Category: New

Vote Local, Think Local.

by Peter Lowry

The wife and I voted on Friday. We usually vote at advance polls. It is a habit from years of working on campaigns. I usually know if my vote will be useful or not. Even when I know it will not matter, I still go to vote. Even a losing candidate needs some encouragement. You never know about next time.

And you always need to be reminded of the way the Canadian system works. It is all these local decisions that make the decision for our country. All elections in Canada really are local.

That is why I have been disappointed with the campaign in my riding. It has been a farce. There never is much of a lawn sign campaign in Barrie. And with a third of the votes coming from Springwater and Oro-Medonte Townships, political signs are rare on rural lawns.

What annoys me is that some faceless person in Ottawa made the candidate decision for the local liberals. When I asked where the candidate came from, I heard that she was the only applicant. That is a serious condemnation of our local riding association. They were not doing their job. The only solace is that this is what Justin Trudeau wanted from our local riding—nothing but money.

What Justin Trudeau left us with is a modest campaign by a liberal candidate with tiny “excuse-me” signs here and there, one radio ad I heard and a you-vote card. The incumbent conservative must be laughing. He was a useless member of the city council and is equally useless in Ottawa. He votes as he is told and does nothing for his constituents.

To send this conservative back to Ottawa will be a disgrace but there is little hope. I do not even know the name of any of the other candidates. I hardly expect as much as 60 per cent of the eligible voters in this riding to go to the polls. There is no excitement, no challenge, no enthusiasm for any candidate.

Oh well, I should have complained ten years ago when I saw that my riding was being gerrymandered to benefit Patrick Brown and the conservatives.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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Is it a Dead Heat?

by Peter Lowry

It looks like there will be a lot of arguments in the days ahead about how Canada elects its politicians. When you are electing 338 individual members of parliament across a country as large as large as ours, a tie for first place has to be an extremely rare event. Luckily, we are not running a bookmaker operation. Nor are we accepting any bets on the coming election.

But, at this time, I cannot tell you who is going to win. Nor can I foretell what might happen if there are just a few seats difference between the top two parties. It might even involve other parties making the decision of whom they might support. This is why I have always been so interested in politics: there are so many factors at play.

This is one of those times when the political parties are really challenged to get out their vote!  There are too many electoral districts with close races.

Despite the slight edge in manning polls and getting out the vote that goes to the conservatives, Maxime Bernier might have carved out too large a niche of conservative voters for his peoples’ party.

And despite all the pollsters who have claimed that the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is “poised” to increase the NDP vote, it will be a surprise if he does not bottom out at about 18 per cent of the popular vote. At that vote, there could be a few serious losses for the party. Those losses could help the liberals.

On September 20, I intend to stay up until we have the picture on Quebec. The liberals really have to trash the Bloc Québécois to make sure of at least a minority government again. They have already given up on too many electoral districts in Ontario.

The further west you go, the worse the news for Justin Trudeau.

These are now the odds that you should be able to get from your favourite bookie: (There was some confusion about the payoffs in the first version, so I have made these easier to understand. No vigorish or taxes are included. )

Liberal Majority Government – 7 to 3 (a $3 bet pays $10)

Liberal Minority Government – Even Money (a $1 bet pays $2)

Conservative Majority —             5 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $6)

Conservative Minority —             Even Money (a $1 bet pays $2)

NDP Majority —                           30 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $31)

NDP Minority —                           20 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $21)

Green Minority —                         50 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $51)

Bloc Québécois Minority —          100 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $101)

People’s Party —                           Don’t waste your money.

Best you save your money and vote for the candidate in your riding whom you trust to represent you.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Updating the Book.

by Peter Lowry

There is a flow to this election. It is like the wave that starts far out to sea as a gentle roller. It grows in size and anger until it crashes on the shore.

Four years ago, I had a long talk with a Canadian who was telling me how much she admired then American president Donald Trump. I was hardly surprised when her husband echoed her stand. They have two older kids who wisely stayed away from the discussion. I mention this today as the husband is running for the conservatives in the current election. He would never get my vote. He is an anti-vaxxer and belongs with the crazies supporting Maxime Bernier’s libertarian peoples’ party.

But we have conservative leader Erin O’Toole refusing to weed out the anti-vaxxers who are running as conservatives. He needs them. That small, but growing, percentage of Canadians supporting Maxime Bernier’s peoples’ party are what O’Toole needed to follow in the path of Stephen Harper. Instead, polls show his conservatives stuck in a statistical tie with the liberals     

I hated the French debate of Wednesday evening. It was a noisy, overly structured, question and answer session. It proved nothing. It was a status quo discussion between people following their individual scripts. The only time I enjoyed it was when the first question came from a New Brunswick woman. It only made a point to francophones living outside of Quebec. It was the point made by Pierre Trudeau many years ago. Canada is bilingual country and its provinces need to be bilingual. And the Bloc Québécois is an ongoing insult to our Canadian parliament.

I have been working and reworking the figures for the election odds that will be published in Saturday’s Babel-on-the-Bay. I am disappointed with the results the figures come to. Maybe, I am more disappointed with the politicians in this election. Justin Trudeau has hardly lost his arrogance. Erin O’Toole thinks he can tell voters anything just to get elected. Jagmeet Singh might come across as a nice guy who amuses children but when it comes to political success, he can forget it.

It looks like another minority government for the next couple years. That will allow the hiatus needed for the three parties to try to find better leaders. The parties need it and the voters need it.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

O’Toole’s Flip-Flops.

by Peter Lowry

It is unlikely that the air force ever taught conservative leader Erin O’Toole anything about weapons. Navigators mostly stick to the mathematics of figuring out where they are and why they are lost. In fact, based on his recent flip-flops on gun control, I would assume O’Toole knows very little about weapons. Even as a former military weapons specialist, I would be lost in today’s different forms of assault rifles, semi and fully automatic weapons.

What I do know is that they all have one purpose. They are designed to kill and maim as many of the opposing force as possible. They are not for shooting at game animals or birds. They make a hell of a mess of targets if you can hold the weapon steady. And they do make an interesting souvenir, if made permanently inoperable.

Yet, back when the wife and I were raising a family we would never allow a weapon of any type in our home. And I have never seen a need for one since.

But Mr. O’Toole seems to be carrying a brief for the gun lobby. His flip-flops on guns have been puzzling. He started out with a simple statement in his policy booklet that he would not change the liberal government’s ban on some 1500 assault rifles. That was fine. It could even be considered commendable for a conservative.

Mid campaign, he decides to revise his policy. There is now a caveat on the ban. O’Toole tells reporters that, if he is prime minister, he would have a public policy review of firearms classifications. And it would be non-political, as he wants to get the politicians out of controlling firearms.

I can not think of anything stupider than anyone other than politicians making the final decisions on firearms. They make rules on our behalf.

I would not want survivalists to rule on it. They are the ones crazy enough to want to have assault rifles.

Though, I hardly want anyone to take the varmint rifles away from farmers and ranchers. They need them sometimes.

It is a subject that requires the use of common sense. I would like to think our politicians are capable of that.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Throwing the first stone.

by Peter Lowry

And who will throw the first stone? It seems we now have protestors throwing stones at prime minister Justin Trudeau. It is easy to blame the anti-vaxxers, the libertarian extremists of Maxime Bernier, social extremists of the conservative party and the child minds that enjoy the excitement of the scene.

But what if we lay the blame where it belongs: with ourselves? Have we been fair to the position of prime minister? Have we shown the proper respect for the position? Or have we just reflected the anger and frustration we have all felt through the long, frightening days of confusion and pandemic?

Has Justin Trudeau done any less in the job that he wanted? Has he exceeded the boundaries of Canada’s awkward and out-dated constitution? It seems he has done what he can to mitigate the hardships of the pandemic. He faithfully reported on the efforts of the federal government to shore up the mandated responsibilities of our provincial governments. He could do no more than direct federal funds to the hurts in our economy. He searched out the coming vaccines and solutions, shopped, bought, and distributed them just as soon as they became available to us.

But, in six years, he also made his share of mistakes. They hardly need exaggeration. He is, like all of us, an imperfect person. He is a failed feminist. Ask Jody Wilson-Raybould. His choice of charities is “We,” which is a family favourite. As an environmentalist, he has been a disappointment.

And he stands in the spotlight. We have to acknowledge the good and the bad. And we should weigh the successes with the failures.

And we have to weigh him in a bad lot. Do Mr. O’Toole, Mr. Singh or Ms. Paul hold promise for us? Is one of them the answer? Will you accept the vacillations and compromises and inadequacies of their plans for our country?

There is no space on your ballot for ‘None of the Above.’ Your duty to Canada is to vote. This is not a ‘Pin the tail on the donkey’ exercise. Give it your best shot.  This Canadian will watch the debates with open mind. I will publish new odds on the race by Saturday—and then I will vote. I will vote for the candidate who best represents me in my riding.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Decision in Quebec.

by Peter Lowry

There is much riding on the French language debate tomorrow. It could be equated to an English language debate for just Canada’s western provinces. It would have different spectres to address but would raise the same kind of angers and prejudices. It might explain our failures in nation building.

And we are failing. Many blame the rising tempers that we are witnessing as a reflection on the pandemic we have faced so awkwardly. It could run even deeper than that.

Not that Canada is unique. We can see the similar anger in our American neighbours. It is evident on the streets of London, Paris and Rome. We can see it in the continued turmoil of the Middle East, on the streets of Mumbai, the displeasure with governance in Hong Kong, and the intransigence of Beijing.

But that hardly makes Quebec insignificant. Those of us who love what Quebec stands for in a united Canada still worry about what the debate can foretell.

And frankly, if Jagmeet Singh, Erin O’Toole and Annamie Paul missed attending, it would not change much. They are only there to spread confusion. They just add noise. They could possibly win a few votes but are unlikely to affect the outcome in Quebec.

The two candidates with the most to gain and, of course, the most to lose are liberal leader Justin Trudeau and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet. Both speak as native to Quebec.

As we move across Canada on election night, we expect the liberals to have a lead out of the Atlantic provinces. A greater lead out of Quebec would spell at least a liberal minority. And if the vote in Ontario does not cap the lead, there is still hope in British Columbia.

But it is a fair fight between Blanchet and Trudeau. They are both at home in French. Both have a quasi-endorsement by the currently popular provincial government. Each understands the biases and concerns of Quebec voters.

But they differ in interesting ways. Trudeau is to the manor born. Blanchet tries to emulate the modern Québécois business executive. We will watch the debate with interest.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Promises, Promises.

by Peter Lowry

It was while plowing through the major parties’ promises in this election that I realized it was a waste of time. It is not just the wasted promises of those who fail to win. Even the winning party can prioritize its promises and forget those that might not be practical.

The range of promises parties make can be interesting. When the conservative leader started talking about animal rights the other day, I knew this election had gone to the dogs. The facts are that keeping track of the promises and to whom they are made is a herculean task.

And then there are the regional promises. Once again, the conservatives take the prize for quantity over quality. The O’Toole program tells Albertans that there will be more pipelines for the output of Alberta tar sands. Yet he tells Quebec voters that there will be no pipelines there.

At least the NDP are consistent. They are going solve all our problems by taxing the ultra rich. If there is a solution to a problem, the NDP are for it. The only concern is that there might not be enough rich people in Canada to pay for all their solutions.

The only time the NDP got me really confused is when their leader was standing outside a Quebec chip wagon, painted NDP orange, serving what they consider a healthy poutine. I have had poutine off Quebec chip trucks over the years and I can assure you there is no such thing as healthy poutine.

But then they showed us that a wheel had fallen off their chip truck and it was going nowhere. Which made sense for a party going nowhere.

But then we have to look at liberal promises. The typical liberal party platform is being spread across the country like a farmer spreads seed for winter wheat. Some seeds fall on fallow ground and do not germinate. Some produce a plant in the spring.

But unless there is something particularly important to you, you will forget the promises. It is for those reasons that smart politicians build a theme around their promises and they always tell you where the promise fits the theme. We only wish that there were some smart politicians running in this election.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Is there an App for that?

by Peter Lowry

Who was that masked man on the white horse riding to our rescue at Queen’s Park the other day? “Yes,” he said, “There will be vaccine passports in Ontario.” Whether they are working before Christmas, or not, is another matter. Our premier’s reluctant choice is to copy the Quebec app that is only now being introduced. It is an app that you can bluff.

The app, plus government identification with picture, can prove you have had your Covid-19 shots. QR codes by themselves can be copied. QR codes, by themselves, are quite meaningless. Can you just imagine the line-ups and wait time at large sports or musical events? And who is going to check that carefully at restaurants or other venues requiring vaccination?

You get the impression that smart phones and their apps have been sent to this world to annoy us. They should be called “stupid” phones. They are for people who might need a mental crutch to feel important, to answer their questions and get them through the day.

Nobody is that important that they need to answer a phone 24-7. And nobody is that important that they should demand face-time with someone who is addressing bodily functions in a washroom.

An automobile insurance agent could not understand why I laughed when he offered a discount if I gave them access to my smart phone. The company wanted to keep track of my driving. I have an app in my car that does that and it tells me I am a boring driver. The only problem is that giving the insurance company access to your smart phone (if you own one) is particularly intrusive. It is just none of their business where I am and where I am going.

And besides, it is hardly worth the saving. If they wanted to pay for my phone, I might reconsider.

But even then, I am not sure what I would do with a phone that has a higher quality camera in it, than I have ever owned before. I don’t do selfies.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Polls Fail Us.

by Peter Lowry

It is a form of self abuse that I often study the polls that are available on-line. These polls cannot and do not always tell us the truth. Remember, they are a much-manipulated picture of days before. They cannot and do not forecast the future. At best, polls show us weaknesses and strengths of the various parties and help us strategize for different outcomes.

One aspect of current polls is that everyone seems to be ignoring the new democratic party figures. I remember laughing heartily the other day when reading one pundit’s opinion that the NDP were “poised” to make gains. Well, lots of luck with that. The NDP have been virtually flat-lined since before the election was called. The only direction left to the NDP is down! The Party’s ups and downs between 18 and 22 per cent are well within statistical variables.

Jagmeet Singh is not taking the NDP anywhere. The bus left without him. He will have to be replaced as leader for that party after the election. If I believed today’s polls, I would explain that a vote for Mr. Singh’s party in your electoral district could only benefit the conservatives. It could result in a conservative minority supported by the Bloc Québécois.

The best advice for voters who want to make a meaningful vote is to search out the committee rooms of your favoured candidates and go there. Find out when you might have an opportunity to see the candidate in action. Prepare a couple questions which matter to you and be ready to ask them of the candidate. It is only after getting some idea if your choice has a brain or not, that you can make a more meaningful choice for your vote.

It would be a good idea to wear a mask when talking to a conservative candidate. You never know if this person is an anti-vaxxer or not.

If your candidate has to look up the answer to your question in a book of answers, run, don’t walk to the next choice of candidate.

Some people base their vote on either the French or English debate by the party leaders. Bear in mind that at least two out of three of those leaders will be replaced after the election. We will all be better off if you just pick the best and smartest candidate in your riding.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

O’Toole Troubles Mother Nature.

by Peter Lowry

It’s a strange platform that the Mr. O’Toole is trying to sell us. He will promise anything to voters but he fails to understand that he is pissing off Mother Nature. She has certainly been sending clear signals of her displeasure. We have just spent a summer with the West burning and the East baking in the hot weather. Yet, this amateur does not seem to understand that we are creating the problem.

In fact, Erin O’Toole of the conservatives might be the stupidest political leader in this election. The liberal’s Justin Trudeau and the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh might be close behind him but their promises to Mother Nature are, at least, more conciliatory. Trudeau and Singh might both be wrong to support twinning the Trans Mountain pipeline but O’Toole wants to double down by not only finishing the twinning of the Trans Mountain pipeline but he wants to build the currently defunct Northern Gateway pipeline to Kitimat.

And yet O’Toole promises Quebec, no pipelines there. How’s that for hypocrisy?

And what else can O’Toole do to help the recently AWOL premier of Alberta? We all knows that he owes Jason Kenney for helping him win the conservative leadership. It is almost as though Mr. O’Toole does not know what to say, when premier Kenney is not around to tell him what to say.

It is not as though we have a green party that is any sort of alternative. That party is too busy fighting with its leader to pay attention to those of us deeply concerned about how Canada is treating the environment.

The purpose of the twinning the Trans Mountain pipeline is to enable the pipes to carry three times the amount of diluted bitumen, under high pressure, for shipment overseas. The 2015 estimate of the cost of just the twinning was $12.6 billion. Today, it is estimated to exceed $16 billion. And the pipeline cost the government $4.7 billion to begin with.

With an estimated recovery by the federal government over the next 20 years of only about $20 billion, the Trans Mountain project is definitely a losing proposition. There must be far better ways to spend the same money to generate jobs that last and return more to the citizens and their government, in an environment friendlier to Mother Nature.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]