The chattering classes, the talking heads, the bloggers of note and the political pundits have all decided that Canada is going to have an election. Who can argue? The truth is that MP Dan McTeague told me the date of the election over a beer, more than a month ago. And as sure as the price of gas at the pump will rise tonight, Dan has proved himself a reliable forecaster.
And that is the good news. Canada needs this election. Prime Minister Harper certainly wants it. His only concern is to not look too eager and to manoeuvre the opposition into pulling the plug. Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff is ready to do his part in ranting and roaring and demanding the election. It is an opportunity for Jack Layton. It is if he could just understand the opportunity. His caucus is the problem as they just see lost seats no matter what way Layton turns. Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc can only lose in this election as both Conservatives and Liberals target specific seats in Quebec.
The bad news is that it is Stephen Harper’s last chance to win a majority. He will leave no rock unthrown in his determination to remake Canada as the extreme right wing country he believes it should be. His Canada is a cold and bitter place of Old Testament judgement and survival of the fittest.
And this election is Michael Ignatieff’s only chance. He needs the ‘Hail Mary’ play in this one because he has just the one chance to prove that he can lead the Liberals and the country. He used the first eight of his lives as leader in two years of marking time, unable to retaliate against those attacking him from the rear. In this election, he goes for broke! Not winning a majority, under the circumstances, can be forgiven. Not winning the government cannot be countenanced.
It should be Jack Layton’s last election as leader of the New Democrats. It is not that he has been ineffective as leader of the NDP. He just never proved there should be an NDP. His party needs to join the socially conscious left wing of the Liberal Party. With the Liberals, he can help form the concerted centre-left force needed to block the right wing viciousness of Stephen Harper.
And that leaves Gilles Duceppe, a leader with no future. Separatism in Quebec is a failed ideology. It is just not a winning proposition. Quebec can ill afford to continue to let the world pass it by while it drowns itself in the jingoism and tribalism of a language ghetto. It will soon celebrate fifty years of separatist foolishness when it so desperately needs leadership to build partnerships and a strong future in a united and equal Canada.
This will be a watershed election. Canada will not be the same afterward. Hopefully, Stephen Harper will be gone from the Conservative Party and the extremism of its right muted. The NDP will see the renewed strength of its future as part of a more socially conscious Liberal Party. The Liberals, with their new allies, will have settled the leadership question for the near future.
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