Category: Provincial Politics

Recognizing Leadership.

by Peter Lowry

The other day, we mentioned that every candidate for the liberal party in the coming provincial election in Ontario needs to demonstrate leadership. It is not that the party does not have a leader but most voters do not know him. Which is awkward in an election that is really about leadership.

The point is that Doug Ford has failed Ontario. His populist style during the pandemic has been a disaster. We spent a great deal of our time in the past two years trying to make sense of Ontario’s on-again, off-again regulations to try to contain the pandemic. And here we were trying to go along with his regulations and neither he nor his cabinet believed in them. They often ignored their own rules.

Ford and his cronies are desperately trying to improve their falling vote as the election gets closer. The election advertising this early is starting to annoy people who realize that the ads are paid for by the province. There is one running endlessly on the television networks that shows a province that that is so glamourized that people are wondering what province it is advertising.

The conservatives are puzzling over whether they have to campaign hardest against the new democrats or the liberals. At the moment, they probably consider the NDP the main target. The problem with that is that nobody considers Andrea Horwath an effective leader. And since most people do not know liberal Steven Del Duca, his leadership ability is unknown.

And that puts the heavy lifting on the liberal candidates across Ontario. It means that instead of taking the lazy route and just running what party headquarters in Toronto tells them, the candidates have to be aggressive and creative. They have to sell themselves to the voters in their electoral district. They have to be aware of and promoting solutions to what concerns their voters the most. They have to get elected the old-fashioned way and convince the voters that they can best represent them at Queen’s Park.

And if liberal leader Steven Del Duca gets around to any smart ideas for Ontario voters, that will just be a plus. It is still up to the individual candidate to win in their riding.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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Populism Run Rampant.

by Peter Lowry

Ontario premier Doug Ford seems to have a new motto. It is “If it is worth doing, it is worth overdoing.” The June 2 election is looming and Ford has good reason to be worried. He has made few friends (other than developers) over the past four years and he likes being called premier. And he can hardly trust the fact that he has no opposition to save him from having his fat ass punted down University Avenue on June 2.

His chances of re-election are so dismal as to get him cancelling the cost of renewing Ontario vehicle licence plates this year. And if you have already paid for that renewal sticker, he will have the province send you a cheque. How he is going to replace that money going into the transportation ministry, we have no idea. And neither does the premier.

But then, he has no idea how much damage he has done to education and health services of Ontario. While he has had to promise millions in increases to support hospitals and school boards, his government has spent little of the money. The disgraceful treatment of nurses alone in the throes of a pandemic is an indication of how cheap and mean he can be. Why anyone in healthcare or teaching would vote for his government in June would be a puzzle.

And yet he will campaign on the money he has saved throughout the pandemic. His act that was passed by his government to have a budget prepared each year by the end of March has once more been swept aside. This year, his only excuse is that he wants voters to hear his pre-election budget closer to election day. It only means that the budget will be a farce. It will neither be believable nor likely to ever be implemented.

The only political possibility for the Ford government on June 2 is that there is no cohesive or organized opposition to his government. The new democrats have the same do-nothing, whiny leader for the past ten years and the liberals have no visible leadership in the legislature. The best that could happen is that the three major parties could each end up with a third of the seats in the legislature. The only benefit to that would be that there would be a liberal-NDP coalition to make sure Doug Ford is out of the premier’s office.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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A Pragmatic Cop-out.

by Peter Lowry

It was 12 years ago that I helped elect a new mayor for Barrie, Ontario where I was now living. It was fun. I liked the candidate and his wife. It was an excellent way to really get to know my new city. The three-term mayor announced the other day that he wants to run provincially in my electoral district of Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte. I was delighted that he finally decided to take the plunge.

The good news in this is that the riding can get rid of the carpetbagger that Doug Ford dumped on us in the 2018 election. As attorney general of Ontario, conservative Doug Downey has been of no use to the city or any of the surrounding rural areas. He was the man who was never here. He might have done something for where he lives up in Severn but Barrie was forgotten. He likely spent more time driving through Barrie on Highway 400 than he did in the actual city. He is nothing but a ward healer from small town Ontario.

The good news is that mayor Jeff Lehman is a strong campaigner. I ran the ground game for him in his first mayoralty campaign and it was a pleasure to work with him. I had him working three carefully selected polls a day in the summer of 2010. He enjoyed the challenge. I went along some days to see how we were doing but, at almost twice his age, he could always out last me.

But nobody is perfect. Lehman was supposed to have written an opinion piece for the Toronto Star the other day that signalled his move to the provincial scene. It read like something a political science major would write. It was lauding pragmatism in politics. Luckily, there are few readers of the Toronto Star in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte. Pragmatism is the lowest level of the political paradigm. It is used by the lazy and unthinking. It is the solution of the populist and the uncaring. It can never replace leadership and ideas.

And this is a time when the liberal party in Ontario has to showcase leadership. Ontario voters have had enough of Doug Ford’s phony populism. Every liberal candidate in the June 2 election has to run on leadership potential. It is the pragmatic path to getting elected.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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Please Arrest Hillier.

by Peter Lowry

At various times, Randy Hillier, an MPP from Eastern Ontario, has been known to call others “Nutbars.” It looks like he has finally joined those ranks. He advised supporters of the Freedom Convoy in Ottawa to plug the 911 help lines in Ottawa. That is the same as advising people to shout “Fire” in a crowded theater. It is irresponsible and it is illegal. It spells the end to a very edgy political career.

Not that it is a proud legacy. Randy first came to notice as the founder of the Ontario Landowners Association. It started in Renfrew and then Lanark County and spread across rural Ontario like a pandemic. Landowners are gun nuts who believe they own their land and the province has no rights over their land. It really went downhill when the landowners had an illegal deer hunt because the deer were eating crops. The province let them get away with killing deer. They still hate wind turbines, environmentalists and Trudeaus—both father and son. The Landowners have continued getting more ambitious as time goes on. They probably contributed most of the tractors that were littering downtown Ottawa this February.

Politically, Randy and the Landowners are extreme right-wing fodder for Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party. It appears that since Doug Ford kicked Randy Hillier out of the Ontario conservatives, Randy will be running in the June provincial election for the Ontario First Party—the Ontario branch of the People’s Party. We will all watch with interest to see how the voters of Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston react to that. Just why the voters in that part of Ontario have sent Randy to Queen’s Park since 2007 has always been a puzzle.

But first Randy should do some jail time. He has yet to be charged with inciting disregard of the laws protecting 911 calls from misuse. While I have never heard of anyone over the age of 15 being charged for that offence, Randy should spend some of his second childhood in the hoosegow.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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Kenney’s Confusion.

by Peter Lowry

Heard the other day that Alberta Premier Jason Kenney intends to go to court to block the Trudeau government’s use of the Emergency Measures Act. That is a little late and a loonie short. If Kenney paid attention to the court of public opinion, he would realize the case has been made and the court has ruled.

The removal of the “Freedom Convoy” convoy from Parliament Hill provided Canadians with many hours of an enjoyable reality show. It was one of those shows that if you took a washroom break and even stayed to have a shower, you did not miss much.

One lesson learned was that you do not use snowballs when the cops have pepper spray. It was a purely Canadian event. We have seen news clips of crowd control from around the world. We have seen people beaten with batons, stomped with heavy boots, soaked by water cannon, hit by rubber bullets and murdered with real bullets. That is not the Canadian way. We use patience, oodles of warnings, pamphlets, and announcements. That boot in the ass you got might not have been accidental but you probably had expended your entire vocabulary of expletives on the boot-owner first.

Kenney’s only argument against using the act is that the border crossing problems had been resolved without massive police action. And he is right. Small events require small reactions: large events require larger actions. The borders had been cleared before we moved the larger forces into Ottawa. There is no question that 100 cops facing off against a thousand protestors is a killer confrontation. That is when people get hurt needlessly.

Watching Kenney in Alberta these days is like watching a lab rat in the final stages of a study of a serious disease. He came west to ‘unite the right’ and stayed to try to lead it. He was following the path of his mentor Stephen Harper. Without the glue that Harper used to tie the disparate factions of the right together, Kenney was doomed to fail. He is a failure in authoritarianism, and awaits the final decision of Alberta voters.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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Trouble for Legault.

by Peter Lowry

Usually, public opinion polls seven months before an election are just a ‘Ho-hum.’ They have little meaning. The recent Leger poll in Quebec was an exception.  What it told us was that François Legault’s right wing separatist party was getting some right-wing competition. It could mean an opportunity for one of the left-of-centre parties and a change of government in Quebec.

But it is early. No major change is yet in the offing. Change requires both push and pull. It requires one or more parties to pull into contention territory. It requires people across the province pushing for change.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has been the only right-wing party in the province. It is a spin-off from the left-wing Parti Québécois.

But the new right-wing Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) is delving into the growth in extreme right-wing politics and gaining attention. The fact that a well-known radio host, Éric Duhaime is leading the party is a factor. He is something of a trouble maker and has been accused of promoting Islamophobia and speaking out against immigration. He is unlikely to get a break in Montreal where the liberals are still strong but he could cause trouble for the CAQ in the Quebec City region.

You have to assume that Legault has already recognized the potential damage from the PCQ and that is why he pulled back on the proposed health tax on the unvaccinated. He can hardly afford to lose too many of the far right.

Legault must be regretting his lockdowns now. Even though he has announced the end of most measures by March 14, he is being criticized for the delay. He hardly wants to give the extreme right more of a target for their anger.

It has been a long time since Quebec had a clearly right-wing provincial government. Few would remember the Maurice “Le Chef” Duplessi era, the Union Nationale and the Padlock Law.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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A future for Ontario Casinos?

by Peter Lowry

They are launching Ontario’s barrage of licensed on-line casinos in April. The timing is terrible. This push for Internet gaming will happen as Ontario’s casinos are trying to get back on their feet after close to two years of lost revenues. It’s a foolish cash grab by the province to try to pull in more revenue when the job-creating casinos are trying to recover.

But looking at what the casinos are doing to try to compete makes even less sense. They are reducing staff. They think they can compete by replacing staff with electronics. They seem to have lost sight of the what makes casinos attractive. A casino is not just gaming. A good casino is an event. It is entertainment and it is a people thing. Let me explain:

The first time I went to Las Vegas was over 50 years ago. I loved the excitement, the crowds, the friendliness, the sociability of gambling with others, the restaurants, the shows. I lost some money gambling that first time, but I stuck to the one and two-dollar tables that were available then. I also got some good advice from dealers and picked up the books they recommended.

Since then, I have visited casinos around North America and in Europe. My game is blackjack. I also like the fun of American craps and the single-zero roulette of Europe. I have always enjoyed poker but learned early that there are teams lurking at those tables ready to skin the unwary. It is fun leading them on by acting the bumpkin, but you can only pull that ploy once.

My one observation about Ontario casinos is that people in Ontario are likely the worst blackjack players in the world. And they have no idea when to quit. They break the two cardinal rules of casino gambling. First you have to know how much you can afford to lose. And you never play machines that say “ATM.”

Great Canadian Gaming and Gateway Casinos are two of the largest casino management companies and they are both guilty of discouraging the natural friendliness that makes casino gambling a pleasurable time with good food, entertainment, smiling service and easy access to the games of your choice.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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Ontario NDP Go Nowhere.

by Peter Lowry

It is almost sad. Only 15 per cent of the Ontario new democratic party voted against keeping MPP Andrea Horwath as leader. The vote appeared to be the result of an online poll taken on a recent weekend during a virtual convention for the provincial party.

Since there was no report of the party making any decisions about where it wants to take Ontario, the choice of Andrea Horwath as leader seems to be inconsequential. She has been leader for more than a decade and one can only assume she is not leading the party anywhere.

It was almost four years ago that liberal leader Kathleen Wynne surrendered the liberal party before the votes were cast in the election. It was serious missed opportunity for the new democrats. Premier Wynne and Andrea Horwath were handmaidens delivering the voters of Ontario into the hands of an incompetent conservative regime.

We can well assume that the new democrats must regret their lack of drive four years ago but why have they not done something about it?

Standing up in the legislature and whining about the lack of action by the government is not the soul role of the opposition in the legislature. The opposition is expected to suggest improvements in legislation. It is expected to suggest constructive action when it is not perceived as necessary by the government of the day. That is the opposition’s role on behalf of the voters.

Ms. Horwath is under the impression that all it takes to defeat the Ford regime is to remind the voters of that government’s inadequate answers to the concerns of Ontario through the erratic shut-downs and conflicting rules during the various stages of the pandemic.

And there is no leadership coming from the liberals in the legislature. They elected a leader and he never ran for a bye-election. He thought he could do the job from outside the legislature. He is the man who is never there.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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Chantal can be wrong.

by Peter Lowry

Having always admired Chantal Hébert’s ability to analyze the Quebec political scene, does not necessarily mean she fully understands Ontario politics. For the Toronto Star columnist to buy into the old chestnut that Ontario voters consciously elect conservatives provincially when liberals are in power federally is ridiculous. Nor is it necessarily reflected in the drift of political denizens from the back rooms and front benches between the two levels of government.

I have always seen the situation as being more akin to the tradition of rats abandoning the old sailing ships. There are some exceptions to that but considering the people that Ontario conservatives inherited from the failed Harper conservatives who were defeated in 2015 in Ottawa, I hardly think Doug Ford got the cream of the crop.

Doug Ford’s biggest problem as premier is his ego. This guy doesn’t really listen to anybody. He reflects maybe on the advice he received from his late brother Rob who made it to the mayor’s office in Toronto. Ford still cannot believe he is the premier of Ontario. And there is little reason to suspect that he will still be in that position this coming July.

While there is little doubt that Ford and his government will have to agree to join the national daycare program, they are doing themselves more harm every day that they delay. He thinks he can hold out for a sweeter deal but the reality is that the Trudeau government knows they don’t have to cave to his pleading for more. The fact that the Ontario program would include children in all-day kindergarten is a plus but there is no reason for the federal government to pay for that portion.

The inclusion of payment for the schooling portion of the Ontario program would be looked on as an incursion into provincial jurisdiction by other provinces. Chantal can tell you how provincial politicians in Quebec would react to that.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

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Don’t Bet on a Minority.

by Peter Lowry

Politicos and observers are doing some wishful thinking to believe there is likely to be a minority government after Ontario’s June provincial election. Voters are faced with three major party leaders that they either dislike, don’t know or distrust. This is obviously not one of the better times for political leadership in Ontario. It is how the four major voting blocks of voters respond to this leadership situation that will determine the outcome. And it is obvious from the polls that there is lots of room for changed attitudes in the coming four months.

There is a slight electoral edge for the Ontario progressive conservatives. The conservative voting block is about 25 per cent of eligible voters. The party is strong in rural areas where fewer votes can win the seat. The party has been in power for almost four years now with a mixed bag of smart moves and dumb moves. It is a party friendly to the rich and panders to the anti-abortion activists, gun enthusiasts, anti-vaxxers and people who have no understanding of our tax system and what it pays for.

The party’s problems are that nobody is impressed with the handling of the pandemic, nobody believes we really need the new highway 413 and there are conservative voters willing to concede that premier Doug Ford is incompetent. He is both disliked and distrusted.

The liberal voters are the other major voting block. They also have a base of about 25 per cent of eligible voters but are more concentrated in urban centres, where you need more votes to win the seat. While they tell everyone they are progressive, they are generally considered good mangers. They are business friendly and cater to the younger voters.

The liberal party’s most serious problem this time is that nobody knows their new leader. He has not won any awards lately in getting himself known. The one ridiculous pledge he has made to voters is that he will quit if gets to be premier and does not change how we vote in this province.

The third large voting block in Ontario are the 30 per cent of voters who always have some reason not to vote. This is a mixed bag of people, who either do not care, do not understand, do not believe in voting, have gone on vacation or have died. The one thing you can count on is that they always confuse the pollsters. And they are why the major parties make the effort to be sure voters, identified by their party as supporters, get to the polls.

The smaller bloc of voters, about 20 per cent, are the new democratic party (NDP) supporters. The Ontario party’s problems are basically a lack of direction and poor leadership for more than a decade. It is unlikely that many in Ontario would trust NDP leader Andrea Horwath in the premier’s chair.

It is a waiting game.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]