We used to worry in political campaigns about when we peaked. This was a point when you could not get any further up the hill and had started going back down. I think it had something to do with the pollsters. They always wanted to show movement. Who wants to pay for another poll if there is no movement in the figures?
And the best times of all for pollsters is when they show a potential change of government—like now with this theoretical lead over the federal liberals by Poilievre’s conservatives. We know, of course, with the anomalies of first-past-the-post voting that there is no sure thing. Canada seems to tilt to the whims of the voters. Atlantic Canada makes the most of its votes and spreads them across the two major parties. Quebec makes the liberals look good. Quebecers neither like nor trust Pierre Poilievre.
The decision for Canada used to be made in Ontario but this is a new ball game. The growing distrust and dislike for provincial conservative Doug Ford in Ontario, will hurt Poilievre.
In fact, Poilievre is hanging in the balance in that province.
Poilievre’s sweet spot is west of the Manitoba border. His only stumble across the three Prairie Provinces is Candice Bergen from Manitoba and the damage to the conservative brand by Danielle Smith in Alberta. Bergen, a previous stalwart of the party has resigned. She calls it retiring. If you know a bit about Bergen as an MP, you can understand that she would not be overwhelmed with the prospect of staying on under Poilievre’s version of leadership.
There are a few other conservative MPs we will be watching closely as the country heads towards the inevitable Poilievre vs Trudeau election. Poilievre takes too many cues from Donald Trump in the U.S. And there are some Canadian conservatives who know the difference between political exaggerations and outright lies. It will be interesting to see if Poilievre can get some of his claims closer to the truth.
What Poilievre does not seem to realize is that his insults directed at Mr. Trudeau are also belittling the Canadians who previously put their trust in Justin. Just remember that old line from the Christian Bible: The truth will set you free.
Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry
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