It looks like there will be a lot of arguments in the days ahead about how Canada elects its politicians. When you are electing 338 individual members of parliament across a country as large as large as ours, a tie for first place has to be an extremely rare event. Luckily, we are not running a bookmaker operation. Nor are we accepting any bets on the coming election.
But, at this time, I cannot tell you who is going to win. Nor can I foretell what might happen if there are just a few seats difference between the top two parties. It might even involve other parties making the decision of whom they might support. This is why I have always been so interested in politics: there are so many factors at play.
This is one of those times when the political parties are really challenged to get out their vote! There are too many electoral districts with close races.
Despite the slight edge in manning polls and getting out the vote that goes to the conservatives, Maxime Bernier might have carved out too large a niche of conservative voters for his peoples’ party.
And despite all the pollsters who have claimed that the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is “poised” to increase the NDP vote, it will be a surprise if he does not bottom out at about 18 per cent of the popular vote. At that vote, there could be a few serious losses for the party. Those losses could help the liberals.
On September 20, I intend to stay up until we have the picture on Quebec. The liberals really have to trash the Bloc Québécois to make sure of at least a minority government again. They have already given up on too many electoral districts in Ontario.
The further west you go, the worse the news for Justin Trudeau.
These are now the odds that you should be able to get from your favourite bookie: (There was some confusion about the payoffs in the first version, so I have made these easier to understand. No vigorish or taxes are included. )
Liberal Majority Government – 7 to 3 (a $3 bet pays $10)
Liberal Minority Government – Even Money (a $1 bet pays $2)
Conservative Majority — 5 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $6)
Conservative Minority — Even Money (a $1 bet pays $2)
NDP Majority — 30 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $31)
NDP Minority — 20 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $21)
Green Minority — 50 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $51)
Bloc Québécois Minority — 100 to 1 (a $1 bet pays $101)
People’s Party — Don’t waste your money.
Best you save your money and vote for the candidate in your riding whom you trust to represent you.
Copyright 2021 © Peter Lowry
Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to: