It is finally likely that Barrie mayor Jeff Lehman will make the move. After being elected to three four-year terms as mayor, he is checking out the federal waters. The first hint of this was a while ago when Jeff’s old campaign manager, Quito Maggi of Mainstreet Research did a survey in Barrie-Springfield-Oro-Medonte electoral district.
Personally, I would not waste the money on that type of survey, at this stage, but I am sure it showed that it would be a tight race between the mayor and the former city councillor who is currently the sitting conservative member. The Tory has been a yawn as a member of parliament but the riding was gerrymandered to accommodate the strongly conservative rural vote.
Based on the mayor’s strengths in voter recognition and his service to Barrie, he is shoo-in with the urban part of the electoral district. Plus, he is a very good door-to-door campaigner.
But he has to get enough votes from the rural area to carry him to the finish line. Much will depend on the liberal positioning on gun control (a hot button with rural voters) and the handling of the environmental issues.
By the way, I always lie to those “press one for Joe” surveys. If Quito saw my name on his survey, he would know not to count my choice.
It is obvious that Lehman is waiting until after the budget speech next week before making his announcement. The one thing that he does not need to worry about is competition for the nomination. I really doubt that there would be any problem getting approval for his candidacy from either Ottawa or the riding.
I wish him the best of luck.
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