It is being called ‘The Chill on the Hill.’ It’s the assumption that MP Pierre Poilievre is going to win the brass ring on the merry-go-round of the conservative leadership. It has not happened yet. We will not know the answer until September 10 when the results are announced.
And there will certainly not be a bolt from the heavens announcing Poilievre’s ascension. And if 90 per cent of his support comes from Alberta, there might not be an ascension. You have to bear in mind that the conservatives use a very convoluted way of counting ballots. If all 2000 party members in one electoral district vote for one candidate, it goes into the tally as 100 votes. There are probably some electoral districts with less than 100 members and they will take the eventual vote count to less than 33,800. As you can see, in conservative thinking, it is the electoral districts that decide, not the individual members of the party.
With upwards of maybe a half-million votes to count for 338 electoral districts, you need the conservative party’s computer people to tell you the result. You have to win the most votes from the most electoral districts to win this race.
The only two possible winners are former Quebec premier Jean Charest and MP Pierre Poilievre. Before this race got underway, there were about 250,000 paid-up conservatives in the party across Canada. Pierre Poilievre claims to have added some 350,000 names to that and Patrick Brown contributed more than 100,000 before leaving the race.
While logic tells you that Pierre Poilievre is sitting in the cat-bird seat, you are assuming that his temporary sign-ups are as motivated to vote as long-time conservatives. If for example, his numbers from the truckers’ convoy drop as much as 40 per cent, he would have trouble winning. While Brown’s temporary sign-ups are being asked to vote for Jean Charest rather than Brown, it is also hard to say how many will go along.
The conservatives could have a situation on the first count of 40 to 48 per cent for Charest and 40 to 48 per cent for Poilievre. That could leave the final decision to Leslyn Lewis’ second choice votes. Who do you think social conservatives would pick?
Copyright 2022 © Peter Lowry
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