Patrick Brown is in the race for the conservative party’s federal leadership. He told the media and some supporters the other day that he is going to restore the credibility and connections of the conservative party with a broader swath of Canadians. You can expect that broader swath to be mostly from the South Asian diaspora in Canada.
That was how Brown won the Ontario conservative leadership. It was the same immigrant group who won the national new democratic party leadership for Jagmeet Singh. Nobody has explained to these new Canadians that you should not be a member of two different political parties. Yet, if the organizers for candidates are willing to pay your membership fee for you, why not?
Brown’s most serious problem is the early cut off of memberships by the conservative party. It is only two and a half months to the June 4 cut off. Even starting with those he signed up in Ontario in 2015 and the concentration of votes in Brampton, he is unlikely to have much more than 100,000 new voters by the cut off. That is about half of the expected new sign-ups. The conservatives will again be bragging about the largest membership of any party in Canada if the total exceeds 400,000.
Brown is a hands-on organizer. He does not rely on others to do that job. He knows how the game is played and he works hard. I would expect him to come third in the present field of candidates. He will likely follow Charest and Poilievre. Jean Charest will be the guy promoting the middle of the road route to a conservative government. Poilievre will appeal to the hard right and the fiscal conservatives in the party.
I really think Brown has to target the conservative caucus. He understands them and knows what buttons to push. They will be the ones that the rank and file in the ridings turn to for advice on second and third votes. He needs the second and third votes from losers such as Lewis and Baber.
It seems to this observer that in the race with the current candidates, Brown can only be the king-maker for Charest. That would give him an assured appointment in a Charest conservative government. We can only hope he does not come back to Barrie to run in the next federal election.
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Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry
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