Category: Provincial Politics

The Morning Line: Ontario’s dilemma.

by Peter Lowry

This is probably the most difficult Morning Line Babel-on-the-Bay has produced in ten years. It might just be the one that besmirches our reputation. The question in this election are the polls following the voters or are the voters following the polls?

But I am convinced that the pollsters are busy drinking their own bath water. They have no clue as to what is really happening in Ontario.

My only defence is  that a morning line is produced to provide a starting point for the totalizator that computes payouts for pari-mutuel betting at racetracks. It is the horses themselves that make a horse race.

Conservative Party: 1 to 1

I have always had this secret belief that Canadians had to be much smarter than Americans. They have to survive and thrive through our cold-cold winters. I was almost convinced of our superiority when the Americans (accidently) elected Donald Trump president. I was proud to say at the time, that Canadians would never do anything that dumb. Now, I am not so sure.

But I figure the voters of Ontario have three weeks left to come to their senses and keep a blow-hard, Trump wannabe like Doug Ford from becoming premier.

Liberal Party: 3 to 1

What really upsets me about this possible outcome is that I wrote over a year ago that Kathleen Wynne was the problem for the liberals. She did not have to prove it. Yet, much can happen over the next three weeks and if you want to bet anything on this election, you will be best to settle for even money.

Premier Wynne has one more chance to deliver the killing blow to Doug Ford in a debate format. She had better make the most of it. Now that Ford is out in the open and vulnerable to political challenge, his inexperience and bluster will show. She has to stop letting him set the agenda.

New Democratic Party: 9 to 1

This is Andrea Horwath’s third strike. The news media play up her long-shot status but nobody reasonable expects much from her and her team. The only thing she has going for her at the moment is that she is not as disliked as much as her opponents and might have to referee in a minority government situation. With the similarity between the NDP and liberal policies, she would have little problem in supporting the liberals. You have to figure that an NDP-conservative coalition would not last two weeks.

Summary

It might seem a bit rude to leave Mike Schreiner and his greens out of these figures but it is really out of respect for his feelings. You would not believe the odds against getting even one green party member elected at this time.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

Three-ring circus versus horse race.

by Peter Lowry

Whatever you want to say about the Ontario election that is going on now, it could never have been a three-ring circus production by P.T. Barnum or his partner James Bailey. The simplest explanation is that if you consider the performer who keeps multiple plates spinning atop long sticks, you realize that the act requires close concentration in the ring. You can hardly concentrate on your plates in ring two if the elephants in ring three decide to charge across and stomp the tigers in ring one. You are going to have a lot of smashed plates.

That is why in politics, the race track analogy is much better. It does not matter how many horses are in the race, there are only one or two favourites. Most times, you get just one winner. A racing form can tell you about the breeding, training, work outs, performance and the jockey.

The trouble is many a maverick considers politics an invitation to easy fame and fortune. There are also those who think they can buy their way. They use bluster instead of eloquence. They play fast and loose with the truth and the facts. They run on ego.

In the current situation in Ontario, there seems to be nothing achieved by pointing out how morally corrupt a person such as Doug Ford can be. His supporters know that. They do not care.

What they do not understand is that what they are doing is bear baiting. This has been illegal in Canada since before Canada was a country. They have turned the conservative dogs loose on the liberals for no reason more than they do not like progress. They despise the idea of a tax on carbon to protect the environment. They do not believe women can manage their own bodies. They do not understand what a fair minimum wage means. They consider the mess at Ontario Hydro as a liberal problem—yet it has taken all three parties and many years to really screw things up with Hydro.

But do not expect that pompous Mr. Ford to save you. His only instinct is self-aggrandizement. His experience with elected office is one term as a Toronto councillor where he spent his time trying to keep his brother, the mayor, sober and off crack cocaine. He is a braggart with an ego and a wannabe with no credentials. Four years would be far too long to tolerate him as premier of this key province of Canada.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

TV ads do not get the vote out.

by Peter Lowry

There is a fascination with political advertising. It seems to be more for their entertainment value than their efficacy. I just have yet to see an ad that would get a voter off the lounger and out to the polls to vote.

I think the best of the current batch of TV ads running is the liberal one that is titled “Real Doug Ford.” It is a classic attack ad that takes his stands and graphically denounces them. The ad makes good use of black and white and color to emphasize the messages. Does it work? Hard to tell. My impression is that many of the Doug Ford supporters are more interested in bashing Ms. Wynne than checking out Ford’s credentials.

The current TV ad that does not work for me is the conservative ad that gathers a lot of short clips from Doug Ford events. Maybe the message is subliminal. I think personally that it is too much like the Trump rallies in the U.S. where President Trump preens and reassures himself that these people at least love him. Whatever the message might be, it is lost in the fast cuts and confusion.

And, speaking of confusion, have you seen the NDP ad that features two ordinary-type people and red, blue and orange balls. They keep getting hit by the different balls and then the woman throws a basket with one of the orange balls. Maybe that is just too subtle for this old apparatchik.

I suspect that these ads will quickly become background to the campaign. I am a firm believer that in politics, the only effective campaign is the individual candidate’s ground game. This is the relentless and determined door knocking that can identify the individual candidate’s vote. Once identified, the candidate’s team knows who to make sure has voted on election day.

I am also convinced that candidate campaigns would be missing an important opportunity if all advance polling days were not treated the same as the final polling day. The relaxed rules make it vital to ensure as many of your identified voters as possible have voted. Never leave it until the last minute.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

 

The Opera ain’t over.

by Peter Lowry

First off today, we want to apologize. We have been thoroughly castigated by family and readers for being rude to Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath the other day. I sincerely apologize to her for my comments on her weight. That was inappropriate. At the same time, I stand by my comments on her outfit. She was definitely not respecting the viewers nor dressed to go to the same event as Mr. Ford and Ms. Wynne.

But after that disquieting kickoff of the campaign by CITY-TV, I had to go out and do more serious investigation of what is going on with the Ontario election.

One of my shorter excursions was to the local liberal campaign office where Premier Wynne was scheduled to stop by. It was not old home week. A friend drove and he had us at the campaign office a full 15 minutes before the scheduled event.

But this event was on liberal time and it was an hour and 20 minutes before Kathleen Wynne arrived. The event got full coverage from the television networks and print media. There were lots of serious young apparatchiks going around fussing and re-arranging during the wait. It gave me a chance to say ‘hi’ to some local liberals and to meet the liberal candidate. He seems like a bright and articulate young man. Readers in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte should get to know Jeff Kerk.

Premier Wynne was the star today and I was quite re-assured by her presentation. She was relaxed, personable, enthusiastic and warm—and why should she not be when talking to a friendly, enthusiastic group of liberals?

I think what this excursion reminded me of was some of the basic realities of this campaign. Whether I agree with all the changes in Ontario brought about by the Wynne government, it accomplished a great deal of good for us. This government has been instrumental in addressing environmental problems, it has introduced a liberalisation of alcohol sales in large grocery stores and we have fewer unemployed than we had during the previous 20 years. And only the mean-spirited would disagree with raising the minimum wage in Ontario to $15 per hour.

One of the ways, this government has helped create jobs is in the building of new hospitals, schools, transit ways, subways and highways. It did its job.

And why would we change to someone as inexperienced as Doug Ford? There is more of this campaign to come.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

Which half will vote?

by Peter Lowry

There is a supposition that following the low turnouts of voters in Ontario elections in 2011 and 2014, there will be a similar low turnout in June of 2018. The question that confounds politicians and pollsters is which half of the voters will come to the polls. And if you are waiting for the 18 to 24 age group to rise up and vote, we better find an issue to cause them to rise up.

You hardly need an issue for seniors. These people are the equalizers in any election. They feel it is their duty to vote. And they do. When you talk to them at their door or in seniors’ residences, they are mostly quite certain of the intention to vote and they have usually made up their minds earlier on how they will vote. The few of this group who are truly floaters between parties, take delight in confounding pollsters and political party workers. Usually, it comes down to which party is promising more for seniors.

(I will never forget the time I was taking a senior home after voting and she told me she had voted for the New Democratic Party candidate. I, politely as possible, asked her why she had called the liberal campaign office for a ride to vote? She explained, as we arrived at her house, that liberals are always on time, polite and drive nicer automobiles.)

While Babel-on-the-Bay’s Morning Line on the provincial election will be published next week, I can tell you now that what we are hearing across the province is disconcerting. There is a palpable anger and an “I don’t give a damn attitude” about this coming election.

The good news is that more and more, women are going to make the difference. Many of them have come to dislike Doug Ford. It is more of a lack of trust than anything else. They do not trust him on women’s rights and they are becoming convinced that he could not even run a household budget. They think he is too vague in what he is going to do for the province and these business efficiencies he is talking about sound like pie in the sky.

And as much as they are not sure they want Kathleen Wynne to continue as premier, they do not think she is a crook. They figure Doug Ford would be much more likely to fudge on his expense account. When it comes to competence, they are much more likely to trust Kathleen Wynne.

And these are the people more likely to vote.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

Prepping politicians.

by Peter Lowry

Whatever happened to the time-honoured prepping of politicians for Monday’s debate in Toronto? That opening debate was a disaster for all concerned. It is CITY-TV that should be embarrassed. The candidates’ handlers failed to convince their debaters of anything. And the moment is gone, never to be recovered.

It was amateur night at CITY-TV’s Toronto studios. I can remember when Moses Znaimer and his partner launched the casual style of CITY-TV back in 1972 but even that opening was more professional than Monday night. From the inept polling they were doing on social media, to the obviously partisan audience and the confusion of questioners, it was badly done.

Of special note was the moderator who seemed to just be an amused spectator. The event appeared to be taking place in a tiny studio, forcing the three debaters to stand practically shoulder to hairline. The smallest, Ontario premier Wynne, was overshadowed by much larger Doug Ford and the NDP’s Horwath on the other side was a blimp bookend.

And who dressed ‘Bubbles’ Horwath for the event? What could they have been thinking? I have been recommending a personal trainer and a diet for that woman for years. We might as well give up. No amount of haute couture could cover that much flesh. She can waste time going after Wynne if she wants but she needs to stop giggling in the process.

Wynne at least looked like a premier. She was using too premier-like language and was coming in second to the less articulate Ford. She has to talk on his level if she wants his followers to listen to her. She started out being too polite. In the first three-minute free-for-all, Horwath grabbed the lead and would have gone on automatic motor-mouth if Wynne had not finally taken it away from her. Later when Wynne had the impetus, she actually invited Ford to answer. He could not but was quite willing to take over the microphone.

While there might have been some time spent by Wynne’s team, there was no common theme emerging that the audience would remember and pass on to non-viewers. It hardly matters what is said in a debate such as this, it is what is memorable about the event.

And that is what was missed on Monday, there was nothing memorable—except that dreadful outfit on ‘Bubbles’ Horwath.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

Meet the Northern Mockingbird.

by Peter Lowry

While the Northern Mockingbird has a smaller head and a longer tail than others of its specie, it uses the same tricks as other mockingbirds. It can fool you by using the song styling of different birds and even a dog’s bark. It is like Ontario conservative leader Doug Ford who is trying to trumpet like Trump for the coming provincial election.

It is particularly interesting how candidate Ford tries to campaign as Donald Trump. He has already launched the fake news on his own amateurish news site on the Internet. He even runs television advertising that looks like Trump-style rallies in the United States. He likes the idea of only having to talk to supporters. They believe everything he says and they cheer him on.

Like Trump, he is running against a savvy politician. He solves the problem by just lying or exaggerating. Instead of accusing his opponent of just sending e-mails the wrong way, he claims his opponent has broken the bank in Ontario. He thinks the province needs a good dose of castor oil and cuts in spending so he can give his millionaire friends tax cuts.

With all his weeping and wailing about impoverished Ontario, Doug Ford is forced to admit that Kathleen Wynne has brought Ontario a long way back to prosperity in her one full term as premier. Despite the doom and gloom predictions over the higher minimum wage, employment is up in Ontario and Ontario is moving ahead. It can be absolutely amazing to hear someone who is making more money than ever before, railing against the Ontario liberals.

But the people that mockingbird Ford is mocking are the conservative party in Ontario. Like Trump, he shows little interest in party policies planned by party members. He does like the policy requests of people who give him donations to the campaign. This is like the builders who wanted to build on the Greenbelt area around Toronto. Nobody could understand what part of the word greenbelt Doug Ford could not comprehend. No doubt he will find others with deep pockets that will want to buy his support.

The other people that Doug Ford is mocking are the people in Ontario who think that it is time to try something different. The problem is that change for the better is good. Change to Doug Ford would be a disaster. Just think of all the good that Rob Ford did in Toronto with his brother’s help. Just think of all the good Donald Trump is doing in the U.S.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

Lesson for today: Silk purses, sows’ ears.

by Peter Lowry

Listen up children; Our lesson for today is that you still cannot make silk purses out of sows’ ears. Excellent examples of this aphorism are the conservative leaders in both Ontario and Alberta. Having observed both gentlemen over their time in Canadian politics, I can assure you that the description of them as sows’ ears is about as polite a description as possible.

Mind you, there is a distinct difference between them. Jason Kenney of Alberta is a highly experienced politician and you can expect every sleazy political manipulation in the book. Doug Ford in Ontario is a neophyte and he will keep on blundering his way through the Ontario election.

A case in point: the handling of abortion questions. Jason Kenney has developed strategies over the years to avoid dialogues that will expose his extreme ‘right to life’ position. He even had his entire opposition caucus walk out of the legislature recently rather than allow them to debate the distance protestors must stay from legal abortion clinics. He did not want his views exposed to the public.

But for Doug Ford, extremism on this issue is just another blunder. Here he was encouraging Tanya Granic Allen, whom he knew was an anti-abortion extremist, as the conservative candidate in Mississauga Centre. It was when the liberals exposed her extremist homophobic views that he finally had to dump her as a conservative candidate. Yet he welcomes her continuing involvement in the conservative campaign. He can be forced to correct his mistakes but never seems to learn from them.

What is interesting about their campaigns in their respective provinces is that they are both running hard against strong female premiers. Jason Kenney is counting on his united right wing to swamp the one-term New Democrats in Alberta. It is not as though Rachel Notley has not been working hard to sell Alberta’s tar sands production and fighting for the Trans Mountain pipeline. She is just not a conservative.

Doug Ford has even less to commend him. He actually seems afraid of premier Kathleen Wynne. In a debate in Toronto last night, Ford was wooden and awkward. He was out of his element. (More on the debate tomorrow.)

The only solution we can come to about both leaders is that they would be disasters for both provinces. There will obviously be a lot of assessment of that possibility over the coming weeks.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

Picking politicians.

by Peter Lowry

We now have our main candidates here in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte. No, nothing exciting. The local liberals had an acclamation. Only one candidate came forward. The conservatives appointed their candidate when Doug Ford got impatient. So much for democracy in the electoral district!

Ford appointed a loser. He is a former Orillia councillor who ran against Jill Dunlop for the Simcoe North nomination. Since he lost to Dunlop, Doug Ford appointed him to run in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte as a consolation prize. His name is Doug Downey and he tells people that he sees it as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity—to lose twice in the same election?

Downey is a lawyer and the go-to guy in Severn Township for the conservative party. He has held several political appointments in the Severn Township area.

Downey almost had a rerun of his contest with Jill Dunlop when former MPP Garfield Dunlop filed for nomination papers in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte. The senior Dunlop said his bid for the nomination was ignored by the party hierarchy because of his close relationship with former leader and former candidate Patrick Brown. Dunlop said his application was not turned down, it was just ignored.

Without Patrick Brown and a parachuted candidate from outside the electoral district, this will be a much tighter race than was expected this time around. While the rural townships of Springwater and the western half of Oro-Medonte are predominantly conservative, the north half of Barrie has been known to vote liberal. The final recount in the last federal election in the same area was a conservative win by just 86 votes. A better organized and better run liberal campaign in this election could make all the difference.

When the party headquarters sees an electoral district that is that close, they will make sure the leader’s tour makes several calls in the area. In addition, there will be extra attention given to requests from the local campaign.

Not having heard from the liberal candidate yet, I will reserve judgement.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]

On the street of broken hearts.

by Peter Lowry

There are questions we need to ask of candidates in the coming provincial election in Ontario. This is not to embarrass anyone. It is to challenge their thinking. It is about what they hope to do for those trapped on the margins of our society?

It is a simple question. Through no fault of their own, there are people who need our help in their day to day living. These people have a broad spectrum of needs. They might have Down Syndrome, intellectual disability or suffer from other limitations. Their needs range from living facilities such as the former Huronia facility in Orillia to group homes, to subsidized facilities and sheltered workshops. Their needs cover a wide range of services. They also need our help and compassion.

These people are currently being thrown on our streets. The sheltered workshops that used to provide many of them with some dignity and a little money have been shuttered and abandoned.

These fellow human beings need our understanding. Those with aging parents caring for them are just putting off the inevitable. Caring parents can no longer ask that a mentally-deficient daughter have her tubes tied.

Today, we are seeing more and more incompetent, pregnant and homeless young women on the streets. This is our society. Are we proud of it?

And as someone who has collected monies for many charities, we need to change our attitudes on charity. One of the problems is that men give mainly because they think they should. Women generally give because they care.

But charity cannot cope with all the problems. We need governments that care. And government is the sum of the individual members of the legislature. They have to be aware. They have to recognize that society has serious responsibilities. There is no magic wand to wave over the basic costs of being a caring and responsible government.

Politicians who rail against deficits and budgets are missing the point of government. Governance is caring for the needs of society. In Ontario, we spend the bulk of provincial funds on education and medical care. On top of that we have infrastructure, policing, the courts and services to our citizens.

Any politician promising to eliminate deficits and to provide tax cuts is usually a mindless ideologue with no concept of the responsibilities of office. These people have a hard time understanding the realities of the streets.

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Copyright 2018 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to  [email protected]