With the wet arrival of 2011 here in Babel, we are launched into another ten-month long election campaign. Last year it was the turn of the municipalities. This year, it is the turn of the province. The provincial government did this to itself. The government made it law that there will be municipal elections every four years and—on a subsequent year—there will be a provincial election every four years.
This will make the second time Ontario has gone to the polls on a fixed schedule since the new election act was passed in 2005. The first time was a walk in the park for McGinty’s Liberals. Despite some confusion caused by the ill-advised referendum on how voters elect members of the legislature, McGinty was given an easy four-year renewal on his mandate.
It will not be as easy this time. And the length of time building up to the election will be a major part of the problem.
We have seen it in the two year build up to American presidential elections and we witnessed it last year in the municipal elections in Ontario, there are many shifts in positioning over an overly long election period. Newer, younger candidates have an opportunity to become known while older, more experienced candidates have time for test skirmishes and feints at their opponents’ supposed weaknesses.
In the last provincial election, Provincial Conservative Leader John Tory shot himself in the foot early in the campaign when he proposed extended funding to Ontario’s faith-based schools. This gave the Provincial Liberals a chance to revamp their lame run-on-our-record campaign into something fresher to take advantage of the Conservative Leader’s error in political judgement.
In the Babel last year, we saw a relative newcomer start the long campaign for mayor with a potential base vote estimated at just 12 per cent or less. Throughout the hottest summer on record, he and his team doggedly drove hard at raising his profile around the city. In a campaign effort never seen before in Babel, he won in late October with 42 per cent of the mayoralty vote in a field of eight candidates.
Out of a larger field in Toronto, Rob Ford emerged over the summer as unbeatable. Nothing his opponents could do, could shake loose the reality of his coming victory.
It is far too early to tell what way Ontario will go this year. One of the factors that will weigh heavily is the strong possibility of a federal election early in the year. If Michael Ignatieff’s federal Liberals can topple Harper’s government, it will be safe to assume the voters will be more open to dumping McGinty’s government in Ontario.
Who would replace McGinty is the question? The Liberals will make it very clear that Tim Hudak of the Conservatives is just a callow version of Mike Harris. How they intend to attack Andrea Horwath, leader of the NDP, is a good question. She stands ready to benefit the most from the length of the campaign and can make the best advantage of the phony campaign throughout the summer. She has registered no persona yet with the voters and they will be surprised to find that she has more substance than McGinty and is less of a pit bull than Hudak.
There will be much more to say on this subject as the campaigns get underway.
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