You get the impression that the quiet of the federal Liberal campaign is just the wariness of a trap about to be sprung. Maybe the Liberals are waiting to see how parents respond to the Conservative bribe. It seems to be the only thing happening. At this time in the summer the television networks are running reruns of reruns, voters are only interested in tomorrow’s weather and political pundits are taking some time off. It is a time for leaders to be attending barbeques, debate preparation sessions and getting ready for the stretch run in September and October.
And if you are worried about some political polling, you are wasting time and energy. The real national campaign starts in September. Sure the candidates are out there testing the voters, dropping throw-away literature and talking to them at their doors but even that activity will not be widespread until the kids go back to school.
Judging by the television commercials, there seems to be something going on but nothing worth worrying about. And if the Conservatives think they are impacting the Liberal vote, they might not realize that they are doing Trudeau a favour by keeping his name in front of the voters. And the ‘Trudeau’s not ready’ ads are boring Conservative voters, delighting NDP supporters and invigorating the Liberal supporters. Harper’s strategy is not only wrong but it is backfiring on him.
It was amusing to see last week that New Democrat supporter Robin V. Sears of Earnscliffe Strategy in Ottawa is going to handicap the odds on the October 19 election for the Toronto Star. His major problem is that the Star wants to publish the findings of his handicapping this week.
Babel-on-the-Bay has always qualified its Morning Line commentaries on elections because we publish them after the writ is issued (a minimum of 37 days before a federal election). This guy thinks he knows what is going on three months before the vote. Any track aficionado knows that odds posted more than a day before the race are nothing more than speculation.
With the Conservatives keeping the Trudeau name in front of the voters, he can spend time learning the ‘adlibs’ he is going to use instead of shooting from the lip in the coming race for the wire. It matters little whether Mr. Harper attends the debates or not. The attention will be on Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau. The voters have already decided that Stephen Harper is past his ‘best before’ date. He will be gone in November.
It is at the debates that the voters will choose between to the two opposition leaders. It is when the voters will realize that Mulcair lacks the leadership ability. The debates are most likely to put the mantle of PM on Trudeau. The voters likely think he is ready now.
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Copyright 2015 © Peter Lowry
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