It has always amused me that the news media, depending on their leanings, are always reporting what labour groups are supporting what parties or candidates in elections. The assumption that the labour movement only supported the CCF and then the NDP always was fiction. The only way the labour vote helped conservative Doug Ford in the last Ontario election was by staying home and not voting.
But in the June vote for a Toronto mayor, it will be the post-election analysis of some polls in certain electoral districts that will provide the answers. I have found over the years that there is no certain point in an election that people on the cusp make a decision or decide not to make a decision. I see it as a drift. It is the 30 to 40 per cent of voters who are not committed to this or that party or candidate, who hold the answers. Many of them just go with the flow. Some lose interest and fail to vote. And then there are others striking out to seek change. It was usually at the door where you can catch it. It was always the campaign manager who did not get out and canvas some doors during the campaign, or who did not know how to debrief their canvassers, who did not see it coming.
Hoped for union support, as well as seeking public approbation, was very much in evidence at the recent announcement in St. Thomas, Ontario. The proposed Volkswagen battery plant could have a major impact on the economy of south-western Ontario and both premier Doug Ford and prime minister Justin Trudeau came to have the TV publicity lights shine down upon them.
Meanwhile, back in Ottawa, Canada’s largest government union, the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) is striking across Canada for a little more meat on the dinner table. And Mr. Trudeau did not seem worried.
I haven’t done my analysis yet for my morning line but I expect NDP candidate, Olivia Chow will be among the top four or five contenders. She finished third in 2014 behind John Tory and Doug Ford. She could take another step back this time.
My sense of the Toronto by-election, at this time, is that this will be a younger persons’ game. There is an interesting dichotomy developing between the younger generation in the suburbs and the younger people in the downtown condos. I think this is their election. Prepare to be surprised.
Copyright 2023 © Peter Lowry
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