The October 6 provincial election might be recorded as the most boring and predictable election in Ontario history. To-date, there is really nothing interesting to write about. Premier Dalton McGuinty is doing much better than expected. Challenger Tim Hudak, the Conservative leader, is stumbling and fumbling and looking less like any kind of leader every day. The NDP’s secret weapon, Andrea Horwath, is remaining a secret.
There was a clip on the TV news the other day of Premier Dalton McGuinty looking human. Somebody brought a dog onto where he was doing the daily stand-up scene and he made a comment about dogs and politicians. Believe it or not, he laughed. He made a comment that came across as honest and relaxed. It was the first time voters have seen him not looking like he has a broom up his rear. The Liberals should take the campaign away from the broom-up-their-rear people who have been running McGuinty’s campaign and just run the clip with the dog as a commercial for the rest of the campaign. That would be an easy win.
At the same time ‘Tiny Tim’ Hudak is taking Ontario’s Tories down a slippery slope. His campaign has lost focus. For a guy who stayed so on-script for the previous seven months, it is hard to explain what has happened to him. His first critical error was to bite on the Liberal’s tax credit for helping new Canadians gain some work experience. Calling new Canadians ‘foreigners’ is a foolish thing to do when you are trying to win the new Canadian vote. And then he became mired in technology that he did not understand. He has no comprehension of the problems related to Global Positioning Systems and computer monitoring but he is touting a provincial monitoring system for sex offenders that would make the problems and costs of eHealth look like small change.
We hear the NDP are rushing out a 30-second commercial that tries to humanize a very human lady. That will further confuse the message. As things stand, the NDP brain trust has left a trail of confused voters across the province and some of them had wanted to vote NDP.
What both the Conservatives and NDP have forgotten is that it is not the people who normally vote for your party who you need to win. You have to win among the truly undecided. It would help if you even win some of your opponents’ supporters. They need a reason to vote for you. And attack ads are dangerous when there are more than two parties.
It should always be remembered that in May 2008, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives had spend millions trashing Liberal Michael Ignatieff. In the election, the Conservatives increased their vote by two per cent of Canadian voters. The NDP spent that campaign on a positive note promoting their leader Jack Layton. The NDP improved their vote by better than 12 per cent.
But politicians are the last to change.
-30-
Copyright 2011 © Peter Lowry
Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]