is now guaranteed that his way is blocked in that province. And Mulcair and the NDP are not the only beneficiaries of knee-capping Harper there. The Liberals can only grow in Quebec and we have hardly heard the last of the separatists.

We can look forward to the renewed challenge to Mr. Harper in the House. Just remember guys, the enemy of my enemy is my friend!

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Copyright 2012 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  peter@lowry.me

Has the Liberal leadership race started?

Sunday, January 22nd, 2012

The news media is panicking.  They are concerned that the Liberal Party of Canada has no contenders for its upcoming leadership convention scheduled for sometime in 2013.  They figure Bob Rae is the logical winner because he is the interim leader. When Rae took on the interim leadership, he promised to not run at the upcoming convention. Do they think the Liberal Party would want someone who did not keep his word?

There is no question but Bob Rae is doing a good job as interim leader.  He is keeping the caucus focused, he is speaking out effectively for the Liberal Party and he has kept the party in a position of de facto opposition while the official NDP opposition fights its own leadership contest.  He has impressed a lot of people with his skill at the interim job.

But that is all it can be. There is a solid core within the Liberal Party who would never accept him as full-time leader.  It is not just the fact that he was NDP Premier in Ontario in the 1990s but he showed a serious lack of political sensitivity back then and it is not something that people can really learn. You have got it or you have not got it.  Bob, nice guy that he is, has not got it. He makes a great interim leader.  That is as good as he gets.

Bob Rae sees himself as a career politician. And he is. In that regard, he is very much like Bob Nixon, Leader of the Ontario Liberals back in the 1960s and 1970s. Bob Nixon was Treasurer in the Peterson Government in the 1980s. He brought the same love of the political scene to his work for the party as Bob Rae. The difference is that Bob Nixon is probably the best Premier of Ontario that we almost had.

When the media think that Bob Rae has some kind of a lock on the Liberal Party leadership, they just show how little they know about the party. Do they really think that Martha Hall Findlay is out for the count? She is one of the smartest and most determined women in Canadian politics and if she ever gets the kind of political management of her campaign that she needs, she could be almost unbeatable for the leadership.

If the media people have never heard of MP Dominic LeBlanc from New Brunswick, their research on up and coming Liberal leadership prospects is sadly lacking.  LeBlanc needs to spread his wings and get out and meet his party more often but he carries large credentials and four winning elections in his party pack.

And we have not even considered MP Justin Trudeau, who is wisely holding himself off from being a contender.  A lot can happen in the next year and many Liberals are waiting for him to answer the call.

We could keep going and come up with five or six good potential candidates.  The leadership of this party is no small prize.  It is a party Bob Rae is helping to rebuild and he will earn our approval for that—just not the leadership.

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Copyright 2012 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  peter@lowry.me