Sometimes it is hard to determine if Toronto Star Quebec political analyst Chantal Hébert is serious or just firing for effect. Taking a meaningless poll of Quebec federal political leanings as gospel is like those who assured us that the Parti Québécois was going to win the last provincial election. Quebec voters are the most volatile in Canada and the challenge to Chantal is to keep up with the constant shift. What she would be best not to do is show her pessimism.
Chantal tells us that currently CROP, the Montreal polling firm, is suggesting that their figures show a substantial support federally for Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats. And that surprises who? After the huge swing back to the provincial Liberals in the recent election, you could expect a period of regrouping federally. Nobody has anything guaranteed as we head for a 2015 federal election. Count on many more changes in direction for Quebec in the intervening time.
What we know for sure is that Quebec has written off Prime Minister Harper and his Conservatives. Harper, in turn, has written off Quebec and that opens the door to a range of options. The only objective the Conservatives might still have in Quebec is to leave (figuratively) scorched earth for Trudeau and his Liberals. If Harper can figure a way to help the New Democrats, the Bloc, the Greens or anyone else to slice and dice the Liberals, he will do it.
We certainly agree that the New Democrats could end up with more seats in Quebec than they held after the 2006 federal election. That could be four or five seats. It will be nowhere near the figures from 2011 when the federal Liberals crashed. Sure, a few of the newer New Democrats have turned out to be fair to middling retail politicians but that can hardly be said for all of them. Mulcair’s caucus losses in Quebec next year will be staggering.
Whether anyone can resurrect the Bloc Québécoise in time for the 2015 election is highly problematical. That cowboy has not ridden his horse over the pass yet.
But there are no free ridings for Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals. After the mess Trudeau’s organizer David MacNaughton has made in Ontario, we can only hope Justin has made better choices of lieutenants in Quebec. Quebec expects there will be appointed candidates and everything will be as before. Justin has to surprise people in Quebec. He has to be daring and he has to offer a new democracy. Will he do it? Is Chantal pessimistic about that too?
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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry
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