How can you have a race without a morning line? The political parties are at post and the gamblers among us need more than just performance statistics to compute their bets. The morning line gives you a starting point for your betting convenience.
But please remember, these figures cannot factor in the potential fouls, injuries, accidents and sprints that can occur. If you want a sure bet, wait for the exit polls.
Ontario Liberal Party: 2 – 5
As the party presently in power, this is the Liberal’s election to lose. The poor showing in 2011 of only 53 of the 107 seats cost the party the leadership of Dalton McGuinty and the taking of the leadership reins by Torontonian Kathleen Wynne. The staggering cost of cancelling two gas-fired generating plants to try to stave off defeat in the 2011 election is the legacy Mr. McGuinty left Ms. Wynne. It has not been smooth sailing for the first declared lesbian to lead a political party in Ontario.
Ms. Wynne’s main advantage continues to be the weaknesses of her opponents. She has chosen to fight the election from a somewhat left-wing stance. Her party’s promises on transportation solutions are saleable and the retirement pension scheme has potential to aid Ontario retirees in the future.
At this time, we expect the Liberals to hold on to as many as 48 seats in the Legislature.
Ontario Progressive Conservative Party: 2 – 1
This is the sucker bet you do not want to take. Ontario Conservative Leader Tim Hudak leads a mixed bag of out-of-touch Libertarians, Ontario Landowner members and other right-wing activists who can embarrass a Bill Davis era Conservative. Hudak himself is a pale clone of former Premier Mike Harris and he has tried a number of approaches to policy that leave voters either scratching their heads or running for cover. Who knows what clichés he will run on this time but he is expected to lose ground. If the Conservatives do not get 40 seats this time, they will quickly dump Timmy.
Ontario New Democratic Party: 10 – 1
The one thing you can say about Ontario’s New Democrats is that they have nowhere to go but up. And where is Bob Rae now that they could really use him? While the party has an embarrassing lack of direction and no real leadership, Ontario voters might be inclined to give the party a bit more support this time out. What Ontario would really like is a working coalition of the New Democrats and the more progressive Liberals. That could happen if the New Democrats can come back with more than 30 seats.
But we will get into this a little deeper during the campaign. It should be interesting.
-30-
Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry
Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]