Category: New

Come Back in May.

by Peter Lowry

It was good for a laugh. I was checking some political polls to find out what Ontario premier Doug Ford was reading. He seems to lack any understanding of polling. It is probably best to leave him believing polls taken five months before the election. This politico will decide in early May who is likely to win the Ontario general election scheduled for June 2 this year.

The voters have far more important things to think about this January than the upcoming election. It might be top of mind with the politicians but the voters have far more serious concerns. We are still in the grip of a pandemic. Our hospital system is collapsing. Our children are not in school. A large part of our workforce cannot work. The economy is in a tailspin. The support systems are failing.

And Doug Ford is sitting on the throne of Queen’s Park thinking about his re-election. He might get a surprise in June. He is likely not aware that polls deal in the past, not the future.

But Ontario is not even thinking election. Which benefits Doug Ford’s conservatives, as it does the other two major parties. No matter how the pollsters ask the question, how we would vote gets little thought. Many people are proud that they even know what party is in power at the moment. It has been interesting to note that the other two major parties seem to have equal levels of support. It should not please Doug Ford that more than 50 per cent of respondents do not want to vote for his party.

It is clear that the official opposition at Queen’s Park is going nowhere. Andrea Horwath has been leader of the Ontario new democrats for the past 12 years. She is getting the same level of support as the leader of the liberals, whom most people have neither met nor heard of.

It is obvious that Ontario voters will get a better chance at considering Steven Del Duca, the liberal leader, as the election gets closer. It is also likely that they will get a chance to measure the job Doug Ford has or has not has done in Ontario. Either way, the polls will likely tell more as we get closer to the election in June.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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“Regrets, we’ve had a few.”

by Peter Lowry

Talking to Susan Delacourt of the Toronto Star late last year, prime minister Justin Trudeau complained about the “casual cynicism” of the left. He said we bugged him. Delacourt quotes Trudeau as saying the “You did nothing” refrain turns people against government altogether.  

But that is the public perception and the only answer to that is “Tough.” Mr. Trudeau is the master of his own fate. He should read in the Christian Bible where a leader has been weighed and found wanting. The writing is also on the wall for Justin Trudeau.

He fails to understand that winning elections is having a strong and enthusiastic party behind you. You cannot work to destroy your political party and expect to win majorities. A political party should not be used only as an automated teller machine.

You cannot make rash promises about the last time for first-past-the-post voting and then fail to deliver.

You cannot take the family on a trip to India and embarrass your nation.

You cannot profess to be a feminist and then fail to reconcile with women in your cabinet.

You cannot pass needed legislation about medically-assisted end of life and then have it rejected as inadequate by the courts.

Mr. Trudeau should heed the words of William Shakespeare “The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones.”

Mr. Trudeau is no environmentalist either. You can hardly save our world in 10, 20 or 30 years. The need for action is now.

Freedom of religion is a basic tenet of our country and Mr. Trudeau cannot merely say “Tsk, tsk” over the bigotry of the Quebec Assembly in denying religious symbols.

He can hardly sell reconciliation to Canada’s aboriginals while he vacations with the family in British Columbia.

Mr. Trudeau’s problems can all be better understood when you realize he is an elitist and lacks political sensitivity. It makes it difficult for him to lead.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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Tribal Politics.

by Peter Lowry

One of the least discussed aspects of politics in Canada is the inherent tribalism. It exists, it impacts societal norms, it influences our politicians and how we vote. The smart politician uses our tribalism against us.

The major example of tribalism in Canada is the politics of Quebec. Some think of the stand-off between English and French speakers in the province as racism but as both English speakers and French speakers are of the same racial mixture as Europeans, the language divide can only be described as tribalism.

The other tribalism is in our cities where some immigrant ethnic groups tend to cloister. Growing up in Toronto, I thought most of our immigrants were Italian. I found out later that we were living in an area favoured by new Canadians from Italy. As I grew up, my exploration of the city grew from walking range to bicycle range. This enabled me to see the drift north from the old Jewish community. And then there was the later growth of the Chinese away from the downtown Chinatown into the north-east and the growing concentration of gay establishments and housing centred on Church and Wellesley Streets.

What I realized as a young man was that within the city, you could see the world. It might have been a smaller version of New York City but it rivalled it in many ways. It was Ed Mirvish from Honest Eds’ who created the theatre district. It was Johnny Lombardi’s grocery store that said this was Little Italy. I don’t know who turned the old used-car Danforth Greek but we all benefitted.

But the ethnic concentrations also created political problems. While I spend time researching and advising the liberal party on the communications needs within the many communities, I was less than pleased with the politicians who thought they could use the various communities to ensure their election. And the most serious problem was the candidates who thought using their own ethnic group to get elected was the right way to go.

I remember standing one day at the front of a large high school auditorium with my candidate for a riding nomination, looking at the audience, and saying: “Where in hell did all those Armenians come from?” Years of good relations with Toronto’s Armenian community went down the tubes when the guy who ran the Armenian Centre decided he wanted to become a politician.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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The Ghost Candidate.

by Peter Lowry

The other day, Ontario premier Doug Ford announced his conservative candidate in Durham for the June election will be a long-time law partner of health minister Christine Elliott. The gentleman, so named, made all the right noises at being so honoured. What he might possibly contribute to the well being of voters in Durham did not seem important enough to mention. He becomes just another ghost candidate.

And this is why people who know Canadian politics are deeply concerned about the constant erosion of democracy in this country. It is part of a growing pattern of less and less consideration of the needs of the voters in the electoral district.  It is taking us towards a form of proportional voting where you only get to vote for this party or that party. The voter only gets to hear from the party leader. And that is for whom the votes are cast. It is a system that works very well for countries with a high level of illiteracy.

But the problem is that the system is just one step away from totalitarianism. The only safeguard to the system is when there are enough strong parties to ward against any one party winning a majority in the country’s legislature. And even that is no guarantee.

There are those who think that preferential voting would help preserve our democracy. Preferential voting is where voters number their preferences on the ballot. There is an illusion of fairness as you eliminate the candidates with the least votes and then count their second, third, fourth, etc. choice until someone has more than 50 per cent of the vote. What you have really done—especially when there are a large number of candidates—is drilled down to the least offensive candidate. And that is not what the voter wants when there are problems to be solved in the particular jurisdiction.

Canadians should realize that we have a marvellous system of government where we are able to choose the person to represent us in local, provincial and federal governments. We should be sure to question that person we choose. And we should be certain that he or she has our needs and wants in mind and can effectively speak for us. Ours is a democratic system with many safeguards. Let’s keep it that way.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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The Business of Business.

by Peter Lowry

It has too often been said that the business of business is to make money. That is foolish and incorrect. The only rationale for any business is that it meets a societal want or need.  And, that being said, success can be dependent on the efficacy of matters such as material sourcing, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and it often comes down to being properly priced.

This subject comes to mind in reviewing some of the business news in the past year. Did you pay any attention to the fiasco at Rogers Communications? Did we learn anything from it?

What we learned was that Rogers had its start by a brilliant entrepreneur and then it stumbled after he died. Nepotism guarantees nothing. It is easy to manage the past but nobody can manage the future. Even a good gambler can only read the tells and make assumptions.

But would you bet on Rogers Communications today? And what if your financial advisor says it is a good buy? I expect many advisors are. The pending take-over of Shaw Communications is considered a slam-dunk. It is bad for consumers but nobody seems to worry about them. Even slicing off Freedom Mobile from the deal does nothing for consumers—those cut prices are probably not sustainable unless Freedom is backed by a larger company.

What is concerning is not just the Shaw and Rogers merger but the resulting management. When Ted Rogers ran his company, he took some chances and made some very smart decisions. There is no guarantee what will happen under his successor.

What we saw last year at Rogers was a one-man show that relied on advice from the company’s past. This is not forward-thinking management. What we saw was a tantrum and a family feud. It was inappropriate and badly handled.

The results, once the dust had settled were not encouraging. It makes the likely future of Rogers—with or without the Shaw acquisition—less attractive.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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No Longer ‘United’ States?

by Peter Lowry

Canadians should be very concerned about talk of a divided America. There is nothing friendly about dividing up a country. The antipathy and rancor exist long after the deed is done. Americans tend to forget, that the American Civil War killed more Americans than any other conflict in which the country has been involved. And to try to divide America along the current red and blue state lines is ridiculous.

There is no north-south division to be made these days. And America would not exist as a bunch of banana republics either. California, New York and Texas could be viable countries by themselves, despite some ongoing ruction between cities and rural areas. While the blue states on the east and west coasts would do nicely, thank you, there is a lot of red state territory in between. In fact, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin would survive the breakup best by asking to join with friendly Canada.

But Canada would hardly benefit immediately from the American states having a falling out. You could kiss the free trade agreement goodbye with the red states. Even with a Trump-type dictatorship, trade agreements would be extremely difficult to arrange.

The long-term benefit to Canada could be in the dramatic migration of population around North America. The stability of Canada would attract an educated flow of immigrants with valuable skills.

The response to a fractured America would also give rise to the aspirations of world trading blocks. The Chinese, for example, would want to strengthen their trade position with South Asia. The Russians would be even less charming as they tried to return to their former dominance of Eastern Europe. The Middle East, Africa and South America would find they now have new friends. And I, for one, can see the Brits begging to get back into the European Union.

No doubt many scholarly tomes will be written about the possibilities of a shattered America. Let us hope it does not happen and we have time left to save our planet.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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An Exciting Year Ahead.

by Peter Lowry

With the prospect of more covid to cure, there are those less enthusiastic about the year ahead. For a political junkie though, this is going to be an exciting year in Ontario. The political parade will be fascinating. The first, that all Canadians will be watching, is the provincial election in Ontario slated for June 2. That will be the date when Ontario decides what to do about Doug Ford and his bombast. We will round out the year in Ontario with our municipal elections in October.

What fascinates me are the Ontario voters who are committed conservatives. Most appear to be convinced that Doug Ford will get a second term. I expect that they feel this way as he has done such a rotten job in the first four years that they want him to have a second chance.

And I do remember how appalled we were when the Mike Harris conservative government won re-election in 1999. Bad things can happen to good people.

One conservative pointed out to me that in a choice between a new democratic government led by Andrea Horwath and a liberal government led by a liberal nobody knows, why not vote for Ford? That was another frightening thought.

In case you were not aware, the name of the liberal party leader is Steven Del Duca. He is not a member of the legislature at this time but was a member of the Kathleen Wynne cabinet. I realize that is not exactly a ringing endorsement but it is hard to recommend someone as premier when he has been sniping from the sidelines.

The other choice is Andrea Horwath. She has been leader of the new democratic party in Ontario since 2009 and has gone nowhere.

I expect Ford’s biggest boosters in this coming election will be the developers who have bought farms along the proposed route of Highway 413. They definitely want to see him re-elected. Whether that highway ever gets built is another matter.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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‘God Bless America.’

by Peter Lowry

Somebody has to care about our neighbouring republic. It is being torn apart by strife and greed and ignorance. The Americans started 2021 by letting the zoo’s inmates attack the nation’s Capitol. The Trump is working from his lair in Florida plotting his return. And the only person we trust to tell us what is going on there is the Toronto Star’s Edward Keenan. The guy has come into his own as Washington Bureau chief for the Toronto newspaper and has been doing a superb job.

It is not as though we do not have family and friends in many parts of the U.S. We can call anytime and ask how things are going. The answer always seems to start with: ‘Oh God.’ And it is the same whether they are democratic supporters or republican or born-again or never-again or from the boonies of the west or the cities of the east. You do know there are people who believe what Donald Trump is telling them? And what he is saying is more than enough to cause concern.

At the moment the strife can be referred to as the ‘phony war.’ Both sides think they are fighting the pandemic. And they are losing that war as well. With over 50 million recorded incidents of the disease already, the country is closing on a million pandemic deaths. The most serious disappointment is that the anti-vaxxers are not the only ones dying from the disease.

Keenan wrote recently about the past year and says that the outlook is not good. He doesn’t go as far as to discuss the potential for civil war. It just seems unreasonable to have all those goddamn guns everywhere and not use them on your fellow Americans.

Keenan describes 2021 in the U.S.A. as the same as being on a year-long bender. Though it is hard to say how much is alcohol. It is hard to understand why Biden is having the problems with democratic politicians.

In an honest admission, Keenan reports that 2021 has not been a good year for Joe Biden. And he doesn’t think 2022 is going to be any better.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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The Last Christmas Card.

by Peter Lowry

The wife and I were surprised and pleased by the number of season’s greetings we received this December. This damn Covid-19 is not wiping out our entire generation. What we expect to be the last card for this year arrived while we were having breakfast on December 30. (Yes, we get mail delivery to our door.) As the crow flies, the distance that card travelled would be measured in metres. We live just a couple blocks from Barrie city hall and this card was from the Barrie mayor.

It was appropriate, as at the time, we were discussing the political prospects for Mayor Tory of Toronto. We agreed that John Tory had done a fine job for Toronto and merited a third four-year term. Despite Mayor Tory being a conservative, I think he is the first mayor of the amalgamated city of 6.8 million, who really understands the city and the kind of mayor it needs.

John Tory has been a voice of compassion and reason throughout the last two years. He has been everywhere in the city and has helped it handle the problems of close living during a pandemic.

And I wish I could say that for the mayor of Barrie. It is typical of Mayor Lehman in Barrie (a city of 156,000) that his Christmas card would arrive six days after Christmas. And despite living so close to city hall, the last time I think I talked to the mayor was four years ago when he had no trouble running for a third term. I did hear him on a local radio station recently about some problem with the pandemic but his voice was so muffled, the station should have been embarrassed by the sound quality.

And Jeff Lehman is a liberal. At least, he was when I helped him win the mayoralty 11 years ago. He was the ideal candidate. He drove at door-knocking like an old-time Fuller Brush man. He was tireless.

If only he had brought that same level of energy to the mayor’s job, there is no telling how far this city would have come through his three terms. He can blame it on the majority of conservative party adherents on council if he wishes, but as John Tory has proved in Toronto, leadership matters.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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The Tzar of the Toll Roads.

by Peter Lowry

It seems the taxpayers in Ontario are paying for the warm-up to next June’s provincial election. Premier Doug Ford is betting that any and all mention of the Bradford Bypass and Highway 413 is another conservative re-elected. Ford is betting that voters in the greater Toronto area (GTA) are tired of the gridlock around Toronto and the hours spent on gridlocked highways.

But what Doug Ford does not seem to realize is that there are many years of planning behind these projects and they also require many years of any construction. And, frankly, the wasted time on the Highway 413—going from nowhere to nowhere—would involve paving over some very fine farmland and critically needed wetlands. The only people pleased with that bad planning are the developers who have been buying up the farmland around where the 413 would intersect with existing major north-south routes.

A government concerned about our environment would have ended the Hwy 413 speculation years ago. What the previous government was working on was the electrification of the GO trains. This is a critical need to speed commuter services. It requires new overpasses and power lines but will add more trains, coming up to speed faster and stopping faster. It will cut commute time. On the Barrie to Toronto run, a half hour can be cut from the time needed from Kempenfelt Bay to Union Station. The less pollution is a bonus.

And while the idea of having these new highways as toll roads must leave conservatives with goosebumps, Mr. Ford is denying it. He is at least smart enough to know that Ontario voters are annoyed with the tolls on the 407, 412 and 418. Not only are they priced too high for the benefits they offer but the money from them does not go to building new roads. After the election, the conservatives might get greedy and start selling toll roads again.

And the least likely to ever be a toll road—or anything else—is the 413. That particular plan parallels the 407 electronic toll route, only a short distance south. Having those two highways feeding west bound traffic onto the 401 near Georgetown is quite ridiculous. The Bradford bypass was never supposed to be a toll road as it is designed to move traffic from highway 404 over to highway 400 to take it around Lake Simcoe.

It should be mentioned that when the conservative government of Mike Harris leased Hwy 407 for 99 years, they got $3.1 billion for it. Today the highway is estimated to be worth ten times as much to the investor group.

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Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]