Category: Municipal Politics

Obviously the Olivia Chow campaign team must know something we do not. It is hard to believe that John Tory’s mayoralty campaign is that far ahead? It is the only excuse we can think of for the unrestrained and vicious anti-Tory campaign from Chow at this time.

Until now we have always respected Conservative John Laschinger’s work. He is a smart and steady strategist and Chow was lucky to get him to run her campaign. This is not your typical New Democratic run for the roses and current activities on Chow’s behalf show desperation. Here it is more than six months to the election and Laschinger is turning loose the pit bulls. What the hell has gone wrong?

Sure, he has to get the campaign to attract attention to produce the money it is going to need down the stretch. And he is a hired gun—he wants to make sure he gets paid. Maybe Chow has all the New Democrat donor lists but this is not a ward campaign. She needs well over a million. She can hardly outspend Ford or Tory.

What we are seeing at present is a confused three-way. Chow is trying to shoot down Tory while John is involved in a gentlemanly discourse to explain why Ford should not be in the race. Are Chow’s people just trying to get John angry or are they simply proving that it cannot be done?

When this all starts to make sense, we sure hope somebody opens up about the strategy behind it all. As it stands at the moment, the main benefactor of all of this is the incumbent Mayor. He can ignore them all and laugh at their antics. For every positive step forward the Chow campaign thinks it is making, it keeps slipping down the sewer with the other detritus of a long cold winter.

One thing John Laschinger is going to have to watch for is more of the foolishness such as the YouTube video based on the Chow news release the other day. The video was obviously produced before that news release came out. That nailed it down as a campaign contribution to Chow and the campaign has been forced to acknowledge the expense. If John allows that to continue, there will be no spending room left when the campaign gets serious in September.

As we have said before, Babel-on-the-Bay will have more comment on the campaign in Toronto when it becomes serious. Until then we will enjoy watching the children at play.

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

A visitor to Toronto could only suppose that the election for mayor is to be held next week. The air is charged with the accusations, slurs, gutter language and snide reporting as though it were the final weeks of the campaign. And that is just in the social media.

But the commercial media seem just as rabid. Rosie DiManno is not about to have her pen bronzed and hung over the mantel while she retires to her rocker. The city hall media rabble—replete with cameras and recorders—are hardly about to forget their favourite part-time mayor of all the people. Nor are the partisan pretenders to the mayoralty about to relent and ease their attacks on each other.

And this is just the phony war! Babel-on-the-Bay promised you an update when the campaign got serious in September. That is still five months away.

It seems premature for voters to be picking their favourite mayoralty candidate from among the 45 contenders who have registered to date. Others have until September, so there is lots of time left and lots more possible candidates.

Happily, it can be reported that not much is really happening. Campaign managers and apparatchiks are still trying to figure out the formula for winning an election across this city. As in most such events, the leading contender at this point is the incumbent. And that drives his opponents crazy.

There is a serious need in this election for some strategic voting. Mind you, it has never worked before in Toronto and is not expected to work this time. Strategic voting would require a decision before the end of September as to which contender has the best chance of defeating the incumbent. If enough people agree and a few key contenders quit the race, you could have a de facto strategic vote.

But it is not going to happen. First of all, the mayoralty contenders are going to be so bruised from constant insults by September that they would rather see the incumbent win because he has been smart enough to ignore them.

Of course, they would all be wise to ignore their competitors. The truth is there are only three out of the current 45 that anyone needs to worry about. And only one of the three possible winners seems to have any idea of how to get elected in October.

Oh well, we will discuss it in detail in September. It will be important then.

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

Torontonians now have the main contenders for the Toronto mayoralty in October. You hardly need public opinion polls to tell you who are the serious three and the lesser two. With Olivia Chow, Rob Ford and John Tory in the race and Karen Stintz and David Soknacki looking on, the city is settling in for a long political summer. If you know now who is going to win in October, you are much smarter than the rest of us.

But there is not one of those campaigns that could not change the odds by running a better thought out and better organized operation.

The Rob Ford campaign is running on a wing and a prayer. With titular campaign manager Doug Ford’s inexperience, the only people propping up Rob Ford’s candidacy are the news media. They follow him like puppies waiting for the next vulgarity. The strength of his campaign is in his ability to titillate.

The smartest campaign to-date seems to be Olivia Chow’s. The credit will have to go to John Laschinger, the Conservative gun-for-hire who is running her campaign. While the campaign needs more than a crafted biography to win votes, Laschinger might want to rein in Liberal Warren Kinsella who seems to be positioning himself as Olivia’s attack specialist.

This is no time for attacks on opponents. The mud comes later—when you are desperate.

The strangest attack was the young Barbie Doll with real hair who showed up on television as a spokesperson for John Tory. We did not catch her name but she did a one-liner on Olivia Chow that seems to be the right-wing answer to left-wing Chow. Somebody on John Tory’s campaign bus had better rethink that attack. And if a slander is worth doing, it should be done by the candidate—otherwise there is no benefit.

The only proper answer to Olivia Chow’s announcement was offered by David Soknacki (whomever he is) who politely welcomed her to the mayoralty campaign. He knows he can attack her more effectively later.

And nobody is above attack. Everybody is vulnerable.

But this campaign is about one of the most difficult political jobs in Canada. It requires leadership without power. There is no party discipline and there are not many perquisites for a mayor to distribute. It is not the same as in Calgary or New York City but Toronto candidates could learn some things from those mayors.

The candidates have to start talking about where they want to take Toronto. And you need to use the KISS principle: keep it simple stupid!

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

The faster you try to do something, the longer you will have to regret it. There are too many stupid things we do that seem like a good idea at the time.

Take the latest ill-considered suggestions at Queen’s Park to change the way people vote in Toronto elections. The proponents seem to think it will keep the city from electing another Rob Ford. It could also keep them from electing anyone who might be really good at the job.

What is happening is that both a Liberal Member and a New Democrat Member are proposing private member’s bills that will allow the Toronto Council to change the way the voters can choose their mayor and councillors. The New Democrat bill offers to let the council pick a voting method, while the Liberal bill specifies that the council can only choose between a ranked ballot and the present first-past-the-post method. Both bills are bad ideas.

Before we even consider the idea on its merits, or lack thereof, why just Toronto? Why are Ottawa, London, Hamilton, Windsor or even Babel not being allowed a say? Are these cities already perfect? Or are they just unimportant? Have they never had a mayor who embarrassed them? Smarten up Queen’s Park!

There have been many opportunities over the years to rate ranked voting and what we find is that you usually get the most acceptable choice not the best choice. Some might think that acceptable is better than best but you really need to think about it.

And you would expect a Liberal would know some of the answers. When you realize that Premier Kathleen Wynne was chosen in a series of ballots to reach more than 50 per cent of the vote, you can see the problem. The Premier was never first choice, she got to be first choice by being first choice of most of her competitors. Obviously, these competitors considered her to be a good choice for them. The question is: is she the best choice for the voters? That has yet to be decided.

What you really get with ranked voting is mediocrity. It is the same with proportional voting. It happens in all voting forms where the voter loses control of the process. Canada has developed a tradition of open and democratic elections that are controlled by an independent authority created for that purpose that is envied around the world. Only those who want elections to serve their own purpose seem to want change.

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

In more than 30 years of dealing with the news media, you find that you can make all the mistakes you will ever need to make in the first week. If you do not clue in during that first week that the news media are not your friends, all is lost. And that is why Toronto mayoralty candidate John Tory’s little elves need to get him to button-up.

John is no longer a radio host able to prattle on as he wishes. We all know he is erudite and knowledgeable. Now he can shut up. He is leaving too many low hanging fruit for his detractors. There are 34 weeks between now and election day and there should be a plan in place (subject to revision) as to what he can say during each of those weeks. There will always be targets of opportunity but the smart politicians know which ones to weigh into.

Case in point is the situation with Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair. Frankly nobody gives a damn if John Tory supports Mr. Blair. The Chief of Police is an employee of the Police Services Board in his role as a civil servant. Telling the media of a candidate’s support for that civil servant is both gratuitous and lousy campaign strategy.

We should not forget the despicable role played by Chief Blair in Prime Minister Harper’s G-20 Weekend of Infamy. There are many who still want Blair charged for that gross mismanagement of the forces at his command. And John Tory needs to make note that the enemy of his enemy is not necessarily his friend.

Besides, getting down in the gutter to mud-wrestle with the Ford boys is not the way to run a gentlemanly campaign. You have to stay away from the scatological, the boorish, the thoughtless, the vulgar, the drug dealers and other distractions. After all, it is only for 34 weeks and you surely have some friends left.

Tory has to refrain from making himself a target. He cannot go around acting like he is some senior Justin Trudeau. Justin is Teflon; Tory is vulnerable. The City of Toronto needs a strong, intelligent and caring mayor who understands the issues facing the city. John Tory should only talk about those concerns. He has to talk only about what Toronto needs today and in the future, He will not necessarily have all the answers but he can offer leadership and he can care.

What the city obviously does not need is Rob Ford, so there is absolutely no reason to talk about him.

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

If it were not for the egos involved, political campaigns would be far more fun. Most political apparatchiks get their comeuppance early in the game and learn the hard way that the candidate is always the star, not the hangers-on. It is like the old ventriloquist Edgar Bergen was always the politely bland chap in the background. It was the dummy on his lap who made it all work.

Another lesson learned early in politics is the need to assess the strengths and weaknesses of an opponent’s support team. What types of campaigns have they run? What are their favourite tactics and strategic moves? And why has this candidate selected him or her? If you know them, you know what to expect.

Regrettably we seem to fail sometimes in that analysis with people in the same party. We try to work in a spirit of collegiality. We want to take our allies at face value. That only fails us when we are too late in understanding their objectives. When you can feel the knife slide into your back, it is too late to even be disappointed.

But it makes you a bit stand-offish as you get older. You tend to keep your commerce to your own generation. The Warren Kinsella’s of this world are a later breed. Some of us never did understand the supposed “War Room” and his book “Fight the Right” seemed already out of date when published and was easily forgotten.

Mind you it seems understandable that a liberal who has to make his living working for Pierre Karl Péladeau’s Sun Media might feel bitter. It does not really excuse attacks on Toronto mayoralty candidate John Tory on behalf of an undeclared Olivia Chow. The attacks are not only overblown but are damaging to Chow. Having an attack dog on her campaign team does nothing for her image. She has to sell conciliation from the left, not silly, unjustified personal attacks.

From Mayor Rob Ford, you expect unwarranted and unnecessarily vicious charges. Hell, he is better at it and has earned the sanctions for it.

The only advice to Mr. Kinsella is that maybe he can find better content and add more depth to his blogs. He should also note that a blog should always have more substance than a twit in Twitter and he might be a much more respected writer if he tried not to use as many personal pronouns

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

The endurance contest in Ontario that has replaced municipal election races has its own challenges and strategies. The Toronto mayoralty race can be considered launched Monday with the official entry of Councillor Karen Stintz and former provincial Conservative Leader John Tory. And like the period from September 1939 to April 1940, it can be described as a “Phoney War.”

But there were many casualties on land and sea in that period of the Second World War and there will be casualties by the time the Toronto mayoralty contest comes down to the basic three. By the end of the summer, the race is expected to consist of the also-rans and Olivia Chow, Rob Ford and John Tory.

Olivia Chow is the only still undeclared candidate but she will have to move fast now as people are already wondering about her obvious expenses—which are illegal if she is not declared. Most of the people working for her must be betting on the Come but she is accumulating far too many political debts for a sensible campaign.

Meanwhile, Rob Ford can spend whatever is necessary to try to hold on to enough of his support in a three-way race. It is simple mathematics to reason that he can win with as little as 35 per cent of the voters who get to the polls. And it is important to note that both Ford and Tory are personally wealthy. One of the loopholes in municipal election law in Ontario is that candidates can spend as much of their own money as they wish. It is the outside funding that is restricted.

This is John Tory’s last political hurrah and he will pull no punches. It is interesting to note that he understands the job of mayor as well if not better than Rob Ford. He does not have Ford’s populist instincts but he sure beats him in sincerity and trustworthiness. He also beats him in management experience, political experience and good manners.

To the chagrin of the Olivia Chow exploiters, she has never even led a pack of Brownies. As a city councillor and as a Member of Parliament, Chow has had a less than spectacular career. While the people around her think that makes them more important to her campaign, watch for the day she believes their propaganda for her and tries to do something on her own. There will be some interesting campaign bloopers in that camp.

But this is a long race. We will save our bets until Labour Day.

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

It is now obvious that broadcaster John Tory is going to jump into the Toronto mayoralty. He gave up the news on Global Television’s Focus Ontario over the weekend. And he had no need to answer host Alan Carter’s snide introduction as “Soon to announce for the Toronto mayoralty, John Tory.” In fact, one of the benefits of running for mayor will be an excuse for Tory to stay off that show with its amateur and biased host.

And he might as well run for the mayor’s job. Someone has to do the healing after the Rob Ford years and John is ideally suited to that role. He is even forgiven for being a Conservative. He is just not as obnoxious and narrow-minded as his replacement in the provincial wing of that party.

He can also do the job without putting out a purported biography. He hardly needs sugar coating to his privileged upbringing. What he can uniquely offer is leadership. It is something we know he has and has demonstrated. In a city with complex problems and extremes of opinions, he is the one person with a chance to pull it together. He can save the city from itself. He can be the mayor we want to respect.

That is something that no other candidate can offer. And that includes Jack Layton’s widow. The New Democrats are going to need her vote in Ottawa anyway. She would be a continuing disaster in the mayor’s chair as she gradually alienates every councillor from the suburbs. She has no understanding or skill at leadership and the fractious downtown caucus will never do for her what they did for David Miller.

Tory might have no natural empathy for that group of downtown misfits but they will at least respect him enough to listen. They will also respect his knowledge and experience in working with Toronto’s transit and infrastructure funding problems. He is a thinker and not a grandstander. He is the opposite of a Rob Ford.

And he has just been marking time as a broadcaster. That experience puts him head and shoulders ahead of any other mayoralty candidate. In fact, he might be the first mayor in many years who really knows how to handle the media and is relaxed in the process.

There is still the question of how we knew that he is running. Why else would he be sporting a new toupée? It is a considerable improvement over the old one. It is not as though he can afford a full-time hairdresser as does Prime Minister Harper but the quality of the rug makes a heck of a difference.

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

It really is foolish. There was a commentary the other day by Bob Hepburn of the Toronto Star that Toronto liberals are in a quandary about this year’s mayoralty race in their city. Bob is a bit early in suggesting that liberals need to make any decision. The problem for them is not to jump into this or that campaign. Their challenge is to find the right candidate for liberal-minded voters to support.

There is not one of the present or suspected candidates at this time who could meet any criteria for liberal support. Liberals might be losing organizational and fund-raising time but there is still plenty of time to field a better candidate for mayor.

And if you cannot find the perfect candidate by Labour Day, you can make some decisions. You can look at the situation in early September and you will have a darn good idea of who is going to win. If it is someone you can live with for the next four years, you can relax. You can save your funding and energy for the 2015 federal election—the one with important issues to fight.

If September comes and it looks like Ford is going to win, you have a problem. You better get to work for the one candidate who might beat him. A do-nothing Olivia Chow could be a better alternative to a destructive Rob Ford. That would be a non-liberal choice but it would save the city from further embarrassment. With Stintz, you have to hold your nose and hustle. She would seem like a breath of fresh air after Ford. Even John Tory might be past his best-before date but Toronto could relax a bit with four years of Tory.

But the problem is the city would go nowhere with any of those alternatives. Gridlock would continue to strangle a city without leadership. There would be no progress on transportation or serious infrastructure needs. The city would be spending much of its time on its knees at Queen’s Park and in Ottawa.

Toronto needs leadership. That is not what the usual suspects are offering. Leadership is a vision, a future, a city that knows where it is going. Those misfits and office-holders we seem stuck with on council should have little choice but to follow.

The ideal candidate for Toronto is a liberal. For Toronto is a liberal city. It is a melange of the old and the new. It looks to the future, not the past. It believes rather than destroys. It sets high standards. It can see the better future.

-30-

Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]