Category: Municipal Politics

Political apparatchiks can get into endless arguments about how best to handle the end game in a municipal campaign. The key question is in setting priorities. You will never seem to have enough workers to do the ground job. So what takes precedence? It is a question John Tory, Olivia Chow and the Ford brothers must be asking themselves as their campaigns go into the end game.

What are the chances, for example, for a good roorback? A roorback is an American political invention in that it is something scurrilous about your opponent that you disseminate when is too late for the opponent to respond. It certainly has to be something other than telling voters that John Tory endorsed Doug Ford four years ago. First of all it is true and secondly Olivia Chow’s campaigners have been telling people that for the last couple months.

The other problem is that today’s 24-hour news channels and social media have eliminated the problem of fast response. That can ruin a good roorback.

One of the most interesting aspects of this campaign for mayor is that most of the attacks on John Tory are falling on deaf ears. They are serving more to confirm the individual vote than to change it. It all comes down to transit. Despite all the virulent attacks on Mr. Tory’s transit plan, it is the only one that is connecting with the voters. Olivia Chow is coming across as the downtown champion of bicycles and buses that guarantees congestion for years to come. And the Ford brothers have already proved that their ‘subways, subways, subways’ mantra is going nowhere.

And even if John Tory’s SmartTrack plan is a crock, he will at least leave the city with some dignity as he goes down with his ship. After all, SmartTrack was just an interesting proposal. It only gains credibility in that the Ontario government is already planning electrification of the commuter train lines. It is a very short step from there to expand the number of stations along the way. When you look at Chicago, you see the logic of the train lines that became the elevated lines that served to speed that city’s progress.

During this week and on October 27, the objective of all municipal candidates has to be to get out the vote. By telephone, by door knocking and every way possible, you have to get the voters to the polls. If half the voters stay home, they are likely to be the ones who were thinking of voting for your candidate.

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]

Toronto has had bluster, BS and bad news for the past four years. There is light though in the distance. It is relief at the end of a long tunnel of trouble. Toronto has endured enough. It is time to end the Ford era. It is time to call your friends and make sure they will vote for the candidate for mayor of Toronto who will replace the Fords. It is time for Torontonians to get solidly behind John Tory.

And they will. Despite the foolish doubts of the media, the confusion of the pollsters and the arguments of the candidates, we know that John Tory will win the mayor’s chair. Even if a post-cancer Rob Ford manages to win back his Etobicoke council seat, some sanity will come back to city council.

But John Tory’s opponents are still railing against him. Their charges against him become more rabid and shameless by the day. Take the op-ed piece by Judy Rebick in the Toronto Star the other day. The stalwart New Democrat supporter of Olivia Chow claims that John Tory is not an option for feminist voters. The picture that statement brought to mind would feed an editorial cartoonist’s family for a week. Ms. Rebick is so predictable in her attack on Tory, you actually feel sorry for Chow that she cannot get more balanced support for her candidacy.

But the bombastic Doug Ford shows even less concern for balance. In bitch slapping John Tory on various issues, Ford ends up pointing out the weaknesses in his own campaign to try to hold the mayor’s chair for his brother. One radio commercial for example attacks details of Tory’s Smart Track policy for transit. What the ad really emphasizes is the lack of depth in Doug Ford’s—or really his brother Rob’s—subway strategy.

Whether Doug Ford was running for himself or his brother, the voters are also tarring him with the same failings as his brother. While nobody claims he uses crack cocaine, he has been smeared by association. He carries Rob Ford’s baggage along with his own braggadocio, bluster and inexperience.

While Ford was counting on Olivia Chow’s campaign to pull enough votes from Tory to allow Ford Nation to come through the middle, it cannot happen. Chow’s support continues to fade and Ford Nation is reduced to too small a cohort.

In checking with supporters of all three candidates across the city, Toronto might as well have the vote today. Nothing is changing.

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]

This is stupid. The law has got to let us run a totalizator on the Toronto election. We could put it on the tote out at Woodbine when there are no ponies running. Punters could check the action on the 24-hour news channels. Here it is October 1 and the candidates are in the final turn. The Toronto mayoralty race alone could make a million bucks either for charity or the government coffers.

From here on the candidates are pounding down the straight-away. The dirt is flying from steel clad feet. The jockeys in campaigning colors are urging on their steeds. Do you not just love the excitement and the drama? The crowd in the grandstand are on their feet and screaming on their choice. There are only furlongs to go on an increasingly muddy track.

And look at those horses in the lead: Olivia Chow might be the smaller horse that is falling back into the pack but there was a lot of early money laid on her. There will be no fewer oats for her back in the stable for placing second or third. While she is still the favourite of a core of supporters, there is little joy in their urging her on. They can only hope for the miracle.

Look at that big thoroughbred dressed up as a dray, struggling to catch up with the leader. Brash and bold, loud and angry, Doug Ford fills the card for his brother’s entry. He wallows in the mud of the stretch drive and kicks it at his adversaries. He thinks everyone should get out of his way as he charges for that seemingly far finish line. His hopes are slim but his backers want their revenge. For these angry people are Ford Nation.

And way out in front picking his way carefully through the flying mud is the frontrunner, John Tory. In the distance, he sees redemption for a mixed career in politics. In the distance he sees better solutions for his city. His whole being is devoted to this stretch run. It has been a long campaign. He did not start strong but he has gained momentum as it progressed.

There has been many a slip in these final furlongs of such a hard and confusing race. There are no guarantees. All drive for that finish line. It is too bad we cannot keep the tote open as there might still be a lot of late bets on this race.

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]

The Toronto Star editors certainly enjoy stirring the pot. They are always in the market for 800 words of controversy to support differing opinions on current subjects. This is why it has always been easy to sell them op-eds (these are guest-written think pieces usually located on the page opposite the editorial page). Take the latest one that tries to use mathematics to explain why Doug Ford could win the Toronto mayoralty. They must have chortled over the reaction they will get to that one.

It will certainly generate a spate of letters-to-the-editor. Many of them will be about the bad mathematics used to make the case for the elder Ford brother.

And to describe the older Ford brother as the one without a crack pipe is titillating but terribly misleading. Sharing the last name does not mean he shares Rob Ford’s political acumen or work ethic.

First and foremost, nobody voted for Rob Ford four years ago because he smoked crack cocaine, had a potty mouth and would seriously embarrass Torontonians. They voted him into office because he wanted to stir the pot and end the dominance of downtown councillors who think bicycles are the answer to traffic congestion. At least that was the perception in the suburbs.

Rob Ford won and definitely stirred the pot. His older brother seemed to think supporting Rob in that effort was to make more enemies for both of them.

The 2014 municipal election in Toronto is hardly a rerun of the 2010 election. The players have changed. Olivia Chow is there representing the downtown left-wing councillors who have not changed much in the past four years. She is only now trying to get her flagging campaign off the ground.

John Tory entered the race representing the moderate middle ground. He has built a solid coalition that brings considerable strength from the suburbs and is he is respected as a thinker, leader, conciliator and doer. By combining the less extreme conservatives and broad liberal support across the city, he is now the leading contender for mayor.

To suggest that Olivia Chow has any votes to grow is to call on some yet unknown political magic. The numbers just do not add up. Doug Ford has entered the race at the top of a slide to oblivion. There is nowhere else for him to go but down.

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]

There was an interesting complaint the other day by a reporter that women cannot get elected mayor in Toronto. The complaint was that polls tend to show that while current candidate Olivia Chow might be well supported by woman voters, she loses when you add in the male voters in the poll. The writer goes on to say that no woman can do well municipally in the city since Toronto was amalgamated.

Bunk! All Toronto needs to see as a successful woman candidate is a woman candidate who is worth electing and understands the challenges involved. Exit polls on the October 27 election will show Olivia Chow doing about as well with men as she will with women. The common factor with these voters will be that they are predominantly downtown voters who usually vote for the New Democrats. That is her base vote and it is simply not large enough to beat John Tory. (Besides, women tell pollsters they are backing a woman candidate because they think it looks better.)

The reason Councillor Karen Stintz bowed out of the mayoralty campaign was that she lacked any political base. While obviously right-wing and an earlier Rob Ford supporter, she has never built a base of Conservative or Liberal support.

The reason Doug Ford will lose is that his Conservative base is confused with the Ford Nation label. Ford Nation is an aberration similar to the American Tea Party. These are political extremists of the right, supported by the angry and the losers. They are an embarrassment to the more centrist Conservative supporters of John Tory.

What everyone is reaching for in this Toronto mayoralty campaign is the sizeable Liberal vote that is up for grabs. It is obvious to anyone who knows Toronto’s Liberals that by far the majority have already swung behind Tory. He does not share the ideological stridency of Prime Minister Stephen Harper or former provincial Conservative Leader Tim Hudak. He is a businessman with the ability to negotiate for the city. He can probably run it well.

That is something Olivia Chow cannot do. Try as you will, nobody can show any initiative by Chow as a former councillor or MP that indicates any leadership skills. If she was serious about her political career, she would have had voice training by now to smooth her stilted manner of speaking. She lacked any control of her supporters in the beginning of her campaign and we watched her early lead go nowhere.

There is a great deal of prestige to the job of mayor of Canada’s largest and most vibrant city. The voters should think long and hard about that before voting willy-nilly for some mythical ‘gravy train.’

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]

It is hard to believe all the mealy-mouthed concern about Toronto Mayor Rob Ford’s health. Under their breath many of these hypocrites are saying: “Look’s good on you fatso!’

But never fear Torontonians, there is a model ‘T’ (for Toronto) Ford just for you. For mayor, your option is now a Douglas Ford. This is the older, taller version of Ford who was supposed to be the brains behind the throne for the past four years. Frankly, if Doug Ford was the brains, it is not much of a guess as to why things were getting derailed so often. Doug Ford is the abrasive one. And it is almost sad to say it but he actually lacks the political savvy of his younger brother.

This is not to say that Rob Ford is out of the picture. Rob is now running for the less demanding role of councillor in his old ward in Etobicoke. Of course there might have to be some surgery along the way but he is counting on what he calls Ford Nation to keep him elected. Nobody has heard officially what the young nephew thinks of this but he has been relegated to a role as school trustee. Most conservatives in Ontario consider that a holding position until a more prestigious opening comes along. Nobody really knows enough about him to care.

Mayoralty candidate Olivia Chow was fastest to the microphones shedding crocodile tears over poor Rob Ford. Mind you the very thought of Doug Ford in the mayor’s chair would bring tears to any clear thinking person’s eyes. In her usually stilted way of speaking, Chow said all she needed to say about how much she is going to miss having Rob Ford to kick around.

It was a pleasure to hear candidate John Tory make it clear that he was not impressed with the idea of Doug Ford stepping into the mayoralty race. He was polite about it but he thought that Doug Ford had made the point well that he was looking forward to getting back to the family business. Mr. Tory sounded confident that the voters would help Doug Ford return to the family business in short order.

But what is interesting about this business of politics is you really wonder what else can happen in this crazy campaign. Maybe Toronto Council can get back to the business of running the city in the next year. We will just have to find some new hobbies for the Toronto news media.

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]

The most obvious problem for those trying to put Olivia Chow into the mayor’s chair in Toronto is her inability to lead. Even if she could win, would she sit comfortably? If you analyze left-wing David Miller’s two terms as mayor between right-wing Mel Lastman and right-wing Rob Ford, it becomes very obvious that this political ping-pong is destructive and costly for Toronto.

The city desperately needs a period of positive progress. It needs a mayor who can lead an unwieldy and disparate council to set aside their differences and work to address the needs of the city. The city can ill afford the turmoil and uncertainty of veering sharply from left to right and back to whatever. It needs a mayor who can find the middle ground and sell the benefits to councillors and citizens alike.

Olivia Chow’s plans for bicycles and buses cannot solve the city’s gridlock. The Ford desire to dig subways takes too long and costs too much. Solutions are in flexibility, staging, compromise and working with other levels of government to make things happen. Ontario and Canada both need a liveable, efficient, affluent, smooth-running city that sets a pattern for our province and our country.

Toronto is not an independent city state. It gains from the 905. It draws from the GTA. It attracts tourists and conventioneers from the province, the country, the world. It enriches us as a centre for business and finance, arts, technology and the fruits of learning at its two world-class universities. Toronto continues to build, grow and nurture. The world comes to Toronto with the arts, the cuisine, and languages that build its culture and liveability. And it shares the results of this enrichment.

Toronto is a haven. It is a city that has known peace for the past 200 years. Its quiet streets share the rustle of leaves on the trees with the laughter of children at play. Its main thoroughfares bustle with commerce. Toronto’s subways, iconic streetcars and buses transit millions to work, to play, to shop and to entertainments.

To understand and believe in Toronto is to care about it. It does not need the publicity of buffoonery. It needs caring management. It cannot grow with socialist concerns. Socialism could never create a downtown heated with steam from a central plant or deep lake water cooling. It is a city that has to continue to grow to survive. It has a huge future.

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]

This mayoralty contest is an uphill battle for broadcaster John Tory. His instinct was right last year when it was obvious that he saw no redemption for himself in going after the mayor’s job. The people who convinced him to run were also right.

Toronto needs John Tory more than John Tory needs the city. He is a businessman with typical business strengths and weaknesses. He can make decisions and stick with them. He is a strong leader and has demonstrated the ability to negotiate. He is also a political person. He is a Conservative in the Bill Davis mould. Those long-ago breakfasts with Brampton Bill at the Park Plaza paid off handsomely for the young lawyer and along with his relationship with Ted Rogers got John Tory away from a boring career with the family law firm.

John Tory knows Toronto far better than any competitor in the mayoralty race. He knows what the city needs and he knows how to make it happen. Gridlock and transit needs have kept his campaign focussed on what Toronto most needs at this time. His SmartTrack surface rail solution is the most practical and cost-sensitive answer to keeping the city moving. It is the right direction. It is neither a new nor overly expensive solution and fits in well with the Ontario government’s plan to electrify and speed commuter lines in and around Toronto.

He is the only candidate for mayor who can make this simple solution happen. And it needs to happen as soon as possible.

Another thing Torontonians can count on with Tory is that he will create a working executive committee that will take back the reins of control of the city from the civil servants. It means we will see more actual progress in Toronto in the next four years than we have seen since Toronto’s forced and poorly managed amalgamation 15 years ago.

All John Tory has to do over the time left before the election is articulate his feelings and belief in Toronto as a great city. Despite all the foolish and ill-considered insults from the Chow people, Tory has kept his cool. He has stayed on track.

We wish John Tory well. He has not had an easy time of it and he has a tough job ahead of him as Mayor of Toronto.

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]

Despite the perverse forecasts of some purported pundits, Rob Ford is hardly likely to be supported for re-election as mayor by any large number of Torontonians. You can clean him up, wash out his mouth with soap and buy him shirts that fit but a klutz is still a klutz. The only thing keeping his faint hope alive is the fact that he has two strong challengers. If there was just one, you would simply write off Ford as just another ‘loser.’

This is not four years ago when people were taking the mayoralty race in Toronto for granted. People believed in the ‘gravy train’ back then and desperately wanted to take back their city from the downtown councillors with their ties to the New Democrats and different priorities. George Smitherman, the former Liberal MPP, never connected with the Toronto suburbs and Ford won them by default. He will have a tough time convincing those people this time out.

Ford made his biggest mistake when he entered rehab in June. His loser supporters heard of his month long holiday in Muskoka. They did not mind the holiday as much as they resented his admission of needing help. He came back refreshed, a bit leaner and a little more fashion conscious.

What is really worrying his sycophants is that he has obviously decided to clean up his act. What’s the fun in a guy that fails to say whatever he wants? His supporters liked it when he fought with Police Chief Bill Blair, made surprise visits on the prowl, acting drunk, incoherent, and spewing racial slurs and do you really think he does not see when people are recording his antics.

But these are not the voters he can count on. The Etobicoke-centred Ford Nation has been shrinking. Ford can no longer sustain the image of returning citizen telephone calls beyond his base vote. He is starting to let down the side. His campaign needs new stimulus and he has nobody to supply him with the easy answers.

Ford is going to continue to struggle with the media and it will be just his pugnacious nature that people are going to continue to see. The media revel in his simplistic diatribes but are not interested in a new, nicer Rob Ford. Besides, the media are not the voters.

Either way, Ford is a loser. Prove the media wrong about him and he will become just another loser. Prove the media right about him and he will go out in flames anyway.

We will discuss the likely winner tomorrow.

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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]