With at least 14 months to go before the expected federal election, you would be wise to hold off placing bets. And it has little to do with the pollsters who see Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau leapfrogging his way ahead of both Prime Minister Stephen Harper and New Democrat Leader Thomas Mulcair. It is the people running the Liberal campaign that have us worried.
The one thing you can count on over the next year is that the strategic plan necessary for the Liberals to win is going to have to change at least three times. The first change will be when the team around Trudeau realize that he does not even look like a Prime Minister and he needs stronger positioning in that role. He hardly needs to be as much of a stuffed shirt as Stephen Harper but he has to look like he can be prime ministerial.
The second change is harder to forecast because it is that point in time next year when the news media realize that Canada’s economy is going south. The problem for the team is that Justin Trudeau has absolutely no credibility in economics and his caucus is also light on possible finance ministers. The team has to sort through their candidate material for next fall and select their potential saviour—convince him or her and build an aura of action around the person.
The third possible change is not guaranteed but it is Stephen Harper’s resignation and having a new leader selected by the Conservatives. That could happen this fall with the new leader in place as prime minister in May or June. That is a serious game changer. And the new leader for the Conservatives might not be brushed off as easily as just having an interesting summer job.
There are many other things that can happen between now and the election. What we are concerned about is this team’s ability to respond strategically. It is one thing to roll with the punches through the period in time. It is another thing to take strategic advantage of whatever happens. We would question whether the team that appears to have been chosen for their compatibility with Trudeau are up to it.
It is a young team. They have an interesting mix of experience so nobody should sell them short. The only specific question mark is the choice of Dan Gagnier as national election campaign co-chair. Maybe the balance is his co-chair, the young and enthusiastic Katie Telford. Dan is a civil servant and we could not imagine a further departure from previous co-chairs such as the late Keith Davey or Senator David Smith. Their strength was their extensive knowledge of the people and the party.
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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry
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