Here we are less than half way into the Ontario provincial election and the pollsters are getting more attention than the politicians. Get a life folks. This is far from over.
Where does this election stand when as many as half the voters are not even aware of when the vote will be held? Sure there are lots of active, knowledgeable voters who would love to stick it to the arrogant Liberals but they know there is no alternative. What do you expect them to tell the pollsters? They want to get even.
But Ontario voters are not stupid. They are savvy voters with deep concerns about the economy in this province. They agree that the Liberals under McGuinty did lots of things that did not like. They see nothing new or relevant about Kathleen Wynne as premier. They know that Timmy Hudak is just a cheap clone of former Premier Mike Harris. He is not even as bright or as interesting a person. How do you even equate that guy to federal Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper?
Do you know why the pollsters can claim any accuracy in their reading of the entrails? They do rolling polls throughout the campaigns and at the end they are often right.
But less than halfway into a campaign, the pollsters have no idea what is happening. It is like a camp counsellor going around a large dormitory of kids to wake them up for breakfast. You have to go back and check on half of them just to see if they made it out of bed. It is like about half the voters at this stage will ask: ‘What election?’
When many pollsters are using automated telephone calls to households where three-year olds answer the phone, you expect accuracy? And they are just as bad as the Internet survey panels that ask about your favourite douches and then ask: ‘And how are you going to vote, sir?’
As a politician, what you really want from the pollsters at this stage of the campaign is to see how voters are responding to key policies and some early trend analysis. How people are going to vote is more a reflection of how they might normally vote. You do not get much thinking in the answers.
What you would dearly love to know at this stage of the campaign is how about ten per cent of the voters might vote—if they get to the polls. These are the voters who will really decide the election and the pollsters have absolutely no idea who they are.
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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry
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