Olivia Chow has become something of a long shot in Toronto’s 2014 mayoralty contest. After a strong campaign launch in the spring, it has become clear to the media and the people hearing her speak that she lacks the one key ingredient Torontonians want: leadership. With a fractious, overly self-important council, her voice cannot be heard.
While Chow was a very sympathetic figure at the state funeral for Jack Layton, that is not an image that can be played at this time. Toronto needs cooperation, conciliation and concern. This is a city that needs so desperately to recreate itself in an environment of businesslike attention to detail, development and decency. Toronto needs to build on the strengths that the rest of the world sees in the city.
And Toronto hardly needs Chow to defeat Rob Ford. Rob Ford can defeat himself. Chow’s biggest mistake so far in this campaign was to turn people in her campaign loose on her real competitor, John Tory. They have treated a decent man despicably. They have attacked him without seeming to care for truth or reason.
But Toronto is not buying it. We are entering the real campaign for the mayoralty now and the challenge for the candidates is to articulate their vision for the city. And they have to be able to show that it is vision that can be endorsed by council. Without some broad cooperation on council, the mayor is just another vote.
While municipal candidates try to appear above their political leanings, they need that base vote to be in the race. Olivia Chow is a New Democrat. That is not hidden. While some Conservative and Liberal party members might be in her camp, her trust is in the NDP workers she has known for years. Her base is in downtown Toronto. We saw her base in Trinity-Spadina go down to the Liberals in the by-election to replace her.
While the lack of a strong Liberal in the mayoralty race frees party members to support her, it is not a comfortable alliance. There appears to be limited trust. What we are seeing as the race comes out of the back stretch is a flat line in support for Chow. She has hit a ceiling and is unable to grow support from here.
As more and more voters recognize her spoiler role in this race, her support will actually decline. People will switch from Chow to Tory to ensure the defeat of Rob Ford. She cannot win, she might not even place; she is just a show bet.
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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry
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