Canadians should be very concerned about talk of a divided America. There is nothing friendly about dividing up a country. The antipathy and rancor exist long after the deed is done. Americans tend to forget, that the American Civil War killed more Americans than any other conflict in which the country has been involved. And to try to divide America along the current red and blue state lines is ridiculous.
There is no north-south division to be made these days. And America would not exist as a bunch of banana republics either. California, New York and Texas could be viable countries by themselves, despite some ongoing ruction between cities and rural areas. While the blue states on the east and west coasts would do nicely, thank you, there is a lot of red state territory in between. In fact, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin would survive the breakup best by asking to join with friendly Canada.
But Canada would hardly benefit immediately from the American states having a falling out. You could kiss the free trade agreement goodbye with the red states. Even with a Trump-type dictatorship, trade agreements would be extremely difficult to arrange.
The long-term benefit to Canada could be in the dramatic migration of population around North America. The stability of Canada would attract an educated flow of immigrants with valuable skills.
The response to a fractured America would also give rise to the aspirations of world trading blocks. The Chinese, for example, would want to strengthen their trade position with South Asia. The Russians would be even less charming as they tried to return to their former dominance of Eastern Europe. The Middle East, Africa and South America would find they now have new friends. And I, for one, can see the Brits begging to get back into the European Union.
No doubt many scholarly tomes will be written about the possibilities of a shattered America. Let us hope it does not happen and we have time left to save our planet.
Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry
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