It is the week before election day in the federal riding of Toronto-Centre and it is when the campaigns go into the transition for election day. And no matter what your pollsters tell you, it all comes down to getting out your vote. Intentions are worthless unless you get them on ballots.
And the people who have lied to canvassers from multiple parties had better barricade their doors. The campaign organizations you said you will favour have you on their list. They will not be satisfied until you get out and vote.
If there is one thing that a long-time politico can add to the hubbub, do not trust the polls. Polls are nothing more than an indication of possible. They are neither sacrosanct nor honest. The interactive voice response calls on landlines in an electoral district such as Toronto-Centre are nothing more than an interesting guess. What you have to evaluate are the competing organizations.
There are only two candidates in this Toronto race. They are Chrystia Freeland, Liberal and Linda McQuaig, New Democrat. The others are irrelevant. Both the Liberal and New Democrat camps in Toronto will be turning out more workers on election day than they can use. The new Democrat workers will be more experienced and the Liberals will be younger and more energetic.
If the central organizations do the job right there will be nobody in those offices on election day other than a few people to answer telephones. Toronto Centre needs a minimum of ten district operations geared to different communities. It would be faster covering those communities by skateboard or bicycle if it is just decent weather. And it is not as much the 100 people you get to the polls early in the day that count but those last one or two stragglers just before the polls close.
We expect that Chrystia Freeland will be the winner in Toronto. She will attract the broad range of voters from the top to the bottom of the riding. She has the not so secret weapon, Justin Trudeau, working for her. Linda McQuaig might have done better without Tom Mulcair. Both candidates are outstanding. Either can make a significant contribution in parliament for us.
Liberals need to remember on November 25 that Toronto-Centre and Bourassa ridings are essential. We also need to win at least one of the two Manitoba ridings that are up for grabs. If Justin Trudeau and his team can win all four of the by-elections, Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair and their teams will be scrambling to rethink what they have to do over the next two years.
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Copyright 2013 © Peter Lowry
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