Despite the less than accurate opinion polls showing all three major parties in a statistical tie, the trends are moving in the correct directions. There is no question but that the Conservatives are barely going through the motions, the New Democrats are falling off from their peak and the Liberal Party is on the upswing.
Maybe a week before the actual election there will be a further up-tick but at this time we are confident there will be at least a minority Liberal government on October 20. The problem is Quebec. At this time, we are not seeing any clear signs of movement in the province. This is despite the fact that the Bloc seems dead in the water. The Tories in Quebec are lost. And the NDP has nowhere to grow.
But the Liberals are coming on strong in the Atlantic and Ontario. Before the polls close in Central Daylight Time on October 19, a minority Liberal government can probably be assured. If Quebec moves into the mainstream and elects more Liberal members, it could give the Liberals a majority. The upcoming French-language debates might prove the opportunity that the Liberals need.
There are a number of factors impacting the election to-date. They are the English-language debate in Toronto, testimony at the Duffy trial in Ottawa, the fact of a recession in the Canadian economy, and the desperate attempts of refugees trying to escape the wars and economic deprivation of the Middle East and North Africa. All of these events helped to erode confidence in the Conservatives. Canadians are seeing them as mean-spirited, cruel and dishonest.
The English language debate early in the campaign changed people’s thinking on the Conservative attack ads claiming the Liberal leader was too young. With Justin Trudeau more than holding his own, the attack ads have lost traction.
The surprise decision of the Liberals to use deficit financing to recover from the current recession and employment needs also made a difference. It broke the Liberals free of the sameness of the campaign to-date. It was the equivalent of a young couple taking out a mortgage when buying a house and only frightened hide-bound conservatives.
It is the former progressives of the Conservative Party who are deserting Stephen Harper. It is not yet a rout but these voters are more likely to support the resurrected Liberals than the New Democrats.
And the more the Liberal campaign differentiates itself from the newly right-wing New Democrats for the remainder of the campaign, the more seats the Liberals can win.
-30-
Copyright 2015 © Peter Lowry
Complaints, comments, criticisms and compliments can be sent to [email protected]