And you thought apps for your iPhone were big business. It seems that marketing research is the far more volatile business today. Consumer product manufacturers are constantly at their doors asking the gurus to bless or condemn their latest creations. Even established products need to be questioned as to how their products’ life cycles are ordained. Mind you, the polling sages are still hustling political polls to titillate us and promote their brands.
And it is the political polls that the consumers see. These are of course aided and abetted by the news media who find it cheap filler, enabling desk-bound reporters to pontificate on the political scene.
We even have compilations of most available polls seeking consensus in a morass of conflicting techniques, algorithms and queries and timing. Recently this led to the conclusion that the three political parties are in some sort of political dead heat for the fall election. And if you believe that you can also invest in some lovely muskeg land they have available north of Bancroft, Ontario.
Mind you there is considerable creativity that they put into identifying their accuracy in predicting elections. Proving that this is one of those 19 times out of 20 that they claim to be within 3 or 4 percentage points can be quite a stretch. Babel-on-the-Bay will pit its political prognostications against any polling firm anytime. Our only stipulation is that it has to be an election in which we have some experience.
You can be assured that Babel-on-the-Bay’s Morning Line is never based on polls. It is based on analysis of the political situation and how the voters are reacting to the various parties’ propositions. As in horse racing, our Morning Line (due out on the federal election after the writ comes down) is an aid to punters who need opening odds for the upcoming races. It is just handicapping not a definitive analysis of the actual voting. We have seen elections that have been decided the day before the polls were open. We do not make our bets too early in the game.
In today’s polling, you need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the various standard techniques. Automated telephone polling is dirt cheap and about as reliable. Telephone coincidental polling has fallen into disrepute because of the difficulty in getting an accurate sample. Focus groups are useful but cannot be equated to the broader market. Internet panels are becoming a popular tool but incentives for the panelists can override truth sometimes. And nothing is sillier than a pro or con poll based on a media story or program—you create a bias and then wonder why the poll goes that way.
Our advice to all voters is to ignore the polls and vote for how you feel about it.
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Copyright 2015 © Peter Lowry
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