Category: Federal Politics

“Oh, you aren’t calling an election?”

by Peter Lowry

It was fun the other day watching Farah Nasser of Global Television sparring verbally with prime minister Justin Trudeau. It was more notable for the lack of information than the gaining of knowledge. It was the evasion of a politician against the demand for answers of the skilled journalist.

While we moved to Barrie, Ontario more that 16 years ago, the wife and I still watch Toronto television news. It is not that we fail to learn about what is going on in Barrie but we are news junkies, more than most Canadians. And it keeps us in touch with a city that has been a major part of our lives.

During our time in Barrie, we also drifted away from the evening news on the CBC and CTV and settled on the Global news. We find the repetitious nature of the 90 minutes of news and commercials allows us to leisurely prepare dinner at the same time. We both like the anchor role played by Farah Nasser.

Neither of us liked co-anchor Alan Carter’s provincial news show on weekends as much but by putting him with Farah for the evening news has smoothed out some of his rough edges. Combined, Global got a winning combination.

The recent interview with the prime minister confirmed our opinion that Farah was also the tougher of the two with politicians. She was not going to take the guff that Trudeau was trying to feed her. Farah was not buying it. Global technicians went to a lot of trouble to give the PM a pleasant and warm setting for the interview. He was not getting away easily.

When Farah started to narrow down on the key question of why the PM was criss-crossing the country offering goodies to Canadians, he was in trouble. She was hardly buying his stock of talking points. Sure, she had important questions about the burial sites at the former residential schools for Canadian aboriginal children. She got the properly concerned and somber answers. No Canadian politician has yet to address this situation with any sense of urgency.

But the PM was not allowed to get off the hook on the immenent election in Canada. Deny, if he wishes, but he appears to be having fun watching the opponent politicians scurrying to follow him in promises. They would even kiss babies if it was not for the pandemic!

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to a new e-mail:

[email protected]

Never Bet Based on Polls.

by Peter Lowry

From day one of involvement in politics, I was leery of polls. Even the polls that I did along with my late friend Keith Davey were subject to careful scrutiny, analysis and adjustments. Unless you know just who did the poll, what techniques they were using and how they balanced out the demographics, you have every reason to be skeptical.  And this includes polls that I scripted and trained volunteers to carry out. Polls have a range of error for good reason.

Polls have become more difficult as telephone technology advances. There are far too many people who will not answer a call if they do not recognize the number that is calling. There are no reliable directories. And no, not everybody carries around a smart phone.

But it would sure help if everyone who said they were going to vote did so. One of the hardest predictions is the part when you estimate how many will get to the polls before they close. There is nobody more disappointed than the politician who loses by less that a hundred votes.

With my experience in elections, it is tough for me to find people who will make a bet against me, but when I am wrong, I am very wrong. The 2016 American presidential election proved every forecaster wrong when Clinton won the popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes and lost the presidency. I lost all bets in that election but won them back in 2020.

I picked this topic today because of the reaction some people had to a recent federal poll in Canada. They were excited that Justin Trudeau might get his comeuppance. It seems that this poll showed the conservatives coming up to within 2 per cent of the liberals. Sorry, that was just one poll of many. If that one poll excites you, get ready for a roller coaster ride to election day.

A few tips might help. The liberal vote is always slightly under-estimated, as is the conservative vote. This reflects the ability of those parties to get out their vote. And with the larger number of advance polls and the ease of taking advantage of them, the parties are doing even better. Conversely the new democrats and greens will be slightly over-represented in the polls because there is far less effort in electoral districts where they are not expected to win.

Remember that the only poll that matters is the one counted on election day.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

In Defence of the Damned.

by Peter Lowry

It is not often that the Toronto Star provides free advertising for the corrupters among us. Instead of the ladies and gentlemen so described paying for the Star’s attention, it might even be grounds for some charges of defamation. It is hardly a public service for Star reporters to say that these people did something wrong by representing the interests of their clients to the Ontario government. It is particularly disturbing that the Star charges that these conservative lobbyists cashed in because of their relations with the conservative party.

As a person who was lobbying government many years ago, I object on these lobbyists’ behalf. Though, I admit that for the conservative government to be so easily used in this manner should be a disappointment to the citizens of Ontario. My experience at lobbying was something of an accident. In fact, until a chance meeting, I actually looked down on those who lobbied.

What changed my mind about it was a conversation I had with someone whom I trusted and respected as a fellow liberal. We bumped into each other on the Wellington Street bridge over the Rideau Canal in Ottawa. I was heading from my hotel to the Centre Block of the parliament buildings. He was on his way from the prime minister’s office (PMO) to a meeting. He was a defeated candidate in the recent election and was now working in the PMO for prime minister Pierre Trudeau.

Since both our meetings had to do with lobbying government, the topic came up. He pointed out that as a previous lobbyist, he was in a very different position evaluating lobbyist pitches for the PMO. He explained the need in government to hear different opinions and the value of these lobbying efforts. He assured me that as long as I was up-front about my bias and that I was on retainer of the subject company, it was on the up and up.

I also learned very quickly in that role that I had to work twice as hard with the civil servants. You learn to never underestimate the influence of a deputy minister, a director general or anybody from the Privy Council Office.

Interesting enough, the largest contract I ever personally undertook for the federal government was when the Mulroney conservatives were in power.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can now be sent to:

[email protected]

Requiem for Canada’s Greens.

by Peter Lowry

We thought we knew you. You have disappointed us. When Canada needs you, where will you be? You are our green initiative. You are not the back of the hand from the conservatives. You are not the ‘by the way’ of the new democrats. You are not the hypocrisy of the Trudeau liberals. You are green.

Under the direction of your determined Elizabeth May, your party grew. You became a political party meeting a clear need in society and with a future. You were recognized for your concern for the environment.

Combined with the growing concern of our citizens over the frequent extremes of environmental phenomenon, we realized the cruelty of the gathering storm. It is the realization that Mother Nature is pissed with us humans.

We thought your party had the direction to safety. Obviously, you do not. You wore out your leader Elizabeth May. You sought new leadership. You used preferential balloting in a large field of candidates. You drilled down in the count to the compromise of the second choice of most party members. You chose compromise with a compromised leader. You chose to challenge.

But it was not your membership that is displeased. It is your executive. You gave them a difficult relationship. You challenged them. Your new leader challenged them. Both sides were bruised in the ensuing battles. Nobody has stepped forward to compromise. When there is no compromise, reason is too often the softest voice. You have to listen for it.

Your new leader had her dukes up from day one. This is not a person who compromises. She wants a liberal stronghold in Toronto for her electoral district. She wants to keep running up against that wall of liberal red. If you were Jewish and black and female, you too would be a fighter. You would have the guilt of the Hebrews, the fear of persecution for being black and the weaknesses of the female challenging a male world. What she really needed was more of the chutzpah of the Jewish diaspora, the strength of the black and the wiles of a woman.

But she lacks understanding of her role. She is untrained in the ways of politicians. She lacks the ability to lead. She is fighting windmills. Too bad.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to a new e-mail:

[email protected]

An Optimistic Jagmeet Singh?

by Peter Lowry

Ottawa-based Toronto Star reporter Susan Delacourt tells us that new democratic party leader Jagmeet Singh is on a roll. She tells us that Singh has reasons to be optimistic about the election we could be in shortly. While it seems mean to poop on Jagmeet’s parade, the truth is the polls err. He will be lucky to have 24 NDP members still in the house after the election.

The sad situation is that Jagmeet does not have much support among the other 23 NDP members. Oh sure, they all voice their support, but you might not want to delve too deeply into the depth of that loyalty. And none, realistically, can see him as prime minister of Canada. The optimism of Canadians does not run that deep either.

What Canadians have not seen from Jagmeet is leadership. His decency is not questioned. Nor is his concern for others. His experience as a lawyer is one of his strengths. His experience in martial arts probably contributes to his self-confidence. He is an intelligent man with a warm personality.

But leadership requires more. The new democrats need someone to lead who sees the needs, the aspirations and the potential of Canadians and has the confidence to build visions of a better future in the minds of his listeners. That is not Jagmeet.

And Jagmeet Singh is no Jack Layton. Jack Layton was never going very far as a Toronto councillor but he seemed to grow into the job as leader of the NDP. The biggest surprise with Layton was how he made Quebec pay attention to him. Conversely, Singh is a yawn in that province. Bigotry is more open there.

And what kind of campaign are the NDP going to run? We are hearing that Jagmeet claims that the success Trudeau had in managing the pandemic was because the new democrats forced him to meet their demands, in exchange for their support for the liberal minority. And since the liberals and conservatives claim they will create a million jobs, the NDP should also make that claim.

When the new democrats finally pull away from their socialist and old-style union roots, they might have something for Canadians. Jagmeet does not.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to a new e-mail:

[email protected]

O’Toole will buy back Alberta.

by Peter Lowry

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole is playing second banana to liberal Justin Trudeau. The day after the prime minister was spreading pre-election loonies for votes in Calgary, ‘Oh Shucks’ O’Toole showed up with a whole new offer.

Trudeau offered a specific $1.5 billion contribution to Calgary’s Green Line transit plan. O’Toole, in turn, told his Calgary audience how Trudeau was mistreating them. He told them that the conservatives would change the stabilization program developed by the liberal government to give four of the five billion dollars earmarked for provincial stabilization to Alberta. That would leave just one billion for the rest of the country.

And this offer is only contingent on the conservatives winning the rest of the country, as well as the one non-conservative seat in Alberta.

Frankly that was probably the stupidest thing that O’Toole could do to lose votes across Canada. This is in a province that has never had a provincial sales tax and sports an ultra-conservative provincial government that constantly insults the federal government. Those are the same feds who bought Alberta a pipeline for $4.5 billion.

The Trudeau government is currently twinning the contentious pipeline and adding high-pressure so it can pump diluted bitumen from Edmonton to Burrard Inlet at Vancouver. That will cost another $12.6 billion.

If Canadian voters ever stop to add up all the billions Justin Trudeau has committed to spend to appease the ingrates in Alberta, they are really going to question his judgement.

But, at the same time, you have to question the political sense of conservative Erin O’Toole to be concentrating funds and promises in a province where his party already holds all but one electoral district. He is setting out to antagonize voters across the country with this brazen attempt at pleasing Alberta.

And why would he do it? While urban voters in Calgary and Edmonton might think more favourably of Justin Trudeau and his liberal candidates, Alberta’s rural voters are mainly hard right Tories. Any change in the boonies of Alberta would be glacial.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Found Being Black in Ottawa.

by Peter Lowry

It must have been pandemic boredom. When our library opened up again last week, my wife brought home a number of books. One of them was Celina Caesar-Chavannes’ Can You Hear Me Now?  I asked if I could read it.

I started out reading it seriously and soon was practicing some of the speed-reading skills that I had learned a long time ago. In the end I was just skimming. I found the book a waste of about three hours.

The title itself was off-putting. The first half of the book deals with Caesar-Chavannes’ early life. It was boring because I have heard those complaints and seen the acting-out before, and the constant use of vulgarities is just bad writing. During my childhood and as an adult I often heard the problems my friends had with their old-world parents. All I could advise was patience as their parents (hopefully) became more accepting of their new life in Canada. If she had spent more time trying to understand her parents, she might have found they could ease up faster.

My sense of Celina’s problems as a youth was that she also made the mistake of clustering with blacks. I know how difficult it is but I found that as an interested sixth generation Canadian, I was invited into many homes where I learned about new foods and different cultures.

What interested me in the book was Caesar-Chavannes introduction to politics and Ottawa. I always regretted that I was too busy digging into the Jody Wilson-Raybould MP goings-on at the time and had not been tuned in on what was happening with the Whitby, Ontario MP.

According to her book, she was ill-prepared for the Ottawa scene and, frankly, she seemed to have few of the skills needed to survive in the Parliament Hill environment. She was obviously caught up in being black and accordingly, she was used as just that. Her biggest mistake up front, as parliamentary secretary to the PM, was telling Justin Trudeau that she wanted to meet American president Barack Obama. She did not understand that when he said “Done,” that was all she would get. That started her on a downhill slide for the next four years.

I have often thought that the parties needed a better mentoring system for their new MPs. There are just too many who have no idea of what they are doing in parliament, other than feeding their own self-importance.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to a new e-mail:

[email protected]

Promises, promises.

by Peter Lowry

Christmas might come early this year. Prime minister Justin Trudeau is so obviously weighing the pros and cons of just when to call the election. Summer elections are rather unpredictable. My guess, for what it is worth, is that he will pick a date sometime between the end of September and the end of October. In the meantime, he has lots of toys to announce for all the older girls and boys.

The liberals are already locked in by the commitment of $500 to each senior over 75 by mid August. The wife has already figured out how to spend her and my bribe (about five-times over.) And you certainly cannot let a good bribe linger too long or the bribed parties will just want more.

The silliest bribe was the ridiculous ‘high-frequency’ passenger rail service for the Toronto to Quebec City corridor. It was really a VIA rail suggestion that they will run the lines, if the taxpayers pay for it. Personally, I would not want those brain-dead freight haulers anywhere near a real passenger service. And I still have not figured out how the service can be run 90 per cent with electricity. I hardly think there are discounts for only electrifying 90 per cent of the line. On this one, Justin Trudeau can either go high-speed or get stuffed.

On his visit to the west coast last week, Justin was more practical. He got that nice premier Horgan to accept the offer of more money for extending Vancouver’s Sky Train service. The B.C. premier was also inveigled into acknowledging a deal for $10 per day daycare. The problem B.C. voters should note is that this only happens if the liberals win a few more seats in B.C.

It might have been even more wishful thinking by Trudeau that he stopped in Calgary on his way west. He offered Calgarians $1.5 billion for their Green Line transit system. I always think of this type of offer as a tree falling in a forest. You are not sure that anyone is listening.

But I know how Trudeau could get favourable attention. All he has to do is show how he is going to save billions of dollars for Canadians. All he has to do is cancel the abominable twinning of his TransMountain pipeline from Edmonton to Burrard Inlet.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Simon sets a standard.

by Peter Lowry

This is a mean trick to play on a useful person. Frankly I could care less that Mary Simon is the first aboriginal person on the job. It is a job with no practical use in our society. Why send her out to pasture?

Having Ms. Simon as governor general is a waste of a rare talent. The woman is a competent spokesperson for climate change. She is a former diplomat. She is an effective spokesperson for Canada’s Inuit peoples.

Why appoint a competent and effective person to a job where you are not allowed to think for yourself? Why appoint her to a ceremonial role? And why appoint her to a role that is no longer needed?

I guess 150 years ago, we needed someone to represent the ‘great white mother,’ to impress our aboriginal peoples. After all, we know that Queen Victoria never thought for herself. She was a nebbish. She gave the name Victorian to a boring age in British history.

It is very impressive that Mary Simon was able to convince the Russians to allow their Inuit from the Chukotka Peninsula to participate in the Inuit Circumpolar Conference of 1989. It was prime minister Chrétien who appointed her the first Canadian Ambassador to the newly formed Arctic Council, which she chaired, and later served as Canada’s senior participant. Her list of accomplishments at that time included serving as ambassador to Denmark and the list goes on.

But does Canada need such an accomplished person in the role of governor general? Canadians are well aware that the appointed occupant of Rideau Hall in Ottawa has few tasks and little responsibility. Half the job is finding something to do with their time.

There is no doubt that she can read throne speeches—provided they are in English or Inuktitut. The lady regrets that she does not speak French. That is already raising eyebrows in Quebec but she promises to work on it.

Her new job will probably be the most boring task she ever undertakes.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to a new e-mail:

[email protected]

Building Better Bolder.

by Peter Lowry

Help is here. My old friend, former federal transport minister David Collenette, has written a knowledgeable commentary on the VIA Rail plan for a ‘high-frequency’ passenger service in the Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City corridor. There are some surprises in David’s article in the Toronto Star on the subject.

It is no surprise that David would compliment the liberal government on its innovative plan. He has always been a team player since high school. He even says nice things about VIA Rail. He is only mildly reproving that the plan is not for high-speed rail. He thinks the extra cost for high-speed would be a smart investment.

As a former minister of transport, David is well aware that Canada’s railways have discouraged passenger traffic for so long that passenger rail has failed to develop. Canadians have learned the hard way that, in Canada, passengers always wait for freight.

But he sees hope in the department of finance with Michael Sabia now in the key role of deputy finance minister. After many years of blocking discussion of high-speed rail, the finance department now has someone who understands the need for innovation.  

He points out that much of the new line will be based on abandoned CPR lines in both Ontario and Quebec. It has the political value of adding new stops at Peterborough, Ontario and Trois Rivières, Quebec.

David sees the new service as essential to dealing with climate change. Just how this works when the line only promises to be 90 per cent electric is not clear. I suppose for the 10 per cent of the line without electricity, the passengers could get out and push.

But the Pollyanna aspect of David Collenette’s commentary is that he seems to think it will happen. He even thinks the new service will be capable of 200 km/h speeds. Even VIA Rail has admitted that the system might be capable of 177 km/h. Which coincidently is the top speed of most diesel engines.

Sorry David, but I am not holding my breath for this one.

-30-

Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]