Category: Municipal Politics

Well, That Was Wrong.

by Peter Lowry

The one thing to remember about political forecasting is that sometimes, you get it wrong. The other day I wrote that Olivia Chow must be older and smarter and was staying out of the mayoralty race in Toronto. I was wrong. She is just older. She obviously has learned little during her last time-out from politics.

Olivia has done well by politics. She worked her way up the political ladder since getting elected to the Toronto School Board in 1985. Her mentor was far-left MP Dan Heap. He hired her as his constituency office assistant during a gap between her elections.  Nobody paid much attention to her until she tried the jump to city politics in 1985. Her political career tended to be two steps forward and then one step back.

I started to pay closer attention to her when she was fighting the expansion of the Island Airport for jet aircraft. I think the funniest incident though was when I was roped into working on Bob Wong’s campaign for the liberals in the Toronto riding of Fort York. It was a hard-fought campaign. What made it unusual was that that Olivia Chow was working for the returning officer. At the same time, she was living with fellow NDP Jack Layton who was doing something for the new democratic candidate in Fort York. (Olivia and Jack were married the next year.)

My stance was “so what.” We decided to let the conservative candidate or someone else complain, if they wanted to. I knew what Jack Layton would be doing for the NDP anyway. The funniest part of the incident was on election day. I had brought my wife to campaign headquarters and while I was out looking after a problem, the campaign manager sent her on an errand to the returning office.

When I got back to the office, the campaign manager was on the phone with my wife. The story, as I got it, was that my wife was sitting at Olivia Chow’s desk, on her phone, reading the information that we wanted off a white board at the desk. The information was useful, as it confirmed that we had already won the election.

This latest and belated step by Olivia to come back into Toronto politics is helpful in that it makes a clear demarcation between the conservative, liberal and NDP candidates for the mayoral by-election.

And here is the key question: Since we all know that the money, Toronto so desperately needs, has to come from Toronto voters, provincial voters or federal voters, what party should the new mayor come from?

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Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry

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The Cowbird’s Quest.

by Peter Lowry

The ornithologist might study some strange birds in a lifetime, but there are also some strange birds in politics. There is that breed of cowbird, for example, that prefers to lay its eggs in other bird’s nests. That seems to be happening in the current mayoralty by-election in Toronto. It is a practice that attempts to draw from the vote for a viable candidate.

If you are worried about the 40 plus other candidates for mayor, don’t be. There are possibly ten real candidates and all the rest are running for a wide variety of reasons. Anyone in this second group who really believes they can win the mayor’s job would be better off spending time with that nice doctor who asks all the funny questions. It might not be too expensive to get your name on the list as a candidate but a contest such as this is very, very expensive to win.

And don’t ever think that the news media are going to do the job of promoting your candidacy. The news media are mainly in the business of reporting the news and selling advertising. Giving you free advertising does not keep them in business.

The candidate that made me think of the cowbird is Celina Caesar-Chavannes. She is a former liberal and a former member of parliament. She left the liberals in a huff and was defeated in the 2019 election as an independent. I think she might have been misled to think this by-election in Toronto would help her sell copies of her book. And the fact that she has no chance make’s it a bad career choice as well.

My major problem in the coming weeks is to sort through the backgrounds and credentials of 10 or 12 credible candidates for mayor and come up with a usable Morning Line. I am still going to target May 5.

I have been asking my conservative friends for advice and they all admit that there are far too many conservatives in the race. It doesn’t look like Olivia Chow will make it to the starting line, which could mean she is smarter than I thought.

Someone ran a poll the other day but it is meaningless at this point. We haven’t even got all the horses into their gates.

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Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry

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What’s the Big Idea?

by Peter Lowry

It would be a shame to tell all those people running to be mayor of Toronto that they are doing it all wrong. This is not a long campaign. It is unlikely that voters are going to chase candidates down the street to see where they stand on the issues. And what are the issues. Is it the individual issues that matter? It is time for those 40 plus people to wake up, sniff the air in Toronto and ask the simple question: “Why.”

And maybe it is; Why are they wasting their time? There is no second-place money in this race. One person is going to get all the lolly. And that is the person who knows the “Why.”

Because the “Why” is not an issue. It might be safe streets. I wouldn’t bet on it myself. The former police chief in the race owns that issue and has to run on it. Thankfully it doesn’t often work. People who have spent their life in police work make lousy mayors. They are too authoritarian and narrow in their focus. They often don’t know how to compromise.

I always encourage candidates to have great ideas to talk about such as playgrounds, parks, building codes, housing, etc. It gives the voters who pay attention something to think about but it rarely makes much difference.

It simply does not answer the “why” of the candidate.

And personally, I would stay far away from this strong mayor foofaraw. It is for conservative candidates who don’t mind being kissy-kissy with premier Ford, as long as he can stay in office. You can only use those undemocratic powers when the premier says you can. And there are too many conservatives running.

Frankly, I think Toronto needs a person with good experience federally or provincially and knows the difference. That is where the city has to get the money to do the job that needs to be done. Toronto has to get building. You cannot afford to have a city where people camp in the parks or sleep on sewer grates. Toronto is the business centre of Canada and a smart mayor knows how to play that to the city’s advantage.

Toronto is the place to be mayor. Toronto is the place to raise children. Toronto is a place for tourists. Toronto is a fun city. Toronto is an open city. Toronto matters. Now think about it and tell us that “Why.”

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Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry

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‘Send in The Clowns.’

by Peter Lowry

There is a sad feeling to Stephen Soundheim’s haunting ballad “Send in the Clowns.” It also has a special meaning to me when dealing with the also rans in elections. They are a sad lot. They get little respect and few votes. And yet, you can not talk them out of it. It might be just a dream but it is their time in the sun.

The reminder of this category in the current mayoralty by-election in Toronto came the other day when Celina Caesar-Chavannes, former member of parliament from Whitby threw her bonnet into the by-election. She was reported as being candidate number 29. Anyone who has tried to read her book on her experience in Ottawa is rather unlikely to see any merit in putting her in the Toronto mayor’s chair.

While the 2015 federal election was an easy time for liberals to get elected, the sunshine did not last for the next four years. Ms. Caesar-Chavannes did not realize that the role of the parliamentary secretary for prime minister Trudeau was similar to American vice presidents, to be seen and not heard. It was obvious that it was not the treatment she was prepared for. She did not last in federal politics.

Nor is there likely to be a future for her in Toronto city politics. With no municipal experience, she might not be fully prepared for the demands of the mayor’s office in a city the size of Toronto. It might not be her cup of tea either.

Some time in the next month, the media are going to decide who the top three or four might be and give them the close attention. While they will list the others there is no way they can waste much time or space to help them promote their hopes.

In my last mayoralty campaign I was asked to manage the ground game. This involved the training of volunteers, directing their canvassing for the candidate and also supporting the candidate’s canvas—making sure that he was seen canvassing in every key part of the city. The bad news I found was that the city had few experienced canvassers and the canvassers I had were from all three political parties. I had the embarrassing situation of conservatives calling me during the subsequent federal campaign thanking me for the training. One of my best pupils used my advice to help a conservative win one of the two city electoral districts.

Another difficulty with that last campaign was the feeling of tension from the out of town campaign manager who knew how to spend money but not strategically. I was there one time when he and the candidate were discussing numbers and that is part of the ground game planning. He told the candidate that 10 to 15 per cent of votes would go to the bottom three also-ran candidates. If he had looked closer at his own polls, he would have known as I did, that those bottom three would not garner three per cent of the vote. He made the mistake of saying I was wrong. He would only put ten dollars on it but I took great delight in claiming the ten bucks at the victory party for our team.

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Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry

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They Want Ranked Ballots?

by Peter Lowry

They never seem to learn. It certainly is not that Ontario premier Doug Ford is any smarter. He is just being his own opinionated self. I think he said ‘no’ to ranked ballots is because his old foes at Toronto City Hall wanted them. The difference is when you have studied voting systems around the world, it is obvious that ranked ballots are a likely way to choose losers. You can get bad choices rising to the top. After all, when Doug Ford was not first choice in the ranked ballot vote for Ontario conservative leader, and if I was a conservative, I would never want to use ranked ballots again.

The trouble with ranked ballots, when there are a large number of candidates, is that the maybes rise to the top. Nobody seriously checks out ten or more candidates. You might have a second and even a third choice but after that it becomes name recognition at best. And there are people who conscientiously mark ten choices. They might as well be pinning a tail on the donkey.

In a field of four or five candidates, ranked ballots mostly work the same as first-past-the-post. It turns out that the candidate who came first often came second or third on others. In the case where the person who came first held on to the lead past the second or even third count to have more than 50 per cent of the vote. Again, the result is the same as first-past-the-post

But when you have 15 or more candidates, you have lost control. One of the key problems is that many of your ballots have run out of options before anyone passes the magic 50 per cent. You can end up with less that 50 per cent of your original votes cast making your decision. And what the heck is democratic about that?

If you believe in ranked ballots, you can carry on with your errors but I would much prefer run-off elections. At least some thought goes into the process. I expect we will have to wait until everyone trusts computers enough to use them for run-offs. I trust them now.

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Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry

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The Book on Toronto Mayoralty.

by Peter Lowry

Never rush your bets. We have no idea just who and how many will be entered in the race for the Toronto mayor’s chair. The job pays just under $200,000 a year with lots of benefits. You have until 2 pm on May 12 to register as a candidate and the election day is June 26. Babel-on-the-Bay will have to hold its Morning Line until registration closes, in case there are any late surprises.

I cut my teeth on a municipal election back in the 1960s. It was when we were still having elections in December for the next year and I was putting up signs and canvassing in the early winter. My first-time candidate won easily with the simplistic campaign we had designed.

I have worked on campaigns for a number of mayors and councillors over the years but never in a city the size of Toronto. It means a much larger budget but the basics remain the same. I always resolved to try to bring a smile to voters’ faces when the candidate’s name was mentioned. Provincial and federal elections are actually much more difficult because the central campaigns take so much away from the individual candidates. I try to overcome this by designing and writing tabloids featuring the candidate and the candidate’s relationship with the community.

If you want to know who is the loose cannon in this race, you have to look to Queen’s Park. He might be premier, but Doug Ford has his own designs on this campaign and you can count on him to let you know how he wants Torontonians to vote. One of his problems is that there is already a surfeit of conservatives in the race. It has even put a strain on the availability of conservative campaign managers. Some conservatives solve the problem by hiring liberals who need the work to stay active. (Sorry, I’m retired.)

But that will not stop me from commenting occasionally through the campaign. There are some interesting candidates deserving to be noticed and some deserving of their sure defeat. Yes, name recognition will be a factor in this by-election but every candidate will have the same problem in getting out the vote. We could see a turnout as low as 35 per cent. The candidates can win the support but can they get it to the polls? You will see the problems when you see our Morning Line.

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Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry

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The Unwanted Child.

by Peter Lowry

Ontario premier Doug Ford should be well aware that the City of Toronto is a child of the province. And his short but hectic four years in Toronto City Hall showed him the way it works. Why else would he, as premier, have interfered with the number of councillors to be elected part way through Toronto’s 2018 municipal election?

Oddly enough, premier Ford still thinks of politics on the city level. He does not really relate on the provincial level. Why else would he seem to lack understanding of the importance of healthcare and education in the provincial legislature? His besties are still the Toronto developers and their lawyers.

Ford cannot assume that the province’s responsibility is to the outside of the city. Helping the city to be liveable and productive is as much the province’s job as it is city council’s job. The city is a child of the province and it is currently suffering from child abuse and neglect. And Toronto is not the only city with problems. It is the biggest city and therefore is the neediest.

The first reality is that Toronto is more desperately in need of housing than the Greenbelt. Not only does it need reasonable cost housing but it needs geared-to-income and supportive housing. That is where the big bucks need to go. More and more we are hearing that housing is not a privilege but it has to be a right in a climate such as Toronto’s. The province has to forget the Greenbelt and build in the cities. It has to get people inside where they can be protected from our unreliable environment.

Mr. Ford has to forget the treatment he received in Toronto city hall. And he has to realize that the reason his brother was fooling with drugs was likely because of the strains of an impossible job for a mayor to cope unsupported in managing a city of almost three million people.

Mr. Ford has to realize that the original concept of city administration was services to infrastructure and properties. Somebody had to clean the moat or the smell would drive people away from the city. And then they found that they needed a night watch to keep the peace and they were also providing services to people. If Mr. Ford cannot understand that the city is also his responsibility, we better elect somebody who does.

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Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:[email protected]

A Progressive for Toronto Mayor.

by Peter Lowry

It has been confirmed that MPP Mitzie Hunter is getting ready to officially enter the race for the Toronto mayoralty. In a constantly growing field of candidates, Mitzie is going all in. She will enter the official list late as she has to resign as member of the provincial parliament for Scarborough-Guildwood first.

The good news for Mitzie is that the conservative organizations in Toronto have failed to contain the right wing. They were hoping to be able to focus on one particular candidate on the right. That hope is past, judging by the field of right-wing candidates that have already announced.

There is likely to be over two dozen candidates on the June 26 ballot. It is described by some of the experienced election pundits as a free-for-all. Someone can win with just 25 per cent of the vote. And if less than 50 per cent of Toronto voters go to the polls on June 26, that makes this a crap shoot.

With Mitzie in the race, Queen’s Park’s loss can be Toronto’s gain. She has a BA from the University of Toronto and an MBA from the Rotman School of Management. She has a solid background in Toronto’s needs from serving as head of CIVIC Action and as administrative head of Toronto Community Housing.

There is no doubt that Mitzie can address the current issues facing Toronto and she can make a major impact on Toronto’s future. It is also to Toronto’s advantage to have someone who knows the language and buttons to press at Queen’s Park to correct some of the imbalance in funding for the city. She can also count on a good reception with the current government in Ottawa for some of Toronto’s special needs.

I believe Mitzie has a good grasp of the importance of Toronto to the rest of the province and to Canada. The city has always been absorbing more that its mathematical share of the newcomers to Canada, and it has used their skills and industry well.

Mitzie will be sure to win if progressives from across Toronto get behind her. Don’t wait for her to call you. As soon as her Mitzie Hunter campaign headquarters are announced, call and get out there in your ward to help her.

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Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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Golden Rule Days.

by Peter Lowry

One of the stupidest moves over the years with Toronto schools was the removal of school resource officers. It was an example of ignorance winning over common sense. School resource officers (SRO) was a program whereby Toronto police officers were located in some schools to create a presence and a resource to help build a relationship between the police and the community.

They were not there to guard the students. This was a program that could pay its way for many years down the road. The officer was a resource for the teachers, a back-up for the parents, a humanizing of the police for the students. Nobody who understood the program expected miracles. It was reaching for the long-term benefits. It needed to reach around the hollowness of the police are our friends. It was a program of inestimable value for years to come.

But some ignorant parents and busybodies and trouble-makers complained. The Toronto School Board did its usual mealy-mouthed flip-flop. The police services board caved in. The program was stopped.

I mention this because when you really need this type of program, you have nothing to replace it. I am thinking of my high school, the ill-fated York Memorial Collegiate.

I was already at York Memorial when George Harvey School was completed nearby on Keele Street.

From the beginning, there was a sense of rivalry between the two schools. And, quite frankly, I never wanted to play football again, after the trouncing we grade 10 students took when we played against George Harvey’s grade 10 students. So, I switched from football to the choir (Not being able to sing the same note twice did not seem to be of concern.)

I felt sorry for the students though when I heard about the fire a couple years ago. It was a wonderful school and I really enjoyed the years I was there. It was also easy to see the problems involved if York Memorial students found themselves squeezed into George Harvey. Some rivalry is good; crowded cohabitation can be risky.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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A Tale of Two Cities?

by Peter Lowry

“It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.” No, no, not in those cities as told by Charles Dickens. This tale is of two cities in Ontario. We are talking here of Brampton, a city near Toronto, and of Toronto. Both cities are in the process of electing mayors. They have challengers and they have incumbents. One of the winners will become a super mayor. The other can only complain from the bleachers.

John Tory in Toronto wants the super mayor title. He has already served two terms as an ordinary mayor. In this observer’s opinion, he has done a good job. He deserves a third term with, or without, super powers.

The other incumbent is Patrick Brown in Brampton. Brown has spent a distracted and controversial four years calling Brampton home. Between troubles in Brampton city hall and a failed run at going back to federal politics, Brown has not made many friends in Brampton. He is the last person I would choose as mayor.

But then, nobody is perfect. John Tory in Toronto has his detractors. He would certainly earn an extra credit from me if he ditched his side job of advising that kid trying to run Rogers Communications. He obviously does not need the money.

I have listened to John’s detractors and I am amazed that they should blame him for the state of things after the worst of the pandemic. Have you seen New York, London, Paris or Rome lately. Big cities are always a work in progress. You cannot stop the process of building and rebuilding. Cities are a challenge to manage, maintain and to control. John Tory has brought Toronto through tough times; huge challenges and he has been with Torontonians every step of the way.

And Patrick Brown is not fit to shine John Tory’s shoes.

I have no insight into the current problems of Brampton City Hall. I just know that having Brown in the mayor’s chair would not be pleasant. I imagine, he would be sitting in that chair during council meetings wondering what was in it for him.

The only redemption I could imagine for him is to withdraw from the mayoralty race. As he leaves the mayor’s office, he could quote Charles Dickens with the line: “It is a far, far better thing I do, than I have ever done.”

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]