It is a tough job. When you have to have two speeches ready, you are likely to have to use the losing one. Writers hate them and politicians hate them. Your first one tells all about how you knew you were going to win. Your second one admits the loss but finds good signs in what happened. And if you cannot find something to crow about in the outcome, you are not much of a politician.
The Whitby-Oshawa by-election yesterday was one of those times. We knew that the Liberal’s biggest problem in winning was getting out the troops to in turn get out the vote. The result was better than we thought it would be. That speaks volumes.
It says that Liberal candidate Celina Caesar-Chavannes can win the riding next year—the ghost of Jim Flaherty was entitled to one more kick at the cat.
It spells serious trouble for Prime Minister Harper’s Conservatives next year. It confirms the probability of the federal Liberals taking more than 70 ridings in Ontario.
It tells us that New Democratic Leader Thomas Mulcair is in more trouble than we expected. Whitby-Oshawa used to be an area of strong union strength. New Democrat Trish McAuliffe, who came second in 2011, could not even garner 10 per cent of the vote this time. This is trouble with a capitol “T” for Mulcair.
But we best not lose sight of the messages it sends to the Liberals. It shows us that Justin Trudeau is not invincible. He is not “le Dauphin” who can just wave some magic wand and produce victories. He has to prove that he can be democratic. He has to prove that he will listen to the Liberal grass roots. He and his tight little team need to smarten up.
Canadians do not need to hear that the future is Liberal. They need to hear what that Liberal future holds. We need to start talking clearly about policies and plans. We have much to rebuild in Canada. People need to hear the Liberal priorities.
In both speeches prepared for last night, we would be seriously remiss not to recognize the great work of the Whitby-Oshawa Liberals and their superb candidate. They all worked hard. They knew how tough it would be from the beginning and they all did their part and they did it well. Congratulations.
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Copyright 2014 © Peter Lowry
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