If you look at the positions of the three principal parties in the Ontario Legislature as an interminable game of Go, you would recognize that only New Democrat Leader Andrea Horwath improved in Thursday’s by-elections. While her position is not tenable in the long term, she has manoeuvred into a better bargaining position with the Liberals. Premier Kathleen Wynne is probably going around asking people what she should do but nobody has the experience with the way she has things fouled. Yet, it is Ontario Conservative Leader Timmy Hudak who is toast.
Tiny Tim was clearly rejected by the voters in the four key urban centres where the by-elections were held. He cannot even claim the win in Toronto’s Etobicoke-Lakeshore as that was Rob Ford’s win, not Timmy’s. Deputy Mayor Doug Holyday ran as Ford’s guy, not Hudak’s. All the emphasis was on city politics in the campaign for that electoral district, not provincial. Timmy needed to break the McGuinty hold on Ottawa South and failed. He needed to win over the voters in London West. He failed. You can expect to see a new Ontario Conservative leader next year.
As much as Wynne must be wondering about her position, Horwath is the one most desperate for strategic direction. And since she need not take the blame for the choice of Adam Giambrone to represent the New Democrats in Scarborough-Guildwood, she came out the winner across the board. If she and her caucus could find a way to force an election before the Tories replace Tiny Tim as leader, she is in a position to win all the marbles. At the very least, she is in a position to dictate terms to the Liberals.
Wynne won nothing on Thursday. It was the ghost of Dalton McGuinty who won in Ottawa South. And it was Liberal tradition and the ideal candidate that carried Scarborough-Guildwood. Kathleen Wynne was side-lined from the day she so ill-advisedly called the five by-elections. Her impact was minimal.
Wynne has a couple of months at best to come up with a platform for Ontario. She has to prorogue the Legislature and come in with a new Throne Speech. And it has to be a barn-burner. It has to forget the fiscally-responsible B.S. and lay out a plan that makes sense to the voters of Ontario. It has to be full of education and jobs for our youth and better care for our seniors. She should talk to people with ideas.
Horwath is in a different mode. She has to learn to play hardball with Wynne. She has to better understand her job.
And Timmy Hudak needs to brush up his résumé.
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Copyright 2013 © Peter Lowry
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