No matter when the Prime Minister decides to call the election (we will still give odds on October), the only important question is: Can he be beaten? We would advise all you pundits, pollsters and politicos to hold off your bets until the writ comes down. That is when Babel-on-the-Bay will publish its much awaited Morning Line.
And who knows? The election at that point might be an easy ramble for one of the three parties. It could also look like a dead heat. We just do not know at this time. There is ground to cover.
Coming from the back stretch the Hair has the most negatives to overcome. He has been slammed, reviled, belittled and found wanting. And that is just within the Conservative Party of Canada.
His Finance Minister has yet to present the budget that will show the hole in the tar sands plans. The Hair is tempted by the terrorist ticket. He is going to look for more involvement in the current Crusade in Iraq. The Hair is a wily one.
And he disquiets Canadians. They see the Hair as cold and autocratic, a mean man who micro-manages a parliament that he appears to despise. And yet, for all his foolish economic failures, they think he is the best manager of the economy. Here is a guy who panders to ethnic and religious groups for their support and yet gets solid support from the white-bread one per cent.
The one thing you can say about the Hair is that you either hate him or love him. There is little middle ground. As long as there are two other parties, the Hair has a chance of winning the election.
What is obvious is that the Hair has to destroy the Liberal chances. He has to make sure that the New Democrats keep the majority of Quebec seats. The Hair has no chance in Quebec. They hate him there. We should hate him even more in Ontario.
Ontario and British Columbia are the only two provinces where it is a straight out three-party battle. With the Conservatives and New Democrats constantly bashing the Liberals for the next nine months, Liberal candidates need to be made of sterner stuff.
There will be more testing of the waters in the spring and summer but by Labour Day, the die will be cast. We will be better able to handicap the parties and their leaders by then. Just bear in mind that no matter how many times we have forecast winners, no handicapper can see the future. There is no sure thing.
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Copyright 2015 © Peter Lowry
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