Canadians have always recognized politics as a blood sport. There is no quarter given. Nice gals and guys finish last. And in a campaign this year more noted for its mistakes than its strong points, analysis of the results might take some time to sort out.
From what we know now (and things are still subject to change) it seems unlikely to be a majority government. There is no question but if Canada continues through the campaign tangled in a niqab, we will be the losers for it. There are more important questions to address as we go down to the wire—from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership to women’s issues to the needs of our aboriginals to alleviating poverty.
But Canada remains a country divided against itself. It is a country of regions. Here is a brief summary, starting in the East:
Little can change the status in the Atlantic provinces. The consensus there continues to support the Liberals.
The Conservatives and their allies the Bloc are flaunting bigotry across Quebec and we can only hope that decency prevails.
The New Democrats like to think of Ontario by its five regions. They expect a small share of the ridings in the north and southwest and are leaving most of the seats in the Greater Toronto and Ottawa areas to the Liberals. There is also a swath of rural ridings across the middle of the province where the Conservatives are fighting it out with the Liberals. If the New Democrats really believed in strategic voting, they could deliver a number of those ridings to the Liberals and declare finis to the Conservatives.
But can you imagine the NDP’s Olivia Chow saying vote Liberal? Or the Liberal’s Bill Blair saying vote NDP? That is as likely as you could expect strategic voting to work. Sure there will be some strategic voting in Ontario but not enough to really notice or make a difference.
Nor is strategic voting going to be a factor in the West. Manitoba is listed in the ‘no change’ category. If there are changes coming there, we have missed the messages.
But Alberta and Saskatchewan could provide some surprises. It is more likely a few new Liberal seats than any major shift to the NDP. There are those in the West wishing that Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi was running in this federal election. He brings a breath of fresh air to Alberta politics.
It looks like British Columbia will be the country’s decider on October 20. With no party expected to have a majority, B.C. voters will bring their usual surprise results to the table. The only thing we are confident of is that it will not be Conservative.
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Copyright 2015 © Peter Lowry
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