A friend called the other evening. He wanted to know who would win tonight’s provincial by-election in Christine Elliott’s former electoral district of Whitby-Oshawa. Once again we had to patiently explain that it is impossible to predict. The opinion polls that say the Conservatives have the best chance are useless. The big rally the other night with Prime Minister Trudeau supporting the provincial Liberal was excessive. And Ontario Conservative Leader Patrick Brown spending his time trying to teach the PC candidate how to win is silly.
The key today is the number of troops each side can get motivated and working to get out the identified vote for their candidate. Included in the planning had better be batteries in their cars able to withstand -8 degrees Celsius for constant short-haul driving. (And, at that temperature, you can count on Ontario Motor League to be overloaded all day.)
The Liberals believe that their throngs of political staffers from Queen’s Park are a secret weapon. They are a secret alright. You will find most of them cooped at a local Tim’s for the day telling each other how important they are. (We used to refer to that type of help as a Children’s Crusade.)
In days gone by we would have worried about the potential strength of the local autoworkers for the New Democratic candidate. You will probably find more of those union people working for the Liberal than for the NDP.
But despite a likely turnout of around 30 per cent of voters, there are important lessons to be learned today. Anything less than a 40 per cent vote for the Conservative will be considered a negative for Leader Patrick Brown. Anything more than a 40 per cent vote for the Liberal will shore up Premier Kathleen Wynne’s position. Anything less than 20 per cent for the NDP will be blamed on NDP Leader Andrea Horwath.
The real reason for the effort in Whitby-Oshawa today is to undermine the position of PC Leader Patrick Brown. The reason for the by-election is Christine Elliott’s distaste for her political party’s new leader. As well as being the widow of the late Conservative finance minister Jim Flaherty, Elliott is well regarded in the riding. A lot depends on how many Conservatives in the riding really understand why she resigned.
As leaders go, it would be hard to imagine Patrick Brown having the leadership skills to lead a vulture to road-kill. Conversely, he does know about winning.
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Copyright 2016 © Peter Lowry
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