Provincial Politics – Page 6

Don’t Bet on a Minority.

January 30, 2022January 30, 2022 by Peter Lowry

Politicos and observers are doing some wishful thinking to believe there is likely to be a minority government after Ontario’s June provincial election. Voters are faced with three major party leaders that they either dislike, don’t know or distrust. This is obviously not one of the better times for political leadership in Ontario. It is how the four major voting blocks of voters respond to this leadership situation that will determine the outcome. And it is obvious from the polls that there is lots of room for changed attitudes in the coming four months.

There is a slight electoral edge for the Ontario progressive conservatives. The conservative voting block is about 25 per cent of eligible voters. The party is strong in rural areas where fewer votes can win the seat. The party has been in power for almost four years now with a mixed bag of smart moves and dumb moves. It is a party friendly to the rich and panders to the anti-abortion activists, gun enthusiasts, anti-vaxxers and people who have no understanding of our tax system and what it pays for.

The party’s problems are that nobody is impressed with the handling of the pandemic, nobody believes we really need the new highway 413 and there are conservative voters willing to concede that premier Doug Ford is incompetent. He is both disliked and distrusted.

The liberal voters are the other major voting block. They also have a base of about 25 per cent of eligible voters but are more concentrated in urban centres, where you need more votes to win the seat. While they tell everyone they are progressive, they are generally considered good mangers. They are business friendly and cater to the younger voters.

The liberal party’s most serious problem this time is that nobody knows their new leader. He has not won any awards lately in getting himself known. The one ridiculous pledge he has made to voters is that he will quit if gets to be premier and does not change how we vote in this province.

The third large voting block in Ontario are the 30 per cent of voters who always have some reason not to vote. This is a mixed bag of people, who either do not care, do not understand, do not believe in voting, have gone on vacation or have died. The one thing you can count on is that they always confuse the pollsters. And they are why the major parties make the effort to be sure voters, identified by their party as supporters, get to the polls.

The smaller bloc of voters, about 20 per cent, are the new democratic party (NDP) supporters. The Ontario party’s problems are basically a lack of direction and poor leadership for more than a decade. It is unlikely that many in Ontario would trust NDP leader Andrea Horwath in the premier’s chair.

It is a waiting game.

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Levering Legault.

January 25, 2022January 24, 2022 by Peter Lowry

If there is one thing all politicians need to understand, it is that a margin of one or two per cent in opinion polls is meaningless. A strong breeze can blow that lead away the next day. One minute you are on top and the next, you are running for cover. Experienced politicians only look at polls to see the trends.

But nobody should assume that premier François Legault of Quebec is all that experienced. His Coalition Avenir Québec (Coalition for Quebec’s future) is a right-wing spin-off from the Parti Québécois. He is a conservative. He uses insipient separatism to make demands of the rest of Canada. And he is still feeling his way on just how much he can piss off the rest of the country.

What is interesting is that when Legault told Quebec voters to vote conservative in last year’s federal election, nobody seemed to be listening. That was a strong indication that he has a problem. It has been a long time since Quebec has had a truly conservative government. Pandering to the latent bigotry of Quebec is not the answer either. It is something the province has been trying to outgrow. Bigotry is for the old, living in the past. The young want something better.

What Legault does not seem to understand is that the youth of Quebec are not necessarily Quebec-centred. They know there is a world out there. There is opportunity out there. They think it is cool to preserve and speak French. They think it is cool to also speak English. Bilingualism means opportunities. It means better jobs. It means travel. They know that Canadians are welcome in most countries around the world.

And they are not wasting their time on foolishness such as Bill 21. They are mostly immune to religious symbols. They mean little. They can show allegiance, yes. They can also be nothing more than a fashion statement. And what people might wear in desert countries is not always the appropriate wear in Canada’s climate. Our country needs our newcomers. We have to give them time and even generations to be at home.

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The Time of the Turtle.

January 24, 2022January 23, 2022 by Peter Lowry

With the upcoming provincial election in Ontario, liberal leader Steven Del Duca is starting to get some television coverage. Watching him talk on TV, he still reminds me of a turtle. Mind you, even if turtles have no teeth, their bite can be serious. They have very strong jaws.

And this is the time when the pressure has to be put on the Ontario conservatives. Ford and his cronies have just made their biggest gamble. They have bet the worst of the pandemic is over. And we all have to hope they are reading the situation correctly.

But they are also letting the hounds loose. The healthcare workers are exhausted and angry with the mistreatment. The teachers—even with better masks—are concerned with restoring the classrooms. The provincial economy is in turmoil. Opening restaurants is showing us the problems erratic openings and closings over the last year have caused. Lost staff, lost customers, lost confidence and extended debt are hurting the entire retail and service sector. Add to that the extremes of inflation and problems in the supply chain.

And we are all exhausted with the pandemic. It has taken a serious toll. The thousands of deaths have left us shaken. We need to rebuild our confidence. We no longer need the brash, populist and phony politicians. We need to rebuild with builders we can trust. We have to clamp down on the gun culture and stop killing our young people.

We also need cooperation. We need all levels of government to work in unison. We need the parties to forget their ideology and do what is right. We need a reset. Let the petty squabbles of parliament and legislature and councils rest, dammit. Get together to restore our economy. Build a future. Do not forget the past but use it only as a baseline.

Maybe it is a good time for turtles. They live longer than most pets. The big ones can outlive humans. Maybe in Ontario, we should keep an open mind about the coming election.

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Doug Doubles Down.

January 23, 2022January 22, 2022 by Peter Lowry

In Ontario, casino gamblers are allowed to double their blackjack bet on any two cards totaling nine, ten or eleven. This is called a ‘double down.’ Since most Ontario gamblers do not understand just when this bet is to their advantage, they still lose lots. Premier Doug Ford is doubling down against the pandemic by betting that the peak of hospitalization and pressure on intensive care has been passed for the Omicron variation.

His government is more than eager to see the end of the pandemic and hopes to bask in the glow of approval for a good guess during the June election. He is betting that the medical personnel who believe the worst is over are correct and the naysayers are wrong. And it is the one time when a majority of the population would certainly agree with him.

After all, if the Pope could promise that it is over there would be line-ups at all the Catholic churches tomorrow. And Doug Ford only wants their vote.

But Ford started with a Children’s Crusade. He has sent the children back to school on promises. He spent money on air filters and better masks for teachers. He is also planning on not telling Ontario parents just how many children and teachers fall ill.

If all goes well, his government is opening up dine-in restaurants to half their capacity at the end of January. Gyms and cinemas will also be re-opening at that time, also to a 50 per cent capacity.

There will be some further numbers restrictions lifted by the end of January but the next major re-openings are not expected until February 21. If there are no further setbacks, Ontario is hoping to be open all venues to vaccinated patrons by March 14.

The government is gambling that all restrictions can be lifted for when the writ for the provincial election comes down towards the end of April.

It would be foolish to hope Ford and his conservatives are wrong but I still would not vote for them.

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Forecasting Ford’s Future.

January 21, 2022 by Peter Lowry

They are starting to measure the balance of premier Doug Ford’s tenancy at Queen’s Park in terms of weeks. The only problem Ontario voters are really facing after the June 2 election is just who will replace Ford. When you mention the nebbish Andrea Horwath of the NDP and the unknown Steven Del Duca of the liberals, a pained look comes to voters’ faces.

As the astronauts say: We’ve got a problem. It is the simple fact that time is short for the liberals to come up with the rational for voting for your local liberal candidates. Yes, getting rid of that guy Ford makes sense but you need to include a positive reason for the votes.

And something as stupid as telling people you will change how they elect future governments in Ontario is not going to make the cut. A simple plan to stop the escalation in housing costs in Ontario would be a possible solution. We hardly want to hurt those who have made large investments in their housing but we have to have housing available for the younger generations in Ontario who want to have a family.

Ford foolishly has promised $45 million to the larger municipalities to make it easier for his developer friends to build new subdivisions. His solution does little for housing costs. Neither do the new democrat’s solutions. They want expanded rent controls and government support for first-time buyers.

The next most serious need for the liberals is name candidates. They need candidates that are already known in their electoral district. We are running out of time for candidates who are not known. It takes many months of work to become known (in a positive way) to local voters.

And you can hardly hope that we will be Covid-free in time for the election. As much as Ford and the conservatives would like to take the credit for an ebbing of pressure on our health system, their hit and miss pandemic approach is doing almost as much damage as the pandemic itself.

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Government Giving in to Greed.

January 18, 2022January 17, 2022 by Peter Lowry

It’s the greed that keeps on growing. Premier Doug Ford wants Ontario to step up its gambling. If the pandemic keeps the casinos closed, feel free to try your luck on-line. What is your pleasure? Casino games, blackjack, craps, poker, pai gow, roulette and slot machine simulations or new sports betting, just name your passion. And make sure that premier Doug gets his cut of the take.

And our premier is not thinking small. The Ontario government wants a share of the potential on-line billions. He and his government are betting that we will trust the Ontario-based on-line casinos over the off-shore breed. The government estimates that the on-line market in Ontario is worth at least a billion dollars a year, while the industry downplays it as about half a billion.

With Ontario casinos closed for the pandemic, the government is obviously hurting. Ontario Lottery and Gaming (OLG) cannot do its job. And don’t look too surprised in the next month or so if Rod Phillips, former MPP and long-term care minister, shows up as head of the Alcohol and Gaming Commission or running its new iGame Ontario operations. The job will be to get the gaming gravy train moving again.

And with reputable sponsors such as the Toronto Star operators offering to front for one of the iGame Ontario licensees, there are some positive indicators.

What might also help to swing Ontario to the on-line versions will be the short-sightedness of the large Ontario casino managers. Neither Great Canadian Gaming nor Gateway Casinos and Entertainment are good at customer facing. They seem bent on eliminating many of the dealers and customer services on their gambling floors. Neither company will entertain having fully staffed craps tables despite the proven draw of craps in places like Las Vegas. Both companies will be pushing large electronic versions of customer favourites such as blackjack, roulette, and craps when back in operation.

There is a great draw for people in the noise and excitement of casinos and their table games. If all the government wants is our money, why bother?

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The Dilettante Departs.

January 16, 2022January 15, 2022 by Peter Lowry

Rod Phillips always struck me as a dilettante in business and in politics. I guess I thought of him as former Metro Toronto Chair and newspaper mogul, Paul Godfrey’s protégé. He was also always on the good side of the Lastman family. He piloted the late Mel Lastman through a few stormy seas as the first mayor of the newly amalgamated greater Toronto. It was really too bad that he could not give himself the same good advice.

Rod Phillips has always seemed to have an inflated impression of his invulnerability. He considered his holiday trips to Switzerland and the Caribbean in 2020 were of nobody’s business but his. When he went to St. Barts for Christmas, against the advice of the Canadian government, he even had premier Doug Ford lying for him. That fiasco cost him the job of finance minister for Ontario.

You can’t keep a guy like Phillips out of the limelight for long. Ford foisted the most thankless job in Ontario on him. Long-term care homes in Ontario have been going downhill for many years. Former conservative premier of Ontario, Mike Harris, is the poster boy for private long-term care homes and is still chair of Chartwell, the largest private sector long-term care provider in Canada.

If you have never seen a fish out of water, you should have seen Phillips at some of the photo ops prepared for the minister at those long-term care homes. It was though he was afraid to touch anything.

(Let me add a personal note here: As president of the Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada and as chair of public education for the International Federation of Multiple Sclerosis Societies, I have visited long-term care homes across Canada and in many parts of the world. Ontario has nothing to brag about.)

Probably Phillips’ main success in long-term care was to mandate that all staff be vaccinated. And if that was a no-brainer, he also made sure some inspectors were hired so that the province might defend the homes with more knowledge of the situation.

And there he goes, off to his next challenge in the world of business. He left when only half the long-term care homes in Ontario had outbreaks of Covid.

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Thanks to ‘Doctor’ Ford.

January 15, 2022January 14, 2022 by Peter Lowry

You have to admit, you pay more attention when Ontario premier Doug Ford or one of the other premiers tells you what to do to ward off Covid-19–Beta, Delta or Omicron. Ford got the idea from the prime minister. He just lacks the self-assurance to do a single such as Justin Trudeau used to do in front of Rideau Cottage. Ford brings along a doctor or two, or, at least the minister of health, for back up.

He even brings along his boy wonder, the minister of education, when speaking about the opening or closing schools. (We do that a lot in Ontario.)

At the moment, our restaurants are closed and the schools will be open next week—maybe. The gyms are definitely closed—unless, maybe, your customer can be certified as having a medical need for a workout.

But where we are really confused is why children sent home for having Covid in Ontario will not be added to the numbers having Covid. Are they really keeping the numbers secret in Ontario? You can bet that Jason Kenney in Alberta will soon pick up on that idea. If you hide the numbers, who will worry about Covid?

But if they end up closing too many schools because there are no teachers left without Covid, the jig will be up. Maybe that is why premier Ford has waited until the teachers can have the better masks, so they might stay Covid free.

Franky, there are likely many Ontario residents who have no clue as to what is happening with Covid-19. It is not that they don’t care. They are the ones who have stopped reading newspapers because they are depressing. And TV news is not as funny as the Big Bang Theory. They get their news from social media along with the latest on the stars in Hollywood.

And we have to face the facts, the provincial premiers and their sidekicks and doctors are not as entertaining. They need to come up with better one-liners.

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Try Tyranny.

January 13, 2022January 12, 2022 by Peter Lowry

If Canada ever disassembles into its individual provinces, would you expect Quebec to be the first to opt for a dictatorship, or the last? In the province of Camillien Houde and Maurice Duplessi, it is a question. After all, it took Quebec 300 years to shake the shackles of the Roman Church.

This question arose as we were contemplating Quebec premier François Legault’s announcement the other day of what he calls “a health-care contribution.” It seems that he wants anti-vaxxers to pay a substantial fine if they catch Covid.

And you can stop laughing now. He’s serious. You might start to wonder though about smokers who get cancer or car drivers who get injured when travelling a few kilometres per hour over the posted speed limit. Is there any limit to these types of fines?

Wouldn’t it be better to just mandate that everyone gets vaccinated? We do that for other vaccinations. Your kids routinely get their shots. Objections based on religion or moral objections be damned. Who gives the anti-vaxxers the right to roam free and cause death and destruction in their wake? Either get your shots or get sent to the new version of a leper colony.

And you should be aware that Legault is not just horsing around. This is the same guy who defends his discrimination about religious symbols. He thinks it is okay to fire an employee of the province who dares to wear a cross or a turban or a yarmulka. So much for freedom of religion in Quebec!

It will soon be the same for anyone with the nerve to speak English in Quebec. Legault’s quasi-conservatives think it behooves them to protect the French language from any and all comers. It must annoy them that the language police in France do not seem to share all their concerns.

But after all, English-speaking Canadians have to listen to what Americans are doing with their language.

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Where is Boy Wonder?

January 12, 2022January 11, 2022 by Peter Lowry

He used to be Stephen Harper’s Boy Wonder but today he is supposedly guarding Gotham as sidekick to Ontario premier Doug Ford. His role is that of minister of education. He is probably taking a holiday from the criticism and condemnation he gets in that job. Maybe he took one of those Sunwing Airlines’ fun-filled one-way flights to Mexico. We have no idea.

Mr. Lecce seems to be missing in action at a time when Ontario parents would like to have a properly functioning education system teaching their children the Three-Rs. There is a need for two million children to be in school and there is very little being done about it.

A low-level person from Mr. Ford’s office issued a statement from him that schools would not re-open until January 17. At the same time someone from Mr. Lecce’s office informed the media that retired Ontario educators will be allowed more teaching days so that they can fill the gaps for teachers with Covid. We will not be told how many teachers or children have Covid from now on as no statistics from schools are being announced to the public. The exception will be when a school has to close.

But announcements from the minister of education’s office are not going to cut it when children are suffering under the confusion. And the parents, and, in some cases, the grandparents, are trying to pick up the slack for an education system that seems to be functioning on the whims of people who do not understand the system.

It seems that some communications experts are telling the politicians that they should not always take the direct blame for the problems. Maybe their advice is the same as when the federal conservatives were involved in an election and did not want to be seen with their provincial counterparts. They were probably told to hide.

And maybe Mr. Lecce is hiding. There is no excuse for someone who has no understanding or sympathy for the public school system to be in his position. It has been said that communications people seem to have big egos. Maybe that is Mr. Lecce’s problem.

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