Today, February 13 is hard lesson day for Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne. Despite the reasonably good turnout at advance polls, there is no rationale for neophyte Premier Wynne to anticipate anything good from her ill-timed, ill-considered by-elections.
She can probably write off the previously Liberal electoral district of Niagara Falls. Former MPP Kim Craitor is too much of a Liberal and a gentleman to comment on his decision to retire. Yet his timing speaks volumes. There are only two votes the new Liberal candidate can count on in Niagara Falls. They are hers and the last Liberal act from Craitor. What the Liberal candidate might have going for her is that Ontario Conservative Leader Tim Hudak lives in the riding and to know him is not exactly a reason to vote for him or his candidate. We would not be surprised to see a very strong showing from the New Democrat in this riding.
But we are hardly going to sit here in Babel and pretend to know the mood of the voters down on the Niagara Peninsula. It is much easier to read the voter mood in a general election. In a by-election too many local issues come into play and that can override good political instincts. That means we place no bets on the outcome in Niagara Falls.
But Thornhill is a different matter. Before moving to Babel almost ten years ago, we lived in Thornhill. It is a very attractive part of the Greater Toronto Area and a fine place to live. The area is a long way from a childhood in downtown Toronto. It has a mix of relatively well off and industrious people from many backgrounds.
The higher than average Jewish vote in Thornhill (largest in Canada) has been pandered to by both Conservatives and Liberals. It will be very interesting to see how the Prime Minister’s recent trip to Israel plays in a provincial by-election. There is no question that Mr. Harper’s trip had absolutely no diplomatic context and he took a full Airbus of MPs, rabbis and others to impress Jewish voters. And why Thornhill Provincial Conservative candidate Gila Martow would have that nice big picture of herself, Prime Minister Harper and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on her web site, we have no idea.
The New Democrats are not a factor in Thornhill. The contest is between Tim Hudak’s Conservative candidate and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal candidate. And that is why we wrote originally that calling this by-election instead of a general election was one of the dumbest ideas that we have seen yet from Premier (briefly) Wynne.
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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry
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