Babel-on-the-Bay
Babel-on-the-Bay is the personal website of Peter Lowry. It is a vehicle for political commentaries.
Babel-on-the-Bay

The Motivated Voter.

by Peter Lowry

If there is one voter who drives the pollsters and political parties crazy, it’s the motivated voter. This is the voter that will get to the polling station and vote at the first opportunity. They hardly need a phone call to remind them or a ride to the polls. They know why they are voting and it is usually against. In this particular election in Ontario, it is against that blowhard, Doug Ford.

And, as a pollster, if you don’t know why that particular voter is motivated, you are not doing the job. Someone who has an automated telephone system call you and just ask who you will be voting for is a jerk. Not only do children often answer the family telephone but even adults just press the most convenient button to get rid of the call. It is called interactive voice response (IVR). It is the cheapest form of polling—and probably the least reliable.

Let me ask you this: If you are a nurse working in a hospital in Ontario, who do you think you would be motivated to vote against? If you work in long-term care, who would you be motivated to vote against? If you are a public-school teacher in Ontario, who would you be motivated to vote against? I can think of a few more categories but I am sure you get the idea. And these are all Ontario voters motivated to vote against Doug Ford and the conservatives.

Mr. Ford and his conservatives have discouraged many voters. The problem for the pollsters is that most voters cannot identify opposition leader Andrea Horwath, let alone the will-o’-the-wisp liberal leader Steven Del Duca. And if you want to be sure of your vote against someone, you need to know who to vote for.

Personally, I would never vote for an NDP candidate in my riding. Andrea Horwath has led her party nowhere. I was trying to check on a problem in her Hamilton riding regarding one of the hospitals and was advised by her Queen’s Park office to call her riding office in downtown Hamilton. I tried that number and the person I was helping in Hamilton repeatedly called that number. It was always busy. It was busy to the point that you expect the staff is tired of answering for her. Those lines must be off the hook.

You should find out about the liberal candidate in your riding. We certainly need more liberals at Queen’s Park.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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Doug Ford, meet Mike Harris.

by Peter Lowry

It’s unusual for a premier, who wants to continue as premier, to criticize a former premier of the same political party. Not that Ontario premier Doug Ford gives a damn. Most Ontario voters who lived through conservative Mike Harris’ time as premier, twenty years ago, thought less of him when he left the premier’s office. One thing for sure about the current election, nobody will be inclined to erect statues honouring conservative Doug Ford either.

Mike Harris, for all his faults, left the Ontario premier’s office to later take over as chair of Chartwell Retirement Residences. These included long-term care residences that have been feeding ground for the Coronavirus COVID-19.

But that is not why Doug Ford criticized Mike Harris. The former premier did more that provide a feeding ground for the pandemic. He also sold Highway 407 across the top of Toronto that has become manna for the ownership consortium. Mr. Ford says he would not have done that.

Obviously to sell off 108 kilometres of controlled access highway on a 99-year lease for $3.1 billion—that is now worth about $30 billion—does not help make Mr. Harris seem very smart. Greedy yes. Smart no.

Mr. Ford made these remarks while congratulating himself for cancelling the provincial tolls on the short connecting roads of Highway 412 and 418. These are nickel and dime savings while leaving the tolls on the 43 kilometer provincially owned stretch of 407 from Pickering through to Highways 35/115.

Though it all seems to be in keeping with the nickel-dime election campaign that the Ford conservatives are currently running in Ontario. Not only can Ontario drivers save a nickel here and a dime there on road tolls but he is saying that if they just re-elect him, he will cut back five cents on the gasoline tax. Another nickel saved—as gasoline prices stretch for $2.00 a litre.

The only problem with all Mr. Ford’s promises is that he is saying that it can all be done with a little deficit financing. Mr. Ford has even got the right-wing Fraser Institute disappointed in him. If he continues as premier, the Fraser Institute believes he is likely to add another $100 billion to the province’s debt in the next five years.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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Voices From the Past.

by Peter Lowry

It was an acrimonious and irrelevant session for this year’s federal conservative leadership contest in Ottawa the other night. The event was part of the annual ‘Canada Strong and Free Networking Conference’ sponsored by the right-wing former Manning Institute. What was achieved was questionable.

The only contestant for the leadership remaining mostly unravaged by opponents was Brampton mayor Patrick Brown. He wasn’t there. He was on his usual quest for ethic group sign-ups for the conservative party. They have come up with a name for Brown’s leadership campaigning. They call it ‘diaspora manipulating politics.’ Only Pierre Poilievre took a swipe at Brown. Poilievre is an equal-opportunity swiper who complains about everybody else.

But in true blue conservative fashion, the remaining contestants spent their time defaming each other. They seemed locked in the past. They haggled about abortion. If it was not for the recent leak of a proposed reversal of the Roe versus Wade abortion ruling in the United States Supreme court, most would have ignored the question.

Of course, answering questions never is Poilievre’s strong suit. He is happier on the attack. He was particularly outraged by Jean Charest accusing him of supporting the truckers’ convoy to Ottawa. (Which he did.) He retorted “that truckers have more integrity in their pinky finger” than Charest’s entire “scandal-plagued (liberal) cabinet.”

Charest declared that his experience as premier of Quebec made him the best qualified of the candidates to keep the country unified. Judging from the crowd reaction to the entire proceedings, unity did not appear to be on the agenda.

The only person who was having a good time was social conservative Leslyn Lewis. The best hit of the hour and a half event was when Lewis accused Poilievre of supporting the truckers for a photo-op.

But, typical of Canada’s conservatives they remained mired mainly in the past. Nobody on the stage seemed to have any idea of what Canada might be.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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Del Duca Emerges.

by Peter Lowry

Met liberal leader Steven Del Duca the other day. He was not what I expected. He turns out to be a modest man in a rough and tumble business. I now understand the commercials that the liberals are running with him speaking quietly about family. I think he will be an unusual premier but exactly the type of person we desperately need to speak for the province of Ontario.

The contrast to Doug Ford is stark. Ford is a blowhard label salesman who forces himself forward. Del Duca stands back a bit.

Del Duca was dressed as any urbanite on his way to his summer cottage. In Jeans and open necked shirt, he comes across as “every man.” Instead of a huge bus, he is be travelling Ontario in a more modest van. And he seems to know that only lawyers (he is one) and undertakers wear a tie north of Highway 7.

We met in Barrie. Our Barrie mayor, and our local liberal candidate, Jeff Lehman, introduced me. I only asked Del Duca one question. I wanted to know what he thought about the short election time of which the Ford conservatives are taking advantage.

Del Duca seemed to think about the question, so Jeff jumped in to agree that there were only 15 days between the Writ of Election being published and the polls opening for the voters. Since I had run the ground game for Lehman’s campaign 12 years ago, when he first became mayor, he easily understood my question.

Of course, Lehman is lucky. He and his team have been out canvassing for the past month and have been getting a good reception from the voters. Del Duca is obviously counting on Lehman as part of the liberal team to be elected to the legislature in this election. He needs Jeff’s experience as chair of the large municipalities in Ontario. And as a Barrie MPP, Lehman’s experience teaching at the London School of Economics and in providing advice to governments across Canada provides him with a solid base for a senior role in the rebuilt liberal caucus in the Ontario government.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

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Now for the Nasty Stuff.

by Peter Lowry

The election in Ontario might be the shortest in the history of the province, but it certainly won’t be the most courteous. How could it be? The voters are frustrated with the pandemic and angry. The politicians are confused. And the news media are misleading us. Nobody is being polite or honest. And if the party leaders show up for the debates, they should be searched for weapons.

Even in a blog about politics, there is no point in being overly polite. Who would bother to read something serious and respectful? I would be accused of making fun of my readers.

I got the first piece of campaign literature from the conservatives via Canada Post the other day. It was just a card. It was the conservative idea of an attack advertisement. It was red on one side and blue on the other. The red side included a nice picture of liberal leader Steven Del Duca and former leader Kathleen Wynne. The two leaders were laughing and smiling. Maybe the person who put the ad together thought the picture would remind voters of how Wynne quit before the campaign was over last time. The copy went on to mention some specious complaints about what Ms. Wynne did as premier.

The blue side of the card featured a picture of a blue Doug Ford and his campaign slogan. It reads: “Doug Ford Get It Done.” I am not sure if that is an admonition for him to do something or just what.

What is amusing about the conservative claims is what they say they are doing. With the highest inflation in almost a hundred years, they say they are keeping costs down and rebuilding Ontario’s economy. They say they are working for workers but their proposed budget last week gives tax credits to the rich. They claim they are building infrastructure with a highway 413 that we do not need. And they plan to stay open as the pandemic crushes our hospital staffs.

I figure that the quality of literature in this election will just go down from that sort of beginning. The only news is that obviously the conservatives know that their main opponents are the liberals.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

The ‘Don’t Care’ Politicos.

by Peter Lowry

It’s election time in Ontario. And nobody cares about the environment. Oh sure, what’s his name, the green party guy is expected to complain a lot but even his seat in the legislature isn’t guaranteed. Did you hear that one of Doug Ford’s goodies, promised last week, was a nickel off the provincial gas tax? Wow, the price is reaching $2 a litre and Ford wants us to vote for him for five cents.

The only environmental agreement between the opposition parties is that they will all put an end to Ford’s highway 413. They seem to agree that the highway is a threat to the environment and hardly needed. To lose all that good farm land and wetlands makes little sense—for a highway that is going no where.

And don’t bet on the federal government to save our world. The Trudeau government is still pouring billions into twinning that damn pipeline across the Rockies to carry Alberta tar sands bitumen to the Burrard Inlet for overseas shipment. And all this time, they have been pushing their environmental plans for 2030 and, I guess, keeping that pipeline secret from Mr. Trudeau’s environment minister Steven Guilbault.

Minister Guilbault is supposed to be some sort of climate activist. That seems like a lonely position these days as the federal conservatives keep coming on strong with no climate solutions in that party’s future. There are two greenies in Canada’s parliament. They do not seem to be doing any persuading.

Even Quebec is having an election this year and the ruling Coalition Avenir Québec is mainly ignoring the environment. The opposition in that province is scattered over a number of parties with slim hopes. The last time I checked, it looked like the Parti Québécois had the best environmental plan. And that party is certainly not going anywhere.

With everyone worrying if the conflict in Ukraine is going to lead to a world war, climate change has taken a back seat. Yet, every day we are hearing about climate change and extremes of weather. Mother Nature might not wait until we humans get involved in saving our planet.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Ford’s 15-Day Election.

by Peter Lowry

It’s election time in Ontario and it is the shortest election in the province’s history. It will be just 15 days after the election is called that the voting starts. Despite the election act that calls for 28 days of dueling promises, Mr. Ford has convinced Ontario’s chief election officer to have 10 days of voting in addition to the final voting and counting day on June 2.

These additional days of voting used to be called advance polls. They were for those going on vacation or for some other reason were to going to be unable to vote on election day. Now they are just additional days on which you can vote.

But what is a convenience for the voters is a problem for political parties. It limits their canvassing days. Much of the effort the party workers put into knocking on doors and getting out literature now has to be redirected much earlier than before to getting out the vote. There are now 11 days out of 28, legally allowed for the election, that have to be devoted to helping voters to get to the polls. (There are also four days between the ten days of voting and the final voting day on June 2.)

The question you might ask is who benefits from fewer days for the election? Obviously, it will be the conservatives under Doug Ford who will benefit. Any wannabe autocrat will tell you that the fewer days that their opponents have to campaign against them, the better. There is also the fact that the conservatives have more financing and workers than the other parties.

And if you had been wondering why premier Ford has been going all over the province, at our expense, making announcements of public money for this project or that project, was because of the abbreviated election that was coming.  Ford even dishonoured his own commitment to having the provincial budget by the end of March each year to the week before the election so that he could promise more nickels and dimes to lure unsuspecting voters.

And don’t you love the way Mr. Ford keeps the taxes down. He just creates a lot more debt for us.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

The Needed and the Needy.

by Peter Lowry

A friend sent me an ad for a Brit t-shirt company known for their political opinions that certainly sums up the Ford administration in Ontario. They cost almost as much to ship to Canada as the pence they cost so I will just tell you what one of the T-shirts said about the motto of the Brit conservative party:

“We’ve lied to you before.

“We’re lying to you now.

“We’ll lie to you again.

“We’re nothing if not consistent.”

Now, if that doesn’t ring true for the conservatives at Queens’ Park in Toronto, you have not been paying attention over the past four years.

I mention this because I am going to have lots of time to study this election. The liberal candidate in my riding is the mayor of Barrie. I helped him get elected mayor 12 years ago. He probably thinks I’m too old to help in this campaign. I hear that he and his canvas teams have been out knocking on doors in the riding for the past month and getting a good reception.

With his name recognition and the disappearing act over the past four years of the carpet bagger Ford appointed to run here last time, there is little conjecture on the outcome. This riding will be a liberal win from the conservatives.

And that is the way this election needs to go. It is a riding-by-riding battle. Just assume there are no leaders. Ford is a blowhard and incompetent. Horwath of the NDP is a nebbish as leader of the opposition who did little to curb Ford over the past four years. And I have absolutely no idea how good a leader Del Duca might be for the liberals. Wherever he has been since chosen leader, we have heard little that sounds liberal and little leadership.

What you need to do is ignore the leaders of the parties and vote for the best candidate in your electoral district. It means you need to listen if a canvasser comes to your door. You need to read that literature they hand you. You have the responsibility in this election to elect the best candidate. And I don’t care if one of those candidates is your bother-in-law. It is a secret ballot.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

For Ford’s Friends.

by Peter Lowry

It was an unusual budget day last Thursday in Ontario. It was a day to hear about the election for those with money inside the legislature while the poor paraded outside. 

And Mr. Ford never flinched. Did you notice that much of the offered goodies of his budget benevolence were in the form of tax credits? It means you need to first spend money, to get money. Tax credits only come to those who have already spent their money. And don’t forget, you have to keep records; you have to keep receipts.

‘There you go seniors,’ Mr. Ford says, ‘Spend and your heirs will be rewarded.’

Meanwhile the pitiful poor, the sick, the disabled and the mentally challenged of Ontario, are trying to live and eat on less than $1200 per month. The Ford government drives them to begging, stealing and sleeping on the streets.

Don’t forget the billions, Mr. Ford needs to build highway 413 for his friends. And forget the environment. Mr. Ford will save you a nickel on every liter of gas, at close to $2, that you pump.

Not that you should worry. Mr. Ford’s deficit will only be $20 billion. Are you sure that is a conservative budget? Our children’s children could still be paying for that in the distant future. God forbid that the damn conservatives would try to help the poor, the hungry and the needy.

Doug Ford thinks of himself as a benevolent dictator. He promises you a buck-a-beer and never delivers. Electing this guy, the first time, was an accident. Re-electing him would be downright stupid.

Ford’s promises and performance during the worst of the pandemic were erratic and confusing. He has left Ontario with exhausted and angry hospital staffs and frustrated teachers. He ignored the problems caused by the convoy in Ottawa in February. He told Ontario residents not to go to their cottages and went himself. He thinks the problems of COVID-19 are over because he wants to campaign for re-election. We should make election day, June 2, a day of mourning for all those who died during the pandemic. We should put the blame for many of those deaths where they belong.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]

Mayday, Mayday.

by Peter Lowry

It’s election time in Ontario. And the voters are desperate. They need help. The Ford conservatives have been campaigning for months. The hapless new democrats came up with a bunch of promises last week and we are only starting to hear murmurs from the liberals. The problem is that Mr. Ford seems to be the only one itching for an election.

But any election is a siren song to me. Since Joe Noseworthy won back my riding of York South for the CCF in 1949, I have been fascinated with the election process. And, for the most of the last 70 years, I have been lending my expertise to the liberal party.

One of the less advertised and more difficult tasks I did was working with polls and pollsters. I mention this as I read the other day where the Toronto Star is going to publish a poll aggregation called the Signal during the provincial campaign. The Star calls it an ‘election predictor.’ It is run by a political science professor. If there is any advice I could give to the neophyte owners of the Toronto Star is that the odds of getting anything right in polling are about as good as the odds of players winning at the Star owners’ new Internet casino.

You always have to remember that results of a poll are a somewhat clouded version of the past. They cannot predict the future.

And what really causes problems with political polls is that people tell lies. They tell you they are going to vote and then they don’t. As many as 35 per cent of the voters in a given riding will fail to vote.

And those who do vote can change their mind. As late as when standing behind that little screen, ballot in hand and pencil at the ready, people will have second thoughts.

I have often thought that universities might have dropped political science at the same time as they threw out the alchemists. I have always appreciated that political science grads know the difference between a liberal and a libertarian but poli-sci is not a course in sociology. They study how people vote but never seem to understand why.

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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry

Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to:

[email protected]